Brexit Thread 2

[Moggy]

What I would have liked to have seen was the government just come out two years ago and say that when we leave the EU we will drop down to EFTA membership with EEA access for a period of time whilst we look to negotiate a new arrangement. Would that not have solved all the short term problems.

You may call that a 'short term' problem but it would be a catastrophic short term problem that would damage the UK economy in the long term.

I'm aware the short time future would be catastrophic which is why I said surely dropping down to EFTA and EEA would surely solve those economic issues. All the current arrangements would stay the same. The biggest problem I can see if having to listening to the inbreds complaining about how the will of the people have been ignored and shouting 'treason' etc.

Obviously that's never going to happen anyway.

Even EEA/EFTA membership is projected to cause a 1.4% drop in GDP. That’s roughly similar to the fall in GDP following the 2008 crash.

I don’t understand why it would cause a drop as large as that. Economic relationship wise we will be in the same situation as now.

We would still be in the single market, but we would lose the trade agreements that the EU has with other states around the world.

We could build up our own trade agreements with other nations, but there’s no guarantee we’d get as good a deal as we currently have. And we’d almost certainly not, we are a much smaller market than the EU and so have less power.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 010_EN.pdf

It also doesn’t cover the Customs Union, which means the Irish border issue would not be solved.

https://www.politico.eu/article/soft-br ... -solution/

Would there also be the issue of financial passporting? This could heavily affect the financial sector which is currently a big chunk of GDP.

I think EEA/EFTA includes financial passporting but that might be an optional part of it. We'd obviously be mad not to go with financial passporting if we were to join EEA/EFTA, but we seem quite mad anyway so who knows.

Norway and Sweden seem to cope fine with their border. It works. They are always attempting to implement monitoring measures but they have even more shared roads and bridges than between N Ireland and Rep Ireland. The vast majority of them have no checks whatsoever going both ways. People and traffic travel both ways without issue. It would be no different for us between the UK and Ireland if we had the same membership as Norway. Anyway as I said it’s become a pointless topic as their seems to be no movement or political will towards this as our politicians want to be able to set our own rules and regulations. Norway just accepts the EUs regulations and moves on.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

Norway and Sweden are both part of Schengen.

Norway and Sweden don't have the Good Friday Agreement.

Norway and Sweden had almost 230k checks on vehicles in 2016 ( https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ay-sweden/ ).

Still no reason it wouldn’t work here.

Except for all the reasons why it wouldn’t.

[DML]

What I would have liked to have seen was the government just come out two years ago and say that when we leave the EU we will drop down to EFTA membership with EEA access for a period of time whilst we look to negotiate a new arrangement. Would that not have solved all the short term problems.

You may call that a 'short term' problem but it would be a catastrophic short term problem that would damage the UK economy in the long term.

I'm aware the short time future would be catastrophic which is why I said surely dropping down to EFTA and EEA would surely solve those economic issues. All the current arrangements would stay the same. The biggest problem I can see if having to listening to the inbreds complaining about how the will of the people have been ignored and shouting 'treason' etc.

Obviously that's never going to happen anyway.

Even EEA/EFTA membership is projected to cause a 1.4% drop in GDP. That’s roughly similar to the fall in GDP following the 2008 crash.

I don’t understand why it would cause a drop as large as that. Economic relationship wise we will be in the same situation as now.

We would still be in the single market, but we would lose the trade agreements that the EU has with other states around the world.

We could build up our own trade agreements with other nations, but there’s no guarantee we’d get as good a deal as we currently have. And we’d almost certainly not, we are a much smaller market than the EU and so have less power.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 010_EN.pdf

It also doesn’t cover the Customs Union, which means the Irish border issue would not be solved.

https://www.politico.eu/article/soft-br ... -solution/

Would there also be the issue of financial passporting? This could heavily affect the financial sector which is currently a big chunk of GDP.

I think EEA/EFTA includes financial passporting but that might be an optional part of it. We'd obviously be mad not to go with financial passporting if we were to join EEA/EFTA, but we seem quite mad anyway so who knows.

