Brexit Thread 2

[KK]

Through my letterbox this morning, ladies:

[Moggy]

Has there ever been a minority government in the history of parliament that didn't collapse?

John Major in 1996, but that government didn’t have to survive long as there was an election due in 1997.

If you count the coalition as a minority government then Cameron’s government survived.

Other than those two tenuous answers, I’m not aware of any managing to survive in the last 100 years.

[Lagamorph]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.


Also, according to a German news site the Brexit deal will potentially be finalised tomorrow

Translation swiped from ResetEra,

The Brexit negotiators want to reach an agreement on the withdrawal agreement this Sunday. This emerges from an internal document of the EU negotiators, which breaks down the "provisional timetable" and its content was presented to the EU ambassadors on Friday. The paper is available to the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

The hurdles on the way to an agreement are highlighted in red. For this Sunday is noted: "Deal made, nothing made public (in theory)". The agreement will then be approved by the UK Government on Monday. This is followed by a public announcement by British Brexit Minister Dominic Raab and EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier in Brussels.

At the center of the negotiations on Saturday, there was still the question of what a backstop could look like if there were no free trade agreement between Brussels and London after the transition phase that runs until the end of 2020.

To avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, a possible compromise solution emerged. Northern Ireland could thus remain in the European internal market for a limited period of time, which would make controls at the inner border superfluous. The rest of the UK could in turn remain linked to the EU in a customs union.

On the other hand, there was resistance from Northern Ireland on Saturday. The Northern Irish party DUP once again rejected any rule that treated Northern Ireland differently than the rest of the kingdom. In order to get a Brexit agreement through the British Parliament, Prime Minister Theresa May needs the support of the DUP.

If there is an agreement this weekend, it should be discussed on the EU side on Tuesday in the General Council and then approved by the 27 Heads of State and Government at their EU summit meeting on Wednesday evening. For the day after it is noted: "Deal with Theresa May confirmed in the European Council".

[Cuttooth]

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1051034046267043840

"Leave the UK, it's what I would do."

[Moggy]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.

You’re ignoring John Major?

[Return_of_the_STAR]

I find it odd that so many news outlets seem confident of an imminent deal yet the Gibraltar issue doesn't seem to have even been mentioned.

[Meep]

When your own government is issuing statements to companies suggesting they might want to consider moving some business outside your country you know something has made a serious strawberry float up.

[Lagamorph]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.

You’re ignoring John Major?

I just forgot about him. Can you blame me?

[Moggy]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.

You’re ignoring John Major?

I just forgot about him. Can you blame me?

Who?

[Nibble]

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1051034046267043840

"Leave the UK, it's what I would do."

Jesus strawberry floating wept.

Have they trotted out anyone to defend this gooseberry fool on camera yet? This is utter insanity.

[Alvin Flummux]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.

You’re ignoring John Major?

I just forgot about him. Can you blame me?

He's like the really boring priest from Father Ted.

[Squinty]

twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1051034046267043840

"Leave the UK, it's what I would do."

Jesus strawberry floating wept.

Have they trotted out anyone to defend this gooseberry fool on camera yet? This is utter insanity.

Party of business.

[Lex-Man]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.

You’re ignoring John Major?

I just forgot about him. Can you blame me?

He's like the really boring priest from Father Ted.

He's has gotten really bitchy in old age.

[Alvin Flummux]

Don't think the coalition counts as a minority government so basically No.

You’re ignoring John Major?

I just forgot about him. Can you blame me?

He's like the really boring priest from Father Ted.

He's has gotten really bitchy in old age.

That's his fault for getting jiggy with Edwina.

[Garth]

From the front page of The Observer:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1 ... 3675668480

[Squinty]

CUNTTTTTTTTTTT

[Sprouty]

Still can't see Brexit happening without another election, the margins are way too tight in government to get any deal, or indeed no deal voted through parliament. In that case, would May call a general election or a second referendum?

It doesn’t work like that unfortunately.

If Parliament can’t agree then we crash out of the EU with no deal. Article 50 has been triggered and would need Parliament (and the EU!) to agree an extension.

May can call for a general election but Parliament would have to agree it (with a two-thirds majority). I’d imagine Labour would almost certainly support it and it’d happen, but it’s not guaranteed just because May wants it.

