2017 E3 Xbox Media Briefing, Summary in 1st post

Parksey wrote:£450 is a ridiculous price for mid-gen upgrade.

I agree that £450 is a lot of money whether mid-gen on not. It's worth remembering, though, that this machine's GPU is 4.5 times as powerful as a standard Xbox One (which, in turn was 5.5 times as powerful as a 360). I'm assuming that it's no coincidence that there are 4 times as many pixels on a 4k screen than a 1080p one.

I'm expecting parity in most things between the standard One and the X - just one can output to 4k.

The problem is, they are still going have to largely cater to that console which is 4.5 times weaker. With a full generational leap, sure, you start the new one with a few last-gen ports and remasters and the like, and you see developers cater to their existing markets. However, eventually you get most consumers crossing over to the more powerful hardware, and then that fully becomes your new market.

Here, these mid-gen upgrades are arguably only ever going to be a niche purchase and their owners will occupy the minority portion of their audience. And as "no-one will get left behind" what you are effectively doing is just giving that minority nice "bonuses".

It's a Catch-22 situation, people don't upgrade because they don't want to shell out nearly half a grand for these small optional bonuses, and the developers can't fully utilise that extra power because most people don't want to upgrade so they have to cater to the older consoles, which have the largest percentage of the market by far, owned by people who won't upgrade because developers aren't making games that push the hardware past what they already know and it goes on forever.

What you could end up with is neither portion of the market being satisfied. The older console owners might complain if the developers forget about them, and 80% of the userbase, by releasing a game with unstable frame rates or poorly optimized for the base hardware (which, let's face it, has been a feature of this gen since launch anyway regardless of a two-tiered system). The new console owners might be annoyed that they have to slow down in order to let the less-powerful ones keep pace, like a brand new Ferrari being capped at 30mph so you don't lose the guy behind you in the 1985 Vauxhall Astra.

It's probably a good business decision on the part of MS/Sony, with these new consoles presumably taking less time and effort to develop than a completely next-gen one, and they get to push them as serious upgrades for serious gamers and try and pocket an extra 400 quid off them that they wouldn't get if you stuck to traditional generational model. If 20% of your userbase upgrade, then 20% of a few hundred million or whatever can still generate a decent amount. The PS4 has a userbase of 54 million, so if you can sell 10.8 million Pro consoles at £350 a pop then you've made roughly £3.7 billion by my estimation. And you've done it by pushing a few extra little bonuses when your existing hardware is only two and a half/three years old.

It's debatable whether a two-tiered system is great for gamers and developers, for the reasons I've previously mentioned, where you have to cater to two consoles but perhaps neither fully embracing either. You'll end up with some games that barely use the extra power, and some that presumably use too much, run like gooseberry fool and piss off the existing owners.

There's a slight flaw in your argument though, are you suggesting that the Xbox One is held back by the 360 because it can run those games?

Photek wrote:There's a slight flaw in your argument though, are you suggesting that the Xbox One is held back by the 360 because it can run those games?

He obviously isn't saying that.

The Xbone can run 360 games, but MS haven't said that every Xbone game has to run on a 360.

With the XboneX MS have said that all XboneX games have to run on a bog standard Xbone.

There will be a cut off point though.

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Logically there will have to be at some stage.

You alright man? Odd to see you post without a ' '

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Will wait for Xbox Two X.

Saint of Killers wrote:Will wait for Xbox Two X.

Interesting to see how these mid gen upgrades affect the start of next-gen.

Would PS4 have sold so well so fast if people knew a 4K iteration was 3 years down the road, would people hold out for PS5 Pro and Xbox Two X?

Photek wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Logically there will have to be at some stage.

You alright man? Odd to see you post without a ' '

A is only used if I am being sarcastic or messing around.

Logically has nothing to do with it. Logically we will be expecting the Xbox Two in a couple/few years time which will be the start of the new generation, as per normal and the Xbone and XboneX machines will be left behind.

I know you are convinced that MS are moving towards a smartphone style incremental upgrades, but I have seen no evidence of that, especially considering they kept the "One" part of the branding for this.

NickSCFC wrote:

Saint of Killers wrote:Will wait for Xbox Two X.

Interesting to see how these mid gen upgrades affect the start of next-gen.

Would PS4 have sold so well so fast if people knew a 4K iteration was 3 years down the road, would people hold out for PS5 Pro and Xbox Two X?

I think they'll affect multi console buyers more than those who buy one + a Nintendo console. So whilst this gen they bought everything that was released upon launch, next gen they may just buy 2 on launch, with the third being bought once the mid-gen iteration is released.

As a solo console owner, mid-gen upgrades is *way* down the list of negatives which would dissuade me from buying a console.

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Logically there will have to be at some stage.