Norway and Sweden seem to cope fine with their border. It works. They are always attempting to implement monitoring measures but they have even more shared roads and bridges than between N Ireland and Rep Ireland. The vast majority of them have no checks whatsoever going both ways. People and traffic travel both ways without issue. It would be no different for us between the UK and Ireland if we had the same membership as Norway. Anyway as I said it’s become a pointless topic as their seems to be no movement or political will towards this as our politicians want to be able to set our own rules and regulations. Norway just accepts the EUs regulations and moves on.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

Norway and Sweden are both part of Schengen.

Norway and Sweden don't have the Good Friday Agreement.

Norway and Sweden had almost 230k checks on vehicles in 2016 ( https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ay-sweden/ ).

Still no reason it wouldn’t work here.

....except for the small fact that they are the reasons it wouldn't work here.

I honestly have no idea how anyone can support any version of Brexit at this point - there is so, so, so much evidence at this point its ridiculous.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

What I would have liked to have seen was the government just come out two years ago and say that when we leave the EU we will drop down to EFTA membership with EEA access for a period of time whilst we look to negotiate a new arrangement. Would that not have solved all the short term problems.

You may call that a 'short term' problem but it would be a catastrophic short term problem that would damage the UK economy in the long term.

I'm aware the short time future would be catastrophic which is why I said surely dropping down to EFTA and EEA would surely solve those economic issues. All the current arrangements would stay the same. The biggest problem I can see if having to listening to the inbreds complaining about how the will of the people have been ignored and shouting 'treason' etc.

Obviously that's never going to happen anyway.

Even EEA/EFTA membership is projected to cause a 1.4% drop in GDP. That’s roughly similar to the fall in GDP following the 2008 crash.

I don’t understand why it would cause a drop as large as that. Economic relationship wise we will be in the same situation as now.

We would still be in the single market, but we would lose the trade agreements that the EU has with other states around the world.

We could build up our own trade agreements with other nations, but there’s no guarantee we’d get as good a deal as we currently have. And we’d almost certainly not, we are a much smaller market than the EU and so have less power.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 010_EN.pdf

It also doesn’t cover the Customs Union, which means the Irish border issue would not be solved.

https://www.politico.eu/article/soft-br ... -solution/

Would there also be the issue of financial passporting? This could heavily affect the financial sector which is currently a big chunk of GDP.

I think EEA/EFTA includes financial passporting but that might be an optional part of it. We'd obviously be mad not to go with financial passporting if we were to join EEA/EFTA, but we seem quite mad anyway so who knows.

Norway and Sweden seem to cope fine with their border. It works. They are always attempting to implement monitoring measures but they have even more shared roads and bridges than between N Ireland and Rep Ireland. The vast majority of them have no checks whatsoever going both ways. People and traffic travel both ways without issue. It would be no different for us between the UK and Ireland if we had the same membership as Norway. Anyway as I said it’s become a pointless topic as their seems to be no movement or political will towards this as our politicians want to be able to set our own rules and regulations. Norway just accepts the EUs regulations and moves on.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

Norway and Sweden are both part of Schengen.

Norway and Sweden don't have the Good Friday Agreement.

Norway and Sweden had almost 230k checks on vehicles in 2016 ( https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ay-sweden/ ).

Still no reason it wouldn’t work here.

Except for all the reasons why it wouldn’t.

I disagree. Us and Ireland are not in schengen presently anyway. The good Friday agreement doesn’t stop an EEA and EFTA arrangement and as I’ve said already Norway and Sweden has a far busier border than Ireland and n Ireland. With more roads and vehicle crossings. Most roads are unchecked with completely free movement. The vehicle checks are mostly random and as part of operations just like when the police set up checks in the uk and pull up vehicles to test for alcohol, vehicle emissions.

As I say it’s not going to happen anyway.

The ideal situation for me is staying the EU but this is the next step below.

[Moggy]

What I would have liked to have seen was the government just come out two years ago and say that when we leave the EU we will drop down to EFTA membership with EEA access for a period of time whilst we look to negotiate a new arrangement. Would that not have solved all the short term problems.

