'Arrrrr You A Werewolf?' - Wolves Attack - 11pm

Interesting.

Good job Detective Kanbei. Some interesting reading and some of those names also have shown some odd behavior during this game. It will be interesting to see what tonight brings.

It's worthy of note that Gorrable, Henke and Tiarny :wub:

were all happy to vote Skippy when Shafto was one of his lynchees.

Not sure what to think about Kanbei's theory. It's interesting and the list of seven contains people I'd suspect as being a wolf. But the fact I was on the longer list (and am not a wolf) puts a level of doubt in my head about the whole theory. Still, that list of seven looks like a good list to work on.

Kanbei wrote:In the latest series of "Kanbei analyses the Captain results" I look at the list I have made already and cross-reference it with the other Captain candidates. Basically what I am checking is whether any of the list have voted against each other. Of course, it is entirely possible that the wolves have split their vote on candidates to cover their tracks (forgive the pun) but I'll put the information out there anyway.

The results are actually quite surprising, I'll go through them vote by vote (I will again leave out Smurphy's election yesterday)

PsychicSykes Vote
PsychicSykes - Jailing Ecno and Fatal Exception (16)
Cuttooth, BID0, Deadpool, Drumstick, DangChris, Oblomov Boblomov, Frank, Dalagonash, StayDead, Shafto, Gorrable, Karlprof, Red, bigcheez2k3, pyxl-8, Caliban

Memento Mori - Jailing Fatal Exception and Aaron/Herbi (8)
Drawlight, The Master, mcjihge2, PCCD, Skippy, á, Wiggles, HM

From my list, Nood and mcjihge have voted against the list majority (but only 3-2). It'll be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Skippy vote
Skippy - Herbi and Shafto (15)
Henke, Deadpool, Zenigame, Gorrable, BID0, Memento Mori, Wiggles, Drawlight, Drummy, Denster, TAP, Staydead, Nova, The Master, Pedz

Cuttooth - Herbi and Randomly Drawn Player (6)
Irene, G-rat, Hank, Aaron, mcjihge2, á

JK - Two Randomly Drawn Players (1)
Benj

Shafto - Mori and Aaron (2)
PCCD, Red Devil

Again, mcjihge votes against the majority. Red Devil also votes against the majority.

Oblomov vote
Oblomov Boblomov Frank and Ario (10)
Dark Dragon 64, Mori, PsychicSykes, mcjihge2, The Master, Gorrable, RD, PCCD, Deadpool, Ecno

á StayDead and One by consensus (provisionally Drumstick) (7)
Melatonin, Frank, bigcheez2k3, Skippy, Denster, Zenigame, pyxl-8

This time it's Melatonin and Zenigame who vote against the majority.

Argonaut vote
Argonaut - Melatonin and Roonmastor (18)
Shafto, mcjihge2, G-Rat, Gorrable, Henke, PsychicSykes, Mind Crime, Cuttooth, bork, Luke_25, á, Poncho, HM, Wiggles, Kanbei, Mori, Satriales, Drumstick

Roonmastor - G-Rat and Argonaut, Dig at D2 (12)
Deadpool, Dalagonash, Dark Dragon 64, pyxl-8, Denster, Drawlight, Benj, bigcheez2k3, Ecno, Karlprof, melatonin, BID0

Melatonin the only one to vote against the majority.

PCCD vote
PCCD - Argonaut and Psychicsykes Dig at B2 (9)
Henke, mcjihge2, melatonin, RD, JK, Rog, TAP, á, PsychicSykes

Kanbei - Tiarny and Parksey (3)
PsychicSykes, BID0, Red

Nobody votes against the majority this time.

Pyxl-8 vote
pyxl-8 - Smurphy & Poncho - dig at D2 (10)
Luke_25, satriales, Shafto, Henke, Zenigame, TAP, HM, Hyperion, The Master, melatonin

Poncho - TAP & Zenigame -dig at D2 (4)
AJ Styles, Cuttooth, á, mcjihge2

JK - Poncho & Call And Answer (2)
Karlprof, BID0

For the third time mcjihge votes against the majority. As does Cutty.

Now you are asking what does this prove? Well I'm more concentrated on the names NOT on the list. Three of the top four on my list (Henke, Gorrable and Shafto) have never voted against the captain who won. Therefore, they have never voted against each other. Is this yet another coincidence?

Now it's time to go into uncharted territory for a bit. From now on this is complete theory and not fact. Say, the wolves have always voted with each other and never against each other (it's possible, but a long shot). So lets start removing the names from the list, just to see who we end up with.

Mcjihge, Cutty, Zenigame, Nood and Red Devil are removed. This leaves us with

Henke
Gorrable
Shafto
Luke_25
Satriales
TAP
HM

These are the 7 players left in the game who have always at least voted WITH each other and never AGAINST each other. Oh...how many wolves are left? That's right. 7.

Remember that last bit is all theory, but is definitely suspicious in my eyes.

Very sound theory Kanbei - good work.

Except i'm human. Remember all the times I flipped my gooseberry fool? Remember when I defended StayDead and Argonoauts madness against all sense? I'm an irrational, hopeless human to the core.

The flaw in your logic is you're suggesting these were the only votes we made. However, we also voted in lynchees after the Captain votes too. If you were to analyse ALL that data (which, unfortunately may be impossible given the hidden nature of the true votes via PM), then you might find more conclusive results.

If I get lynched because of this, at least it'll be the result of some damn good analysis!

