The Politics Thread 3.0

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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:06 pm

Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:Of course it's all dependent on Westminster actually giving another referendum the go ahead, which is far from guaranteed.

If they don't I could see Sturgeon trying to hold one anyway, however the number of countries that would recognise the result and/or any subsequent attempt to declare independence could be counted on one hand.


With all of their banging on about respecting "the will of the people" they would be strawberry floating mental to refuse to let Scotland have one.

But as I said earlier, polling appears to be showing a majority in Scotland are against a referendum. It'd be very easy to spin that denying another referendum IS the will of the people.


Easy to spin it either way really. It'd be a brave Tory that tells Scotland that they can't have a referendum because of a 1000 person poll in the Guardian though.

Edit:

They would also then be opening themselves up to having to run another EU referendum if polls suggested people wanted one and/or wanted to Remain in the EU. ;)

Yeah but we're talking about Theresa May here remember?

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captain red dog
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by captain red dog » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:40 pm

I don't know why they went for an end of March article 50 to be honest. Tactically it would be a blunder as the EU is currently focused on domestic elections so we would lose 6 months straight away.

I don't really see why Scots ref would be a good reason to delay it though, just shameful politicking from all really.

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Errkal
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Errkal » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:28 pm

Because if she waits and Scotland votes leave may can argue Scottish MPs shouldn't be allowed to vote effectively cutting the opposition to it.

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DML
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by DML » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:07 pm

I don't understand how The Lords can reject the bill, and then accept the exact same bill. Its an absolute joke.

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Meep
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Meep » Mon Mar 13, 2017 7:30 pm

I think denying Scotland another referendum is more likely to incite nationalism than anything, it would be condescending to the Scottish electorate. The SNP would simply vow to hold a another referendum in their next manifesto, get elected to Holyrood and then turn May's own rhetoric against her by making her agree or deny the "will of the people".

Personally, if I was bothered about maintaining the union, I would be calling the SNP's bluff now. Every forecast indicates things are only going to get worse for the Tories on pretty much every front so the longer they delay the more anger and resentment will grow in Scotland.

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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:37 pm

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KK
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by KK » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:46 pm

I don't think May will say no. She'll give it to them but probably not as soon as the SNP want.

Everything that is happening in the EU throughout 2016 also gives May some leeway.

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Dual
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Dual » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:47 am

Drumstick wrote:And a scapegoat was delivered.


*escape goat

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Moggy
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:02 am

Lagamorph wrote:Image


If the Mail are against it then it must actually be a good thing.

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captain red dog
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by captain red dog » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:13 am

Isn't the Scottish Mail actually very different from the UK Mail? I thought I read somewhere that they are much more in line with the liberal Scottish electorate than the standard DM.

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Errkal
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Errkal » Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:15 am

Looks like it.

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Banjo
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Banjo » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:09 am

Nah mate, it's just as much of a hate-filled rag.

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KK
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by KK » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:53 am

It's the Scottish Sun that backed independence last time. I don't know how much interest Murdoch himself takes in the Scottish version.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by KK » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:18 pm

It's all going a bit wrong for the SNP this morning...

The Spanish foreign minister has said that an independent Scotland would have to join the back of the queue (now where have we heard that phrase before...) if it wanted to rejoin the EU; and David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, has said that Scotland, whatever its referendum decision, will now not be able to avoid leaving the EU.

Presumably Nicola Sturgeon is just running around with her fingers in her ears screaming "LA LA LA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU"

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DML
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by DML » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:20 pm

KKLEIN wrote:It's all going a bit wrong for the SNP this morning...

The Spanish foreign minister has said that an independent Scotland would have to join the back of the queue (now where have we heard that phrase before...) if it wanted to rejoin the EU; and David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, has said that Scotland, whatever its referendum decision, will now not be able to avoid leaving the EU.

Presumably Nicola Sturgeon is just running around with her fingers in her ears screaming "LA LA LA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU"


Honesty, seems massively unfair on Scotland that!

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by KK » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:36 pm

Scotland has been screwed over, absolutely. But I can't really see what cards they have to play.

If Scotland voted to leave in a 2nd referendum, they're out of the UK, out of the EU, they'd have to renegotiate trade deals, they'd have no currency, they'd have crippling debt, the subsidies from Westminster would go, the oil has floated out to sea...and on and on it goes. It'd make Brexit look like a walk in the park for what they'd inflict on themselves. On one hand you've had this argument that the UK and/or England is simply too small to 'make it on its own' in the world. Well if you hold that belief, Scotland is then royally in the gooseberry fool. This only works if the EU as a whole is willing to do favours...and by the looks of it they're absolutely not, just as they weren't with EU citizenship. Germany weren't willing to discuss anything, we weren't willing to then take the moral high-ground either, and thus we are in the current shitty situation with that.

Spain have now reiterated that Scotland would have to meet the requirements for re-entry into the EU, and then negotiations could then begin. You're looking at years and years out in the wilderness...even if you go with the notion everything could be drastically sped up.

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Lotus
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lotus » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:36 pm

^ But did/do people expect that Scotland would be given special treatment to be fast-tracked in and have ususal processes for new members waived?

What will be interesting is whether the SNP has answers to some of the questions that it didn't have answers to before; questions on currency, economy, borders, etc. It seems difficult to imagine they will, given that they didn't last time, and seem to want to hold the referendum while the UK is still on the shifting sands of EU negotiation.

What's also interesting is that some people seem admant that Scotland will thrive and be some kind of land of milk and honey while the UK - which has a far bigger economy, population, range of industries and global presence - will be doomed to failure.

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Preezy
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Preezy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:40 pm

Scotland can survive on its shortbread industries, they will hold fast.

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Errkal
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Errkal » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:41 pm

Preezy wrote:Scotland can survive on its shortbread industries, they will hold fast.


Mate that industry will crumble.

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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Rex Kramer » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:42 pm

It'll have to be tartan then though I've heard that sales can be a bit chequered.

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