You may call that a 'short term' problem but it would be a catastrophic short term problem that would damage the UK economy in the long term.

I'm aware the short time future would be catastrophic which is why I said surely dropping down to EFTA and EEA would surely solve those economic issues. All the current arrangements would stay the same. The biggest problem I can see if having to listening to the inbreds complaining about how the will of the people have been ignored and shouting 'treason' etc.

Obviously that's never going to happen anyway.

Even EEA/EFTA membership is projected to cause a 1.4% drop in GDP. That’s roughly similar to the fall in GDP following the 2008 crash.

I don’t understand why it would cause a drop as large as that. Economic relationship wise we will be in the same situation as now.

We would still be in the single market, but we would lose the trade agreements that the EU has with other states around the world.

We could build up our own trade agreements with other nations, but there’s no guarantee we’d get as good a deal as we currently have. And we’d almost certainly not, we are a much smaller market than the EU and so have less power.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 010_EN.pdf

It also doesn’t cover the Customs Union, which means the Irish border issue would not be solved.

https://www.politico.eu/article/soft-br ... -solution/

Would there also be the issue of financial passporting? This could heavily affect the financial sector which is currently a big chunk of GDP.

I think EEA/EFTA includes financial passporting but that might be an optional part of it. We'd obviously be mad not to go with financial passporting if we were to join EEA/EFTA, but we seem quite mad anyway so who knows.

Norway and Sweden seem to cope fine with their border. It works. They are always attempting to implement monitoring measures but they have even more shared roads and bridges than between N Ireland and Rep Ireland. The vast majority of them have no checks whatsoever going both ways. People and traffic travel both ways without issue. It would be no different for us between the UK and Ireland if we had the same membership as Norway. Anyway as I said it’s become a pointless topic as their seems to be no movement or political will towards this as our politicians want to be able to set our own rules and regulations. Norway just accepts the EUs regulations and moves on.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

Norway and Sweden are both part of Schengen.

Norway and Sweden don't have the Good Friday Agreement.

Norway and Sweden had almost 230k checks on vehicles in 2016 ( https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ay-sweden/ ).

Still no reason it wouldn’t work here.

Except for all the reasons why it wouldn’t.

I disagree. Us and Ireland are not in schengen presently anyway. The good Friday agreement doesn’t stop an EEA and EFTA arrangement and as I’ve said already Norway and Sweden has a far busier border than Ireland and n Ireland. With more roads and vehicle crossings. Most roads are unchecked with completely free movement. The vehicle checks are mostly random and as part of operations just like when the police set up checks in the uk and pull up vehicles to test for alcohol, vehicle emissions.

As I say it’s not going to happen anyway.

Yes we are not in Schengen. That’s why Norway and Sweden have more open borders.

The Good Friday Agreement doesn’t stop a EFTA/EEA arrangement but it does insist on open borders and no customs checks. EEA/EFTA does not fulfil that requirement.

You said Norway and Sweden have busier road crossings (I will take your word for it, I can’t be arsed to check that) but you have completely ignored my evidence of the 230,000 stops on vehicles in 2016. It doesn’t matter if they are random, it doesn’t matter if there are less checks between the Republic and N Ireland. That breaks the Good Friday Agreement.

You can disagree but you are still wrong.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

What I would have liked to have seen was the government just come out two years ago and say that when we leave the EU we will drop down to EFTA membership with EEA access for a period of time whilst we look to negotiate a new arrangement. Would that not have solved all the short term problems.

You may call that a 'short term' problem but it would be a catastrophic short term problem that would damage the UK economy in the long term.

I'm aware the short time future would be catastrophic which is why I said surely dropping down to EFTA and EEA would surely solve those economic issues. All the current arrangements would stay the same. The biggest problem I can see if having to listening to the inbreds complaining about how the will of the people have been ignored and shouting 'treason' etc.

Obviously that's never going to happen anyway.

Even EEA/EFTA membership is projected to cause a 1.4% drop in GDP. That’s roughly similar to the fall in GDP following the 2008 crash.

I don’t understand why it would cause a drop as large as that. Economic relationship wise we will be in the same situation as now.

