Are You Infected? Day 5 - GAME OVER - pages 58 and 59

May as well, they'll be the first that the aplha may target.

Brilliant. :dread:

This has started well!

I guess I'm I'm favour of no lynch at least for the first night.

I don't like the dies of no lynch, I know there is a good chance if missing the alpha, however it can lead to evidence and a no lunch does bugger all.

After a few people have now come out with the "ERRMERRGERRRD NO PM" I would half expect the alpha to make a claim and appear like a plank so I am inclined to aim for one of them as it is a potential way for an alpha to hide a bit at least, and at this point there is naff all to go on so might give some sort of target group while we see what comes about.

I agree, no lunch does bugger all. Can't achieve anything on an empty stomach! I believe Qikz has some potatoes.

Errkal wrote:I don't like the dies of no lynch, I know there is a good chance if missing the alpha, however it can lead to evidence and a no lunch does bugger all.

After a few people have now come out with the "ERRMERRGERRRD NO PM" I would half expect the alpha to make a claim and appear like a plank so I am inclined to aim for one of them as it is a potential way for an alpha to hide a bit at least, and at this point there is naff all to go on so might give some sort of target group while we see what comes about.

It's nnot going to lead to evidence if we kill a power role.

Nobody at this stage will have any idea who anyone else is. At this stage all we know is there is one bad guy alive. Nobody will be voting in a certain way tonight and there's no way you can establish a voting pattern based on a completely random vote. All you're doing is removing an extra target for the Alpha from the game and making iit more likely he'll strike an important target.

Qikz wrote:
Errkal wrote:I don't like the dies of no lynch, I know there is a good chance if missing the alpha, however it can lead to evidence and a no lunch does bugger all.

After a few people have now come out with the "ERRMERRGERRRD NO PM" I would half expect the alpha to make a claim and appear like a plank so I am inclined to aim for one of them as it is a potential way for an alpha to hide a bit at least, and at this point there is naff all to go on so might give some sort of target group while we see what comes about.

It's nnot going to lead to evidence if we kill a power role.

Nobody at this stage will have any idea who anyone else is. At this stage all we know is there is one bad guy alive. Nobody will be voting in a certain way tonight and there's no way you can establish a voting pattern based on a completely random vote. All you're doing is removing an extra target for the Alpha from the game and making iit more likely he'll strike an important target.

I'm not saying they will vote a certai. away, but seen as the role pm sthuff is you only get a pm if you have a role and some didn't read that it could be a good way for an alpha to hide by being a numpty that didn't read.

Either way no lynch does nothing g at all for us, a lynch "could" gain us some information.

Odds are if we dont lynch we will have this same conversation tomorrow and then the day after, by which point there are many many infected as if I read it right the alpha gets to infect incrementally more people each day.

If you run the numbers with a simple model that assumes mayors are chosen randomly, we have about a 15% 'base' chance of winning the game, of course not accounting for intervention by special roles or detective work.

Out of 100,000 simulated games, we lose about 57,000 on Day 4 and about 28,000 on Day 5. (None lasted to Day 6.) Most of our victories - 4100 - came by eliminating the Alpha on Day 1. There were 3900 victories on Day 2, 3600 on Day 3, 3100 on Day 4 and only 700 on Day 5.

Because this is a short game in which time is of the essence, I don't think we can sit on our hands for the first day.

Pancake wrote:I agree, no lunch does bugger all. Can't achieve anything on an empty stomach! I believe Qikz has some potatoes.

On one hand, I'd like to lynch Errkal for his continued spelling shenanigans, on the other hand, I tend to agree with him that it is frustrating and generally a bit gooseberry fool to not take any action.

Can we glean anything at all from the message sent by Mr Dicks, or is Moggy just taking the piss out of himself for what happened in his last game?

One day I will find an on screen keyboard that doesnt screw me over.

I sent Moggy my PM. I chose Drumstick, because of the people who haven't posted in this thread yet he's been the most active elsewhere on the board (by my quick scan, at least). Maybe he's laying low, maybe he just hasn't realised the game's started, but I had to choose someone so there you go.

Not expecting great things, but I'll stand by the argument that trying something - with a low probability of winning - is better than sitting around waiting to lose, and I think looking objectively at how this game is structured backs up that viewpoint.

Yup I agree.

This looks like a game that is very much punish waiting and seeing, it is going to be a go for it sort of a game.

Wouldn't have been my choice but fair enough. It does at least give us a bit of info I suppose.

Your leader decided to incinerate Drumstick.

He was taken to the fire and thrown in. His screams of pain and torment echo throughout the facility.

He was:

Sorry Drumstick.

Oh strawberry float. I need proper food.

Corazon de Leon

strawberry floating hell Karl, just launch a solid bloke and good player into the fire on day one, nicely played. :lol:

Karl wrote:If you run the numbers with a simple model that assumes mayors are chosen randomly, we have about a 15% 'base' chance of winning the game, of course not accounting for intervention by special roles or detective work.

Out of 100,000 simulated games, we lose about 57,000 on Day 4 and about 28,000 on Day 5. (None lasted to Day 6.) Most of our victories - 4100 - came by eliminating the Alpha on Day 1. There were 3900 victories on Day 2, 3600 on Day 3, 3100 on Day 4 and only 700 on Day 5.

Because this is a short game in which time is of the essence, I don't think we can sit on our hands for the first day.

This is the set of content you just don't get on SONM.

Hate it when I find an innocent human in my lunch

Umm... OK?

Haven't even got a PM hence why I haven't read this thread. Nevermind. Odd choice but there you go.

Pissing no pm posters

Are You Infected? Day 5 - GAME OVER - pages 58 and 59

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