The Politics Thread 3.0

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Corazon de Leon
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Corazon de Leon » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:44 pm

DML wrote:
KKLEIN wrote:It's all going a bit wrong for the SNP this morning...

The Spanish foreign minister has said that an independent Scotland would have to join the back of the queue (now where have we heard that phrase before...) if it wanted to rejoin the EU; and David Mundell, the Scottish secretary, has said that Scotland, whatever its referendum decision, will now not be able to avoid leaving the EU.

Presumably Nicola Sturgeon is just running around with her fingers in her ears screaming "LA LA LA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU"


Honesty, seems massively unfair on Scotland that!


The Spanish have been very down on our chances of entering the EU since the first referendum - I genuinely don't understand why, given that other EU sources have noted they would be quite happy for us to come in as quickly as possible.

As I think about it, it's probably to do with the separatist elements of Spanish politics; the Basque region etc, and keeping them from a precedent for EU membership should they eventually gain their independence.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:49 pm

Corazon de Leon wrote:As I think about it, it's probably to do with the separatist elements of Spanish politics; the Basque region etc, and keeping them from a precedent for EU membership should they eventually gain their independence.


That’s the exact reason. And as Spain has a veto, Scotland has no chance of remaining/joining if the Spanish fear it will encourage their own separatist regions.

If it wasn’t for that, then I would imagine the EU would be happy to allow Scotland to remain in the EU, after all they are already members, but I just don’t see what Scotland could do to persuade Spain to go along with it.
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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:51 pm

Part of the issue might also be not wanting to piss off the other countries currently in the queue for EU membership. They might not be too happy if Scotland suddenly gets to jump the queue and gets preferential treatment over them when they've been waiting for years.


Moggy wrote:If it wasn’t for that, then I would imagine the EU would be happy to allow Scotland to remain in the EU, after all they are already members, but I just don’t see what Scotland could do to persuade Spain to go along with it.

Allowing Scotland to "Stay in the EU" would require a change in EU law approved by every member state. That would probably take almost as long as just applying for Membership would.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:52 pm

They are (currently) already a member of the EU though, it's not like they would be jumping the queue.
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:54 pm

Lagamorph wrote:Allowing Scotland to "Stay in the EU" would require a change in EU law approved by every member state. That would probably take almost as long as just applying for Membership would.


Does it? This kept coming up during the last Scottish referendum but I never saw a definitive answer as to whether Scotland's UK EU membership would be able to carry over into Scotland remaining in the EU outside of the UK.
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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:55 pm

Moggy wrote:They are (currently) already a member of the EU though, it's not like they would be jumping the queue.

By law they have to leave the EU when they go independent though, there is currently no ability to retain their membership even if Scotland left the UK before the UK left the EU.
So anything other than going through the full application process the same as any outside nation must do would be jumping the queue.
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:56 pm

Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:Allowing Scotland to "Stay in the EU" would require a change in EU law approved by every member state. That would probably take almost as long as just applying for Membership would.


Does it? This kept coming up during the last Scottish referendum but I never saw a definitive answer as to whether Scotland's UK EU membership would be able to carry over into Scotland remaining in the EU outside of the UK.

The EU said it during the last referendum and they're saying it again right now,

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ssion-says
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 72956.html
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:00 pm

Lagamorph wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:Allowing Scotland to "Stay in the EU" would require a change in EU law approved by every member state. That would probably take almost as long as just applying for Membership would.


Does it? This kept coming up during the last Scottish referendum but I never saw a definitive answer as to whether Scotland's UK EU membership would be able to carry over into Scotland remaining in the EU outside of the UK.

The EU said it during the last referendum and they're saying it again right now,

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ssion-says
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 72956.html


The Guardian link:

An independent Scotland would have to apply to join the EU, a senior official in Brussels has said, complicating Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a second independence referendum.

A European commission spokesman indicated that any newly independent country would have to negotiate to join, referring to the position adopted by the former commission president José Manuel Barroso.


The Independent link is similar, "a spokesperson said".

"A senior official said" "former commission president said" is not the same thing as law.

I am not saying Scotland would be able to continue, but it is certainly not out of the question or against EU law/rules. Spain would fight it though and so it probably is a no-go for Scotland.
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by KK » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:01 pm

The right thing by Scotland and the UK as a whole would be for May to delay a referendum until Scotland knows exactly what they're voting for in terms of a post-Brexit UK. If however this becomes more a war between Sturgeon, the SNP and the Conservatives, May could call her bluff and agree to run it next year. Sturgeon could just run and fund it anyway, but then you'd have a constitutional crisis.

I doubt May wants to go down in history, as Cameron didn't, of splitting up the UK. You can't sensibly expect the Conservatives to handle both Brexit and Scottish independence either...talk about stretching yourself too thin. This country barely has any negotiators as it is!

I think the SNP wants to be delayed because it then gives them something to piss and moan about in the meantime. Everything wrong in Scotland is always London's fault, just as everything going wrong in England was the EU, and every perceived wrong in America was Obama's fault according to the GOP. You shift the blame onto somebody else, it's normal.
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Rocsteady
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Rocsteady » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:39 pm

captain red dog wrote:Isn't the Scottish Mail actually very different from the UK Mail? I thought I read somewhere that they are much more in line with the liberal Scottish electorate than the standard DM.

