[Red Tribe chat] TRIBE VS TRIBE

[Sprouty]

It's going to be chaotic when the results are revealed, especially for those who do not make a list, or even more so, those who make a list with 8 wrong guesses! Essentially 9 failed interrogations added to public view.

Getting 8 right would definitely earn you huge kudos! I am guessing that the secret revealed for doing so will be whether or not wolves are in play.

[Sprouty]

When are we due our next kill - Sunday?

I'll update the streak checker tonight.

[Nun]

In my mind there are a few clusters like Drumstick/Hyperion/Frank who I feel are often pushing the same narratives but I can't place what tribe they're in till one of them flips. They might be a good target for a shot on Sunday though if we can keep up the posting streak prior to declaring our lists. I'm inclined to say that they're PV though, just because the other tribes seem quite disorganised and I feel Drummy and Parksey would crack the whip on not posting during silence.

The people who are confirmed in my mind are:
Vermillion is also confirmed as TYEM as he's interrogated as not vig, he's not with us and he posted twice in silence which is more than us so can't be pv.
Curls is TYEM by association with Vermi.
Parksey is PV as he struck a deal with sprout to go after Vermi who's TYEM and Parksey is also not vigi.

Then my shortlist is probably the below, just need to pick 2 more to put up...

Drumstick - Pro-Village
DML - Pro-Village
Site23 - Pro-Village
Parksey - Pro-Village
Frank - Pro-Village
Hyperion - Pro-Village
Vermillion - TYEM (Not Vig, not PV)
Curls - TYEM
Pedz - Vigilantes, posted during silence so not PV, early vote on curls as TYEM
Aayl1- TYEM
SuperChris - Red Tribe
Sprouty - Red Tribe
Tsunade - TYEM (Not PV)
Preezy - TYEM
Oblomov Boblomov - TYEM
DarkRula - TYEM
Ironhide- Vigilantes (Not PV - posted after mori in silence, not TYEM - early vote on Curls as TYEM)
OR - not pv - vigilantes?
Jenuall - not Vigilantes -PV?

[Sprouty]

Voting update!

[Nun]

Voting update!

So i'm taking from this that OR likely isn't pro-village and Jenuall isn't vigilantes which is useful to know!

[Nun]

I think this is my current best guess at the playerlist. I'm fairly confident on almost all of the TYEM team but the pv/vigilante guys could be more interchangeable.

Drumstick - Pro-Village
DML - Pro-Village
Site23 - Pro-Village
Parksey - Pro-Village
Frank - Pro-Village
Hyperion - Pro-Village
Jenuall - not Vigilantes -PV?
Vermillion - TYEM (Not Vig, not PV)
Curls - TYEM
Aayl1- TYEM
Tsunade - TYEM (Not PV)
Preezy - TYEM
Oblomov Boblomov - TYEM
DarkRula - TYEM
Ironhide- Vigilantes (Not PV - posted after mori in silence, not TYEM - early vote on Curls as TYEM)
OR - not pv - vigilantes?
Pedz - Vigilantes, posted during silence so not PV, early vote on curls as TYEM
rocsteady, sawyerpip, roonmaster, qikz - vigilantes by process of elimintation.

For TYEM we have:
Vermillion/Curls confirmed.
Aayl - Cora's suspicion with the naming and also being a poster during silence.
Tsunade - Confirmed not pv. Voting record is 5 votes cast against vigilante which would be impressive if that's her own allignment.
Preezy and Oblomov - Preezy's voting record matches TYEM and they were both named by Mori as TYEM along with Tsunade which could explain Mori's death. Mori dying would also coincide with the first day that this team of 7 have posted for 3 days in a row so they would likely be keen to use their kill and several team members were quick to comment after the death which is classic for them watching it coming.
DarkRula - this one is probably the longest shot but I believe voting for himself might have been to spread the non-sprouty votes further to try and keep Curls off the ballot. He did vote for Curls as TYEM but at a point where TYEM was very behind so he perhaps didn't expect the late swing. He was also a poster during silence.

[Sprouty]

OK, so here is the list of nominations made (i.e. the first round of voting each day).

I've assumed that Tsunade, Curls and Vermillion are TYEM. I would have preferred not to, but there wasn't enough data to analyse without that assumption.

The name to the far left is the nominee.


Using this and the voting records, I have just finished the prediction chart below.

The methodology I have used here is that I have assumed that a player would not vote for their own Tribe on tight votes. For example, we know that Clarkman was Pro Village, so on the 22nd where it was a tight interrogation vote between TYEM and Pro-Village, those who voted Pro-Village are unlikely to be in that tribe. Likewise for nominations, where the nominations were tight, I've assumed that anyone voting for somebody of a known tribe would not do so if they were in the same tribe. On less tight votes, or where only one player was up for nomination, I have not made any assumptions from the voting patterns. One flaw in my method is that I havent looked at the position of the vote when any individual vote was made, so ther me may be cases where a dummy vote appeared safe when it was made.