You alright man? Odd to see you post without a ' '

Logically has nothing to do with it. Logically we will be expecting the Xbox Two in a couple/few years time which will be the start of the new generation, as per normal and the Xbone and XboneX machines will be left behind.

Some of the boffins over at NeoGaf expect that to be 2020, at which point Zen CPU, Vega GPU and 16GB RAM should be affordable.

As they'll stick with X86 backwards compatibility should be a doddle too.

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Logically there will have to be at some stage.

You alright man? Odd to see you post without a ' '

A is only used if I am being sarcastic or messing around.

Logically has nothing to do with it. Logically we will be expecting the Xbox Two in a couple/few years time which will be the start of the new generation, as per normal and the Xbone and XboneX machines will be left behind.

I know you are convinced that MS are moving towards a smartphone style incremental upgrades, but I have seen no evidence of that, especially considering they kept the "One" part of the branding for this.

They kept the One so they didn't confuse anyone that it wouldn't play X1 games. As for the smartphone stuff, it's not solely my opinion, Phil was asked about it several times and he agrees to a point.

Photek wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Photek wrote:There will be a cut off point though.

Source?

Logically there will have to be at some stage.

You alright man? Odd to see you post without a ' '

A is only used if I am being sarcastic or messing around.

Logically has nothing to do with it. Logically we will be expecting the Xbox Two in a couple/few years time which will be the start of the new generation, as per normal and the Xbone and XboneX machines will be left behind.

I know you are convinced that MS are moving towards a smartphone style incremental upgrades, but I have seen no evidence of that, especially considering they kept the "One" part of the branding for this.

They kept the One so they didn't confuse anyone that it wouldn't play X1 games. As for the smartphone stuff, it's not solely my opinion, Phil was asked about it several times and he agrees to a point.

“to a point” is not the same as there being a cutoff point for XboneX to get its own exclusives.

Let’s face it, what is most likely to happen is that they will continue to sell standard Xbone alongside XboneX. XboneX is not likely to sell very well but might manage to sell amongst the hardcore Xbox fans. In 3 years or so, MS will release Xbox Two and both types of Xbone will be left behind as per every other console generation.

MS do seem to be putting effort into BC and so I would expect the XB2 to play all of the older games, but it will not be smartphone style incremental upgrades on consoles.

People expecting PS4 and XBO X to be "forwards compatible" and play next-gen games come 2020 are in for a shock. Even Mark Cerney has stated that PS4 Pro is simply a "mid-gen upgrade" for people who really want 4K, and Phil has referred to XBO X as "premium".

When PS5 and Xbox Two launch, you WILL be left behind.

Well no, its not going to be a yearly increment. The long and short of its, MS own Windows and through that they knew how many 4K capable machines were around and also how many games released these days are scalable and also which ones have 4K/UHD textures. They seen a tipping point and decided to act. He says the next jump in hardware will be when the stats say its becoming the norm, next X1 could be 8K but that's a few years off yet.

I expect every Xbox supported game will show the S and X at end of it as per the E3 videos. Possibly bang the 'most powerful console' on earth bullshit aswell for a bit. I feel ok about getting one, I feel it will future proof it to some extent maybe negating me getting Xbox Two... it all depends.

Photek wrote:Well no, its not going to be a yearly increment.

Nobody said anything about annual. Saying "smartphone style incremental upgrades didn't mean the exact same yearly model.

The long and short of its, MS own Windows and through that they knew how many 4K capable machines were around and also how many games released these days are scalable and also which ones have 4K/UHD textures. They seen a tipping point and decided to act.

Yes, but that only points to XboneX being a mid-gen upgrade.

He says the next jump in hardware will be when the stats say its becoming the norm, next X1 could be 8K but that's a few years off yet.

I will happily bet you a billion Euros that the Xbox One will never ever have an 8K edition.

I expect every Xbox supported game will show the S and X at end of it as per the E3 videos. Possibly bang the 'most powerful console' on earth bullshit aswell for a bit. I feel ok about getting one, I feel it will future proof it to some extent maybe negating me getting Xbox Two... it all depends.

That's great if you feel you are going to enjoy the console and are looking forward to 4K gaming. I refuse to believe you will not be the first in the queue for an Xbox Two though. (there's that smiley you wanted).

For me, it seems pointless unless it gets some exclusives. I'll wait for X2 in 2020.

For me mid gen upgrades means I can go back to having both companies machines but the purchases will be spread and I'll end up with with a refresh about every 3 years so I should in theory always have one of the strongest machines of that generation at the time.
Next gen for me will be PS5 and Xbox 2X so no worse than just buying both at launch for previous generations.

There's no way developers working to release next-gen games for 2020 and beyond will accept being held back by having to support PS4 Pro and XBO X's gooseberry fool Jaguar CPUs, no way.