We would still be in the single market, but we would lose the trade agreements that the EU has with other states around the world.

We could build up our own trade agreements with other nations, but there’s no guarantee we’d get as good a deal as we currently have. And we’d almost certainly not, we are a much smaller market than the EU and so have less power.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/e ... 010_EN.pdf

It also doesn’t cover the Customs Union, which means the Irish border issue would not be solved.

https://www.politico.eu/article/soft-br ... -solution/

Would there also be the issue of financial passporting? This could heavily affect the financial sector which is currently a big chunk of GDP.

I think EEA/EFTA includes financial passporting but that might be an optional part of it. We'd obviously be mad not to go with financial passporting if we were to join EEA/EFTA, but we seem quite mad anyway so who knows.

Norway and Sweden seem to cope fine with their border. It works. They are always attempting to implement monitoring measures but they have even more shared roads and bridges than between N Ireland and Rep Ireland. The vast majority of them have no checks whatsoever going both ways. People and traffic travel both ways without issue. It would be no different for us between the UK and Ireland if we had the same membership as Norway. Anyway as I said it’s become a pointless topic as their seems to be no movement or political will towards this as our politicians want to be able to set our own rules and regulations. Norway just accepts the EUs regulations and moves on.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/is-the-norway-sweden-border-a-model-for-uk-ireland/

Norway and Sweden are both part of Schengen.

Norway and Sweden don't have the Good Friday Agreement.

Norway and Sweden had almost 230k checks on vehicles in 2016 ( https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit- ... ay-sweden/ ).

Still no reason it wouldn’t work here.

Except for all the reasons why it wouldn’t.

I disagree. Us and Ireland are not in schengen presently anyway. The good Friday agreement doesn’t stop an EEA and EFTA arrangement and as I’ve said already Norway and Sweden has a far busier border than Ireland and n Ireland. With more roads and vehicle crossings. Most roads are unchecked with completely free movement. The vehicle checks are mostly random and as part of operations just like when the police set up checks in the uk and pull up vehicles to test for alcohol, vehicle emissions.

As I say it’s not going to happen anyway.

Yes we are not in Schengen. That’s why Norway and Sweden have more open borders.

The Good Friday Agreement doesn’t stop a EFTA/EEA arrangement but it does insist on open borders and no customs checks. EEA/EFTA does not fulfil that requirement.

You said Norway and Sweden have busier road crossings (I will take your word for it, I can’t be arsed to check that) but you have completely ignored my evidence of the 230,000 stops on vehicles in 2016. It doesn’t matter if they are random, it doesn’t matter if there are less checks between the Republic and N Ireland. That breaks the Good Friday Agreement.

You can disagree but you are still wrong.

I still disagree. Norway choose to do border checks. They don't have to.

[Moggy]

The ideal situation for me is staying the EU but this is the next step below.

You added that in after, but to answer it, I agree it is better than a No Deal Brexit, but the Norway model does not work for our situation. You can disagree but the facts show you are wrong.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

The ideal situation for me is staying the EU but this is the next step below.

You added that in after, but to answer it, I agree it is better than a No Deal Brexit, but the Norway model does not work for our situation. You can disagree but the facts show you are wrong.

I don't believe it's a fact that Norway have to do border checks. It appears to be a choice to me. They have free movement and the same regulations as the EU.

[Photek]

Yo Star dude, you're talking complete bollox.

Norway and Sweden have arount 80 border crossings, we have about 275.

I also don't think any land owned by anyone crosses the border between Norway and Sweden, we have lots of farms that have land north and south here.

[Moggy]

The ideal situation for me is staying the EU but this is the next step below.

You added that in after, but to answer it, I agree it is better than a No Deal Brexit, but the Norway model does not work for our situation. You can disagree but the facts show you are wrong.

I don't believe it's a fact that Norway have to do border checks. It appears to be a choice to me. They have free movement and the same regulations as the EU.

They do have to do border checks because they are not in a customs union. Norway/Sweden therefore have to check what goods are coming in. Norway also imposes higher tariffs on some goods (alcohol and cigarettes for instance) and so they have to check and process those.