I'm totally human though.

The Master wrote:It's worthy of note that Gorrable, Henke and Tiarny were all happy to vote Skippy when Shafto was one of his lynchees.

True. It is only a theory though, I'd be utterly stunned if all those 7 turn out to be wolves. It'd just be ridiculous :lol:

but again, I'd be equally stunned if none of them are wolves.

SMURPHY vs PONCHO

One must stay, one must go!

You have until 9pm to vote. Results after 10.15pm.

Kanbei wrote:Henke
Gorrable
Shafto
Luke_25
Satriales
TAP
HM

That is pretty excellent work. Given that I know I am not a wolf, it's even more damning that everyone there who voted today, voted against me and Poncho. There is a chance that for whatever reason there was only two wolf kills on that night, and Poncho the wolf is just taking credit for it, but I doubt it. Just remember how they voted today when we're dead.

To be honest, I would almost put money on that being the exact list of wolves. The only other suspects I can think of are Melly and Wiggles for his campaign against me today.

It is a shame that me and Poncho have been put in today. I know for a fact I'm not a wolf obviously, but neither do I think Poncho is one. But alas, one of us must die.

If or when I die, and you see I was innocent all along, it would do me a great honour if you would lynch Henke.

Also, there is a potential ace up my sleeve tonight, but I don't think it's going to happen before I'm killed.

You'll know when it does happen, however.

Last edited by SuperChris on Wed Nov 10, 2010 7:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Drumstick wrote:
DangChris xD wrote:+1 mcjihge2

Your justification being?

I'm not sure about tap i think if i remember when i was a wolf 2 games ago we killed him early he's a good player.. he ran the last ayaw and the wolves killed dml last game.
Just a guess but i thought they would have killed him by now. =)

I think you're definitely onto something Kanbei - those people just shot up in my suspicion list.

Bit torn about tonight's vote:

Smurphy has a high chance of being the leak. As someone else pointed out, he's no longer 100% trustworthy and has no more bullets (if he ever had any to begin with).

Poncho - deep personal suspicion about this guy from not long into the game. Didn't like what I deemed as him defaming my character and personality, rather than responding to my arguments.

The bit I find most confusing about Poncho is how he got into a position of "practically a confirmed human"? When did this happen?

I'm voting Poncho, not that I think he's a wolf (don't think either of them are) but because Poncho says he's human and we're sure smurphy is a vigilante so theres a very small chance that Poncho is the alpha. Not likely though. Sorry

Last edited by Count Nood on Wed Nov 10, 2010 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

never mind :shifty:

Last edited by HM on Wed Nov 10, 2010 7:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

smurphy wrote:Also, there is a potential ace up my sleeve tonight, but I don't think it's going to happen before I'm killed. You'll know when it does happen, however.

Christ, screams of wolf begging not to be lynched.

Either way, smurphy should be lynched. Then we can clear up the mess from last night. That what we keep failing to do, every night we let the previous mess not get cleaned up. Look at the whole Kanbei/TAP/Parksey mess, all 3 still alive. And so what if he's a human? He can't start a network of people, there are no seers left. And eventually the wolves will kill him. We were foolish to trust him yesterday based on him "coming clean" with no definite proof. Remember he is NOT a confirmed vigilante. Also we just happen to lose 3 special players all in one go, on the day that smurphy's supporter were urging all special roles to get in contact with smurphy.

Also i'll be the first to admit that the evidence kanbei put forward doesn't exactly look good for me. Meh, we've pretty much lost anyways so I don't care if I'm lynched, the wolves have got totally control of this game atm. I'm human, I know i am. Got no evidence for it, just my word.

Yaaaaarrrrrr

smurphy wrote:Also, there is a potential ace up my sleeve tonight, but I don't think it's going to happen before I'm killed. You'll know when it does happen, however.

What is this ace? Tell us now.

Voting poncho but they are probably both human knowing our luck so far. :fp:

I think I've only voted in two or three of the elections so far, so while I may have never voted against those people, I've definitely not voted with them on every occasion. Plus, I only voted Pyxl because I wasn't around to change my mind. Basically, I'm not a wolf, so I'm inclined to think that the list means nothing (I would say that).

Anyway, sorry Smurphy, but I'm voting you tonight, by this point we have nothing to lose and it would be too hard to take if you turned out to be a wolf in the end.

Seems a bit desperate by Smurphy who's a vigilante with no bullets left. :lol:

HM wrote:
Also, there is a potential ace up my sleeve tonight, but I don't think it's going to happen before I'm killed. You'll know when it does happen, however.

I don't need to be alive so it doesn't really matter.

Remember he is NOT a confirmed vigilante.

I would like everyone who follows this view to sit and type up the series of events that led to where we are now, with me being a wolf. It makes literally no sense. No just casual ignoring of the point so you can continue to accuse me. I wish I was a wolf, because it would be pretty bad ass to have pulled it off.

Also, for the record when I'm dead, I knew Skippy was a Vigi, because he contacted me. I had no contact or inkling about Jebus or Ecno.

Voted Poncho tonight.

I figured, Smurphy is kinda strawberry floated either way. If he doesn't get lynched, the wolves will take him. And if the wolves DON'T take him, he's prime suspect number one for tomorrow's lynch.

I suspect both of them, so voting Poncho makes sense as both will bite it soon enough.

'Arrrrr You A Werewolf?' - Wolves Attack - 11pm

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