Brexit Thread 2

[Hypes]

I genuinely don't think No-Deal Hard Brexit would win in a referendum though?

And our democracy was never supposed to be about referenda in the first place. I question the democratic validity of referenda full stop.

People voted to leave the EU. A logical interpretation of that is not to say "okay, let's a have an arrangement worse than the one we have with the EU at present". I think our politician should at least try to create something better, even if it runs counter to established wisdom.

Also, I wouldn't be too worried about hard brexit. It's easy to exaggerate the impact it would have. In the short term it is going to wipe about another 10% off the currency but most of the economic damage will be in manufacturing, which is a comparatively small part of the economy and largely based in areas there are very pro-brexit and so they can't be too upset about it. What we will need to do is accelerate urbanisation and encourage migration to the population to the main cities, which needs support from large scale housing projects, and focus on upping the service side of the economy. This has upsides as running down the population and industrial activity in non-urban areas will have significant environmental benefits and also reduce our dependency on fossil fuels.

Public spending is the second challenge because obviously we are going to need to reduce it as much as possible to remain competitive outside the EU. Currently we have large number of the population sitting on large and valuable assets in the form of housing and I think if they can afford to pay for their own social and health care they probably should. Universal healthcare can be maintained at the point of use by having means tests for those on lower incomes and insurance plans for middle-earners.

It's best to think of it like a rerun of the reforms made in the 80s. There were winners and losers back then and there will be winners and losers this time as well.

[Meep]

Obviously not my personal preference however that ship sailed two years ago.

[Moggy]

Obviously not my personal preference however that ship sailed two years ago.

While I think Brexit will happen, that doesn’t mean the fight against it shouldn’t continue. The Leavers lost in 1975, it didn’t stop them fighting for another go.

[Lagamorph]

Remember that vote of no confidence that didn't happen?

twitter.com/thetimes/status/1018604332353294336

[Garth]

I wonder do the Brexiteers even have the numbers to give her the boot? She'd have to lose support from half of the Tory MPs, and if she wins they can't make another attempt for a year (which would be after Brexit), right?

[Lagamorph]

Estimates are that there are only around 80 or so Hard Brexit MPs in the Conservative party, but it's possible that they're counting on the rest of the party supporting a No Confidence vote because of the poor/unrealistic deal she's pushing as the final word.
But yes, if it fails then a no confidence vote can't be called against her for 12 months. The only way around that would be a full no confidence in parliament vote which would result in the dissolution of parliament and the calling of a General Election, but May would still be the Conservative leader unless she stepped down, all it would do is potentially lead to Corbyn being PM instead, so the country would be strawberry floated either way.

[Moggy]

I wonder do the Brexiteers even have the numbers to give her the boot? She'd have to lose support from half of the Tory MPs, and if she wins they can't make another attempt for a year (which would be after Brexit), right?

They have the numbers to trigger a no confidence vote. They’ll be hoping that the other Tory MPs are pissed off enough with her that they’ll go along with it.

For all of her uselessness, May does seem to be made of teflon, I could see her surviving it. I guess it’ll depend on who is likely to run against her, Rees-Mogg or Boris could be off-putting enough to save May.

[Errkal]

If she survives it might give her the wake up that heffer brexit isn't as strongly supported as the very shout tories would like to have everyone believe.

[Moggy]

If she survives it might give her the wake up that heffer brexit isn't as strongly supported as the very shout tories would like to have everyone believe.

I know we take the piss, but I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to say. Heffer? Very shout?

If she defeats the ERG Tories then it might make her less worried about them and push her further towards soft Brexit. Or we might just end up with PM Rees-Mogg.

[Errkal]

If she survives it might give her the wake up that heffer brexit isn't as strongly supported as the very shout tories would like to have everyone believe.

I know we take the piss, but I genuinely have no idea what you are trying to say. Heffer? Very shout?

If she defeats the ERG Tories then it might make her less worried about them and push her further towards soft Brexit. Or we might just end up with PM Rees-Mogg.

Massive, full on.

[Squinty]

There could some crazy political gooseberry fool happening this week. Bojo's resignation speech is today or tomorrow.

[Cuttooth]

But he's already resigned...

[Squinty]

But he's already resigned...

Apparently, they are giving him the floor in the commons to make a speech. Could be incendiary. Could be a fart in the wind. Who knows.

[Rex Kramer]

I'm surprised Greening has raised her head above the parapet and called for a 2nd referendum. The Brexiteers don't want one as I'd imagine they fear a 3 way vote (Remain, May's plan and a hard brexit) which you would think would split the leave vote.

Johnson can go and strawberry float himself, a strawberry floating resignation speech. Have a word with yourself you egotistical twat.

[DML]

I know this is the darkest timeline but I'm still struggling to see the route that Mogg becomes PM. He's surely outnumbered in all respects, even if they do trigger a leadership battle? There's not going to suddenly be that many more Pro-leave MPs.

[Squinty]

I don't see Rees Mogg becoming PM soon. He will continue to be a total strawberry floating annoyance from the back benches.

[Errkal]

I know this is the darkest timeline but I'm still struggling to see the route that Mogg becomes PM. He's surely outnumbered in all respects, even if they do trigger a leadership battle? There's not going to suddenly be that many more Pro-leave MPs.

If he or his supporters have dirt on others he will end up the only candidate like with May. Remember no one wants to be in charge except idiots right now. So he doesn't need masses of support.

[Moggy]

I know this is the darkest timeline but I'm still struggling to see the route that Mogg becomes PM. He's surely outnumbered in all respects, even if they do trigger a leadership battle? There's not going to suddenly be that many more Pro-leave MPs.

It’s highly unlikely, I am usually saying PM Rees-Mogg as a joke.

It’s far from impossible though, if enough Tories think he represents their best bet of election success, they will go with him. Luckily for us, I don’t think even the current Tory party is that stupid.

[more heat than light]

Currently third favourite for next Conservative leader, though I suspect that's through people actually knowing who he is than any reasoned insight.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ive-leader

[DML]

Currently third favourite for next Conservative leader, though I suspect that's through people actually knowing who he is than any reasoned insight.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... ive-leader

Thing is, hes on all the papers so I'd imagine if you know little about politics, you'd back him.

The reality is hes a back bencher extremeist. It would be far more unlikely than say Corbyn taking over Labour.