Looks like Nun has done some great work whilst I've been looking at this, so I'm going to add in notes showing whether we agree or disagree on players.

I think this is my current best guess at the playerlist. I'm fairly confident on almost all of the TYEM team but the pv/vigilante guys could be more interchangeable.

Drumstick - Pro-Village Disagree
DML - Pro-Village Undecided
Site23 - Pro-Village Undecided
Parksey - Pro-Village Agree
Frank - Pro-Village Undecided
Hyperion - Pro-Village Undecided
Jenuall - not Vigilantes -PV? Agree
Vermillion - TYEM (Not Vig, not PV) Agree
Curls - TYEM Agree
Aayl1- TYEM Undecided
Tsunade - TYEM (Not PV) Agree
Preezy - TYEM Undecided
Oblomov Boblomov - TYEM Undecided
DarkRula - TYEM Disagree
Ironhide- Vigilantes (Not PV - posted after mori in silence, not TYEM - early vote on Curls as TYEM) Agree
OR - not pv - vigilantes? Undecided
Pedz - Vigilantes, posted during silence so not PV, early vote on curls as TYEM Undecided
rocsteady Undecided, sawyerpip Undecided, roonmaster Agree, qikz - vigilantes by process of elimintation. Undecided.

For TYEM we have:
Vermillion Aagree/Curls Agree Confirmed.
Aayl Disagree- Cora's suspicion with the naming and also being a poster during silence.
Tsunade Agree- Confirmed not pv. Voting record is 5 votes cast against vigilante which would be impressive if that's her own allignment.
Preezy Undecided and Oblomov Undecided- Preezy's voting record matches TYEM and they were both named by Mori as TYEM along with Tsunade which could explain Mori's death. Mori dying would also coincide with the first day that this team of 7 have posted for 3 days in a row so they would likely be keen to use their kill and several team members were quick to comment after the death which is classic for them watching it coming.
DarkRula Disagree- this one is probably the longest shot but I believe voting for himself might have been to spread the non-sprouty votes further to try and keep Curls off the ballot. He did vote for Curls as TYEM but at a point where TYEM was very behind so he perhaps didn't expect the late swing. He was also a poster during silence.

At first look, this appears quite mixed and therefore it might be disheartening, but the truth is we will both have made mistakes (I have labelled some players as not TYEM despite the block voting theory and need to review these when I have time). I think it's awesome that we've both put together lists at the same time which we can compare. Even better than that, we have ten players which we've both analysed at the same time and separately come up with the exact same conclusion!

You've looked at things which I have not, so it will take some time to digest it all, but it's time for bed now so that will have to wait for now. The majority of cases where we don't agree I've marked as undecided, which means that I haven't drilled down enough to agree, but certainly I haven't assumed that your conclusion is wrong. In fact, in most of these cases, you've picked one of the two Tribes I have left as a possibility and I would definitely go with what you've said on those cases if we were trying to win a vote against those players. I also really want to look at the ones which we disagree on too, and run your assumptions through my model (especially the ones you are most confident about), in order to see if that reveals anything else.

That feels like we've made some real progress!

[Nun]

Solid analysis! I do think a lot of the cases where we agree are based on your stats so it's good that we've both come to the same conclusions from it.

I do have some further notes by player as to why I've put them where I have (some of it is in the weekend list thread) but I assumed that nobody else would be up at 11pm on a Friday analysing so it could wait till this morning!

I think a further metric to look at, which I have sort of thought about but not really checked is what powers each tribe has gained.
- In my mind everyone in Pro-Village must have posted in the first 3 days as Clarkman shot himself on Day4 to deny points.
- Likewise the shot on Mori feels like it was by a tribe who had posted on a 3 day streak recently and I feel it's likely that they felt called out by his list. TYEM fits this criteria as Mori made 3 correct guesses on their identity and so I'd like to check when they have managed a 3 day streak.
- I have also made an assumption that Vigilantes have given up posting everyday despite trying early on in the game to do so because of Rocsteady being inactive. For example Sawyerpip was making an active effort to post once per day at very quiet times in thread right up until the end of the 1st weekend. But has since stopped bothering, I am wondering if he has given up on making these posts because Rocsteady has been inactive. Some of the players I highlighted as Vigilante are therefore people who showed an interest in your Rocsteady line of interrogation (there weren't many though).

[Sprouty]

Never assume that I am not awake at 11pm looking at stats when one of these games is being played. At least if I die this weekend I can catch up on my sleep!

I definitely want to look through your thoughts in detail. I'd quite like to take a shot at Vigilantes in this weekend event and that requires more work from my side, but if I can figure out 4 or 5 that will hopefully help shine some light on the Vigilantes going forward.

I dont know if you've heard of this, but this quote refers to how to effectively guess the number of sweets in a jar, simply by taking an average of all other guesses. I believe this applies to the guesses people make this week.

