From behind the Sunday Times paywall,
The PM is fighting the cabinet, Brexiteers, the DUP and the EU. Unless she can persuade Brussels to back down, she may be finished
Theresa May said almost nothing. Only the look on her face revealed the prime minister’s feelings as one after another of a select group of her ministers lined up to denounce the Brexit deal her team had been negotiating with Brussels. Sajid Javid, the home secretary, borrowed the vintage US political insult about putting “lipstick on a pig” and called the plan little better than “third country status with lipstick on it”.
Those who were there say May allowed herself a look of surprise when Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, spoke against a proposal from Brussels for a “backstop” deal that would see Britain join a customs union in perpetuity. Hunt, along with Javid, Liam Fox and Gavin Williamson and the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, all made clear they would oppose any deal with no end point or break clause when Britain could leave the customs union without permission from Brussels.
If the ministers in the room on Thursday teatime were unhappy, those who were not invited were angry.
The three Brexitettes, Andrea Leadsom, Penny Mordaunt and Esther McVey, are this weekend exchanging calls and deciding whether to resign after this Tuesday’s full cabinet meeting. They want a firm end date. “Andrea’s on the wobble,” said one cabinet source.
Now the prime minister is fighting against her cabinet, Brexiteers and remainers on her back benches, the DUP whose 10 MPs prop up her government, the civil service and the rest of the EU.
The extended customs union plan is designed to solve another problem, that Brussels is trying to carve Northern Ireland away from the rest of the UK.
Britain is on the back foot, several ministers complained, because of remainers — including Chuka Umunna and Tony Blair — who have visited Brussels and urged officials to keep pressing in the hope that they can force a new referendum. A cabinet minister said: “Some people in the commission still think we are going to roll over and change our minds.”
Others say May has been ill-served by Robbins who, it is alleged, overstepped his brief in the spring by indicating to his opposite number, Michel Barnier, that May would give ground. “Robbins said he thought he could get Britain to agree to a customs union,” a source said. “He said he could square her.”
May’s position has also been eroded by a cavalier attitude towards the DUP. Nigel Dodds, the party’s leader in Westminster, last week sounded off to Tory MPs. “He was vitriolic about her,” one said. “He says she doesn’t listen. She sits there like a wooden tent pole. He was wondering whether she can last the month.”
The unionist dynamic has also led Ruth Davidson, the Tory leader in Scotland, and the Scottish secretary, David Mundell, to tell Downing Street that they would resign if new differences between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK were introduced — something they reckon would be exploited by the SNP to press for Scottish independence.
To make matters worse for May, Tories who backed remain but who are strong unionists, now say they will not support the deal being drawn up. Sir Hugo Swire, a former minister, said: “I was a Eurosceptic remainer. I won’t vote for anything that weakens Northern Ireland within the union. A customs union would clearly have to have an end date on it.”
The whips have also threatened MPs with a general election unless they back whatever deal May returns from Brussels with. Insiders say No 10 aides have had open discussions about an election and that extra canvassing has been ordered in target seats. One MP said: “I’ve had messages that show preparations are already taking place for an election.”
This is greeted with horror by ministers and MPs. Those in the cabinet say they would “stage an intervention” if May tried to go to the country. A former minister was blunter: “If she threatens an election we’ll change leader.”
That might happen anyway if May sticks to her course. In a heated conversation in the Commons smoking room on Wednesday night, MPs who have previously been loyal to May openly discussed submitting letters to the 1922 committee demanding a vote of no confidence in May. MPs claim that four letters were submitted last week on top of three being submitted during the week of Tory conference. One MP running the numbers said there were between 42 and 44 , four short of the number required. A senior backbencher said: “If we decide to tip it over, it’s the work of an afternoon to get the letters.”
Amazing!