That's totally incorrect, they're almost identical. They replace a couple of right-wing English columnists with right-wing Scottish columnists and that's literally it.
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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Tue Mar 14, 2017 1:48 pm

It's the Mail on Sunday that has a different editorial team to the regular Mail I think.
The Mail on Sunday was pro-Remain during the EU referendum as I recall.
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Lotus
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lotus » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:14 pm

Surely on the membership side of things, it's the UK that's currently a member, not Scotland. Scotland joining the EU as its own sovereign nation, presumably with the Euro (or its own currency) is different to it being part of the UK. Makes sense for it to go through the same channels of application etc as any other country.
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:19 pm

Lotus wrote:Surely on the membership side of things, it's the UK that's currently a member, not Scotland. Scotland joining the EU as its own sovereign nation, presumably with the Euro (or its own currency) is different to it being part of the UK. Makes sense for it to go through the same channels of application etc as any other country.


It makes sense either way.

At the moment Scotland is a member of the EU as it is a member of the UK. It is not an unreasonable idea to suggest that Scotland stays in the EU (where it already is) is if it leaves the UK. That will probably not be allowed to happen (unless they offer Spain something amazing in return!) and so they will have to apply as a new member if they leave the UK.

Both of those possibilities are logical.

It will be interesting to see just how nasty the Brexit negotiations get and how much the UK pisses the EU off. A pissed off EU declaring a few days before the referendum that an independent Scotland could stay in the EU would make things interesting...
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captain red dog
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by captain red dog » Tue Mar 14, 2017 3:10 pm

Rocsteady wrote:
captain red dog wrote:Isn't the Scottish Mail actually very different from the UK Mail? I thought I read somewhere that they are much more in line with the liberal Scottish electorate than the standard DM.

That's totally incorrect, they're almost identical. They replace a couple of right-wing English columnists with right-wing Scottish columnists and that's literally it.

Ah right, I thought there was one paper that took a different approach to the London verdion during the referendum but nice to see the Scots have to take their share of The Mail too!
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Rex Kramer » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:11 pm

Good news for the self-employed and I'd imagine bad news for anyone employed as Chancellor.

Plans to increase National Insurance levels for self-employed people - announced in the Budget last week - have been dropped.
Chancellor Philip Hammond has said the government will not proceed with the increases which were criticised for breaking a 2015 manifesto pledge.
In a letter to Tory MPs, he said: "There will be no increases in... rates in this Parliament."
Mr Hammond will explain the U-turn in a Commons statement later.
National Insurance rise is fair, says PM
Reality Check- Do 60% benefit from NI changes
Mr Hammond had faced a furious backlash by Conservative backbenchers, who accused him of breaking a general election manifesto commitment not to put up National Insurance, income tax or VAT.
In his letter explaining his change of heart, the chancellor said: "It is very important both to me and to the prime minister that we are compliant not just with the letter, but also the spirit of the commitments that were made.
"In the light of what has emerged as a clear view among colleagues and a significant section of the public, I have decided not to proceed with the Class 4 NIC measure set out in the Budget."
Mr Hammond's Budget announcement would have increased Class 4 NICs from 9% to 10% in April 2018, and to 11% in 2019, to bring it closer to the 12% currently paid by employees.
BBC assistant political editor Norman Smith said the proposal suggested "a lack of political sophistication", with Mr Hammond not realising the storm his announcement would provoke.
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by KK » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:16 pm

Shows they're willing to listen, I guess. It's not like there's any opposition or an upcoming general election (that we know of) - opinion polls have them way out in front. He could have gotten away with it.
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Cuttooth » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:18 pm

KKLEIN wrote:Shows they're willing to listen, I guess. It's not like there's any opposition or an upcoming general election (that we know of) - opinion polls have them way out in front. He could have gotten away with it.

All they care about what The Mail and The Sun think. So much government policy seems to be set against a backdrop of running it through the shitty filters of Dacre and Murdoch.
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Memento Mori
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Memento Mori » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:21 pm

As a self-employed contractor theoretically that should have damaged me but the BBC budget website was saying I was £9 a week better off after the budget. A ridiculous decision in the first place though, the self-employed have none of the rights the employed have (holiday pay, sick pay etc) the lower tax is to mitigate that.
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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Rex Kramer » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:46 pm

Given the U-turn you'd imagine PMQs would be a gaping open goal from 6 yards out for Corbyn. Let's go and have a (fake as it's already happened) look. :fp:

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Wed Mar 15, 2017 12:49 pm

Cuttooth wrote:
KKLEIN wrote:Shows they're willing to listen, I guess. It's not like there's any opposition or an upcoming general election (that we know of) - opinion polls have them way out in front. He could have gotten away with it.

All they care about what The Mail and The Sun think. So much government policy seems to be set against a backdrop of running it through the shitty filters of Dacre and Murdoch.


This. Listening to people would be good, but this was clearly a U-turn based on the Tory party shitting itself over the reaction of the Sun and Mail. Which is silly, there is no way the Sun or the Mail are going to support Corbyn when the next election rolls around. :lol:

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