The best way is to use a trick known as the wisdom of the crowd!

Gather a group of people. The more the better. Ask them to individually guess the number of items in the jar.

You will be surprised to find that the average answer of all the people will be very close to the actual number of items in the jar.This is because the number of people overestimating the number of items will be balanced by the number of people underestimating it and the final average will be very close to the correct number.

However this works better when the number of people you ask is large.

Use the ‘Wisdom of the Crowd’ to your advantage!

I would assume that it is likely that we'll see a decent number of lists posted this week and that by tracking how the crowd label players will be an effective way of using this tactic.

[Nun]

I think I'm closing in on:

Parksey - Pro-Village
Sprouty - Red Tribe
SuperChris - Red Tribe
Curls - TYEM
Vermilion - TYEM
Ironhide - Vigilantes

With 2 of the following:
ORKN - Vigilantes/Jenuall - Pro-Village, if I'm trusting stats
Pedz - Vigilantes/Site23 - Pro-Village, if I'm trusting the vibes

[Sprouty]

Please can we all PM Herdanons voting to kill Curls this weekend.

Parkseys tribe are offering to vote to kill Vermi and whilst we can't trust this entirely, it is our best shot at survival.

Please dont forget! If I die then fine, but if I die because we forget to PM Dan our votes that would be horrid!

[mic]

Done!

[Sprouty]

I have added Thursday and Friday to the list. Looks like we're currently a couple of posts short today to gain a kill.

[Sprouty]

And... we have a kill available.

[Sprouty]

I took my guess at Vigilantes, using a combination of my own analysis and that made by Nun. I doubt it will be a perfect 8, but it would be a nice parting gift should I die today if it were!

I suspect I will be given the chop in the vote. I've been too vocal and nominating players too often has pretty much revealed my allegiance. Add to that, I've been on nearly every list posted so far for the weekend event, with the majority guessing Red Tribe, so that may actually be a blessing. The 'it's boring to interrogate twice' argument wont hold forever!

If I survive, we may need to shoot me as soon as it looks like I'm going to be interogated to prevent points fallout based on the fact a lot of people have guessed me as Red Tribe for the weekend vote. If I die, I would give serious consideration to starting to use protection on yourselves. Player numbers is going to start to be an issue and whilst it isn't the most exciting way to play, keeping as many of you alive is going to be critical to success.

Good luck to you all. It's been good fun playing alongside you and I will be cheering you on alongside Mommy and Mori from the sidelines.

[Herdanos]

A MEMBER OF YOUR TRIBE HAS BEEN ELIMINATED

Sprouty has been eliminated from the game.
Please do not talk to Sprouty about the game, for the remainder of the game.
This applies to any and all channels of communication (WhatsApp, Discord etc).
If they are a member of any chat groups or similar please can you now remove them.

[Cuttooth]

Good night sweet prince.

[Nun]

Hey all, don't forget to make a post today for the streak or posts list if you haven't already!

[Nun]

Days crossed out indicate that the streak for these days has been redeemed for a power.

Monday 19th September - Achieved
Tuesday 20th September - Achieved
Wednesday 21st September - Achieved
Thursday 22nd September - Achieved
Friday 23rd September - Achieved
Saturday 24th September - Broken
Sunday 25th September - Achieved
Monday 26th September - Achieved
Tuesday 27th September - Achieved
Wednesday 28th September - SILENCE!
Thursday 29th September - Achieved
Friday 30th September - Achieved
Saturday 1st October - Achieved
Sunday 2nd October - Achieved

[RetroCora]

This is a summary of how the day has gone for us all - we've managed to deduce a couple of things from the list event. The first is that Pedz posted an entirely incorrect list, but the second is that through process of elimination, we've outed QIKZ as the winner of the event for the vigilantes. So what this has done is give us a bit of information through his list. We are now more or less 100% sure of the identities of the following players:

Pro-Village(4/4):

Drumstick
Oblomov Boblomov
Parksey
Frank

Tribe Yer Eyes Mate(5/5):

DarkRula
Pedz
Preezy
Tsunade
Aayl

Vigilantes(4/4):

Qikz
DML
Rocsteady
Sawyerpip

Red Tribe(4/4):

Cuttooth
Cora
Mic
Super Chris

There is a downside. Nobody has picked up on it in thread yet, but Pedz' list has zero correct players on it, so Cuttooth is confirmed not to be on Pro-Village and I am confirmed not vigilante. Cuttooth didn't post a list and is confirmed not to be in Tribe Yer Eyes Mate as well, and my tribal identity will be revealed soon enough through the backdoor channels we used to confirm Drumstick's tribe. Chris' identity will also be revealed publicly as soon as Qikz is confirmed as the winner of the event.

And with the votes from tonight, we've confirmed all of the tribes and all of the players. Good work everyone.