None of that works with the Good Friday Agreement. This is something you can say you disagree with, but you are wrong. Every law, agreement and treaty says you are wrong.

[Tafdolphin]

twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1070936000841609217

I mean...

[Moggy]

twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1070936000841609217

I mean...

Welcome to page 243.

[Lex-Man]

The ideal situation for me is staying the EU but this is the next step below.

You added that in after, but to answer it, I agree it is better than a No Deal Brexit, but the Norway model does not work for our situation. You can disagree but the facts show you are wrong.

I don't believe it's a fact that Norway have to do border checks. It appears to be a choice to me. They have free movement and the same regulations as the EU.

They do have to do border checks because they are not in a customs union. Norway/Sweden therefore have to check what goods are coming in. Norway also imposes higher tariffs on some goods (alcohol and cigarettes for instance) and so they have to check and process those.

None of that works with the Good Friday Agreement. This is something you can say you disagree with, but you are wrong. Every law, agreement and treaty says you are wrong.

The clear solution is to remove all the people from Northern Ireland and rebrand it as a nature reserve run jointly by Ireland and the UK.

[Moggy]

The ideal situation for me is staying the EU but this is the next step below.

You added that in after, but to answer it, I agree it is better than a No Deal Brexit, but the Norway model does not work for our situation. You can disagree but the facts show you are wrong.

I don't believe it's a fact that Norway have to do border checks. It appears to be a choice to me. They have free movement and the same regulations as the EU.

They do have to do border checks because they are not in a customs union. Norway/Sweden therefore have to check what goods are coming in. Norway also imposes higher tariffs on some goods (alcohol and cigarettes for instance) and so they have to check and process those.

None of that works with the Good Friday Agreement. This is something you can say you disagree with, but you are wrong. Every law, agreement and treaty says you are wrong.

The clear solution is to remove all the people from Northern Ireland and rebrand it as a nature reserve run jointly by Ireland and the UK.

As silly as it sounds, that is one of the more sensible solutions.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

Yo Star dude, you're talking complete bollox.

Norway and Sweden have arount 80 border crossings, we have about 275.

I also don't think any land owned by anyone crosses the border between Norway and Sweden, we have lots of farms that have land north and south here.

I must have read the numbers the other way round. But still only one crossing has an actual border check. As I've said previously I want to stay in the EU but EFTA and EEA membership is surely the next best option. But it's not going to happen anyway as there is no will for it.

The land ownership thing I have no idea about. That's a completely separate issue that's either going to resolve in an agreement or a few unhappy people that lose their land. No idea.

[Moggy]

Yo Star dude, you're talking complete bollox.

Norway and Sweden have arount 80 border crossings, we have about 275.

I also don't think any land owned by anyone crosses the border between Norway and Sweden, we have lots of farms that have land north and south here.

I must have read the numbers the other way round. But still only one crossing has an actual border check. As I've said previously I want to stay in the EU but EFTA and EEA membership is surely the next best option. But it's not going to happen anyway as there is no will for it.

It’s not that there’s no will for it. It’s because it doesn’t work when you take the Good Friday Agreement into account.

[Curls]

So I've lost track. Of course I understand that May's deal will most likely be voted down next week. But what then, does anyone in the know how think this can possibly end well?

As time goes on with more uncertainty, does the hope for a second referendum increase?

[Moggy]

So I've lost track. Of course I understand that May's deal will most likely be voted down next week. But what then, does anyone in the know how think this can possibly end well?

As time goes on with more uncertainty, does the hope for a second referendum increase?

The hope is May’s deal is voted down and then (of May will not do it) Parliament will act by either cancelling Brexit, kicking out the government or voting for another referendum.

None of that is guaranteed, it could just as easily lead to the disaster of No Deal if Parliament cannot agree what to do.

[Garth]

They'll maybe try to extend Article 50 by a few months too.

[Moggy]

They'll maybe try to extend Article 50 for a few months too.

True, that's probably pretty much guaranteed at this point.

[Garth]

Gammon Independence Day plans cancelled