Are You Infected? Day Fourteen - Emperor BID0

Drumstick wrote:It's a random list - how is it important that there is a cluster of key roles in the middle of a small segment of the player list, of which the order has been randomised?

I'm not dismissing this as an idea, I just don't understand.

The roles in the middle are all special. Its too clear to ignore.

Falsey wrote:I dont want to say this, but I think we have a problem here.

Im looking in the block of names here.

Preezy
Hyperion
JChalmers
abcd
Albear
Falsey
Corazon de Leon
Riksilver
Zartan
Diabolito
Euan707
Drumstick
DML
FatDaz

Blue names are players I know to either definately have a power or am 99% sure.
Green are players who have claimed here or in PM that they have a role. Preezy and Daz might be a logical stretch, but I think there is a group in here that might hold some friendlies and our potential infected scientist.

Ive edited this list because Diabolito and Zartan were listed twice (my error). Its now an even tighter map.

Could someone please work out how many 'naturally immune' players there were to begin with in the game? It should be possible by looking at the post where Moggy said he removed half, and then said how many more humans there are now.

I can then work out what the chances of there being a run of five of those names in a random list are, and we can make a solid decision about whether we believe it is a coincidence or not.

I don't really think is in the spirit of the game to be honest. As Rhubarb has said, would be a cheap win to profit from a lapse by Moggy. I'd rather win through genuine story-driven detective work, but that's just the Batman in me.

Corazon de Leon wrote:The players list - which is not in sign up or alphabetical order, by the way.

Moggy wrote:I randomised the sign up thread list (and missed a couple of people off and edited them back in ), sorted them alphabetically, assigned roles based on a random number generator (using their numbers on an Excel spreadsheet) and then used the RAND() function to further randomise them on the spreadsheet before posting the list in the game thread.

It's just luck. The same luck that probably turned the scientist.

I would do this myself but I am 'technically' doing work in the lab atm.

Preezy wrote:I don't really think is in the spirit of the game to be honest. As Rhubarb has said, would be a cheap win to profit from a lapse by Moggy. I'd rather win through genuine story-driven detective work, but that's just the Batman in me.

As would we all I think, but this is now evidence we have. Standard run for these games is that any piece of evidence that pops up must be investigated right through.

I hope Im wrong about my selected group.

Karl wrote:Drumstick: The idea is that Moggy may not have actually randomised it. He is new to running the game and might have simply forgotten.

Oh okay, somehow I didn't pick up on that from the other posts.

When I ran my game (IIRC) I randomised the role list but not the sign up list.

Rhubarb wrote:

Karl wrote:Hold up, though. Do we want to focus our attention inside a block of high friendly density, even if we think one is probably infected, or away from that block?

If these names conform to some proper ordering then I think at least trying the ends is a solid move.

If we kill one and it turns out they have a special role, presumably that would almost confirm the theory that the list hasn't be re-ordered properly and the Alpha might be in there somewhere?

I think that someone on the list in black needs to die tonight.

I don't think Moggy would be daft enough to intentionally group every special role together in the list as that'd make the game far too easy for the infected 'team'.

If I were running an AYA game I'd never stick wolves/vampires/cylons/bluehats at either end of the player list as there's no fun in just working your way through a list without any real evidence.

This is pretty fast moving so I'm going to continually quote this until someone does it for me.

Karl wrote:Could someone please work out how many 'naturally immune' players there were to begin with in the game? It should be possible by looking at the post where Moggy said he removed half, and then said how many more humans there are now.

I can then work out what the chances of there being a run of five of those names in a random list are, and we can make a solid decision about whether we believe it is a coincidence or not.

Don't forget we are playing a game with what appears to be a lot of special roles. So if that's the case it's entirely possible to get a big block like that.

At least that's what I am hoping

Karl wrote:This is pretty fast moving so I'm going to continually quote this until someone does it for me.

Karl wrote:Could someone please work out how many 'naturally immune' players there were to begin with in the game? It should be possible by looking at the post where Moggy said he removed half, and then said how many more humans there are now.

I can then work out what the chances of there being a run of five of those names in a random list are, and we can make a solid decision about whether we believe it is a coincidence or not.

6.

Karl wrote:This is pretty fast moving so I'm going to continually quote this until someone does it for me.

Karl wrote:Could someone please work out how many 'naturally immune' players there were to begin with in the game? It should be possible by looking at the post where Moggy said he removed half, and then said how many more humans there are now.

I can then work out what the chances of there being a run of five of those names in a random list are, and we can make a solid decision about whether we believe it is a coincidence or not.

8 I think originally, it went down by 3 +FatDaz, 4 people in total (and it was a 50% reduction)

BID0 wrote:

Karl wrote:This is pretty fast moving so I'm going to continually quote this until someone does it for me.

Karl wrote:Could someone please work out how many 'naturally immune' players there were to begin with in the game? It should be possible by looking at the post where Moggy said he removed half, and then said how many more humans there are now.

I can then work out what the chances of there being a run of five of those names in a random list are, and we can make a solid decision about whether we believe it is a coincidence or not.

8 I think originally, it went down by 3 +FatDaz, 4 people in total (and it was a 50% reduction)

To the best of my knowledge, Fatdaz wasn't immune. the 50% reduction was matched by a slight gaff from Moggy which confirmed there were still 3 immune players.

I'm not sure about this list, I'm thinking things may just be bunched together like that just out of chance. I'm basing this on Cheeky Devlin's infected love in last night, which makes me truly believe he has some sort of role, who is just below me in the list, and I know for certain (but this is just my word) that I'm a regular human, and both of us way above that snapshot.

Karl wrote:This is pretty fast moving so I'm going to continually quote this until someone does it for me.

Karl wrote:Could someone please work out how many 'naturally immune' players there were to begin with in the game? It should be possible by looking at the post where Moggy said he removed half, and then said how many more humans there are now.

I can then work out what the chances of there being a run of five of those names in a random list are, and we can make a solid decision about whether we believe it is a coincidence or not.

I think a similar thing happened in the Vampire game where everyone used assigned names, nearly every vamp was next to another in the randomised player list.

Id counter argue that Im 99% sure Devlin has no special ability.

That's not a growth wrote:I'm not sure about this list, I'm thinking things may just be bunched together like that just out of chance. I'm basing this on Cheeky Devlin's infected love in last night, which makes me truly believe he has some sort of role, who is just below me in the list, and I know for certain (but this is just my word) that I'm a regular human, and both of us way above that snapshot.

I don't think Cheeky has a role. I think I said this before, but perhaps he just wants to play another perfectly viable win condition for any player in the game and have some fun with it. When you have secret PM circles going on behind the scenes in a game like this it often leaves many people left out with nothing to do but wait and hear what the "important players"" have to say to get a chance of being involved. He might just be having fun, because y'know the purpose of these games is to have fun.

I think StayDead is... right

Falsey wrote:I think StayDead is... right

We truly are lost.

And if you guys think he hasn't a role I'll go with it, but he put a Hell of a lot of effort into it. Saying that, so did Dan. Ok then.