A second referendum would also require Parliament’s backing, again it’d probably happen, but isn’t guaranteed. May would also have to get EU backing for an extension (as there isn’t really enough time left otherwise) and also get the EU to confirm they are happy with the plans.

It’s an absolute mess.

At the risk of you savaging me, I must point out even the no deal crash out isn't a certainty, as many legal people have already suggested it just may not be legal for the country to crash out. So even the 'No Deal' some crazies wants may not even happen!

Really I struggle to believe that this government can reach March just on the same course, something will have to give, whether thats May or something else.

“Many legal people have already suggested”

Link?

Genuinelly don't have a link, but read it a few times. Not sure what I would search for.

So you must point out that many people have suggested something and you’ve read it a few times but you don’t have anything we can read to see what those many legal people have said?

You might be right, but other than the backstop applying to N Ireland, I’m not aware of anything that would make crashing out illegal. And even if it’s illegal, that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t happen.

For all the rules, laws, guidance, politics is a battle of opinion & government has to get something through parliament and the house of lords. With DUP now threatening to block the budget or vote down a deal, we are now potentially looking at a split in the coalition and even tougher margins. A minority government of any party would not get Brexit through!

[Lagamorph]

Labour MPs reveal they are ready to rescue Theresa May's Brexit deal in Commons vote

Multiple Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament.
The MPs include the first to state publicly that they will struggle to vote against a deal secured in Brussels if the alternative is a no-deal Brexit – even if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn orders his party to oppose it.
They say that crashing out of the EU would be a disaster for their constituents, while also fearing a backlash from voters accusing them of blocking Brexit.

Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal.

One prepared to go public, Gareth Snell, MP for Stoke Central, said: “If the deal is some sort of customs union, protection of the unity of the union and looking at a future trade deal, it would be very hard to justify why we’re not supporting that.”
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke North MP, said: “If the option is voting for the deal or voting for something that would mean no deal – well, I’m not prepared to vote for no-deal.”
Don Valley MP Caroline Flint said: “I believe if there is a reasonable deal that stops us crashing out with no deal, we shouldn’t rule it out.”

[Return_of_the_STAR]

Labour MPs reveal they are ready to rescue Theresa May's Brexit deal in Commons vote

Multiple Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament.
The MPs include the first to state publicly that they will struggle to vote against a deal secured in Brussels if the alternative is a no-deal Brexit – even if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn orders his party to oppose it.
They say that crashing out of the EU would be a disaster for their constituents, while also fearing a backlash from voters accusing them of blocking Brexit.

Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal.

One prepared to go public, Gareth Snell, MP for Stoke Central, said: “If the deal is some sort of customs union, protection of the unity of the union and looking at a future trade deal, it would be very hard to justify why we’re not supporting that.”
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke North MP, said: “If the option is voting for the deal or voting for something that would mean no deal – well, I’m not prepared to vote for no-deal.”
Don Valley MP Caroline Flint said: “I believe if there is a reasonable deal that stops us crashing out with no deal, we shouldn’t rule it out.”

I don’t see why labour wouldn’t support any deal over a no deal. Once they get back into power they can look to improve the deal and form closes links if they so wish.

[Lagamorph]

Labour MPs reveal they are ready to rescue Theresa May's Brexit deal in Commons vote

Multiple Labour MPs have told The Independent they are prepared to support the Brexit agreement Theresa May hopes to bring back from Brussels, boosting the prime minister’s chances of forcing it through parliament.
The MPs include the first to state publicly that they will struggle to vote against a deal secured in Brussels if the alternative is a no-deal Brexit – even if, as expected, Jeremy Corbyn orders his party to oppose it.
They say that crashing out of the EU would be a disaster for their constituents, while also fearing a backlash from voters accusing them of blocking Brexit.

Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal.

One prepared to go public, Gareth Snell, MP for Stoke Central, said: “If the deal is some sort of customs union, protection of the unity of the union and looking at a future trade deal, it would be very hard to justify why we’re not supporting that.”
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke North MP, said: “If the option is voting for the deal or voting for something that would mean no deal – well, I’m not prepared to vote for no-deal.”
Don Valley MP Caroline Flint said: “I believe if there is a reasonable deal that stops us crashing out with no deal, we shouldn’t rule it out.”

I don’t see why labour wouldn’t support any deal over a no deal. Once they get back into power they can look to improve the deal and form closes links if they so wish.

Corbyn wants no deal Brexit. Getting the Conservatives to take the blame for it is just a bonus.