The Politics Thread 3.0

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captain red dog
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by captain red dog » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:25 pm

I don't see any reason to block it. But I have kept an eye on the polls since Brexit and it doesn't appear public opinion has really shifted that much. As such, this is a massive risk for the SNP. If they lose again then independence will be done and dusted for a long, long time and the SNP could see a Labour/UKIP style existential crisis. I don't see them having a popularity bounce this time if they lose.

If they win, then the work is really going to start for them. I'd hope the UK will put Scotland at the front of the queue when it comes to a trade deal, as I wouldn't want anyone north of the border suffering during the process of trying to get EU membership. Having Trump in the White House with familial links to Scotland could be beneficial, but Sturgeon has her principles so might want to make a stand against cosying up to him.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:28 pm

captain red dog wrote:But I have kept an eye on the polls since Brexit


We all have and they still haven't gone back where they came from!!!!1!!! :x

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:30 pm

;)

Seriously though I wouldn't take too much notice of the polls on things like this. Some polls had Scotland voting for independence last time and pretty much all of the polls had the UK voting to remain in the EU.

Personally I don't think Scotland will vote to leave, but a lot will depend on how May's Brexit negotiations go over the next year or so.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Photek » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:30 pm

captain red dog wrote:Having Trump in the White House with familial links to Scotland could be beneficial, but Sturgeon has her principles so might want to make a stand against cosying up to him.

Scottish people hate trump more than the English.

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captain red dog
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by captain red dog » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:44 pm

Photek wrote:
captain red dog wrote:Having Trump in the White House with familial links to Scotland could be beneficial, but Sturgeon has her principles so might want to make a stand against cosying up to him.

Scottish people hate trump more than the English.

They hate the English but they are still happy to take our £££s!

Seriously though, on the subject of polling, it's interesting that the pre-ref polling was neck and neck yet after the vote it seemed to reflect the 10% lead from the vote. I'd love to know what was actually being done about that as the general election had the same phenomenon as did the US election.

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DML
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by DML » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:51 pm

captain red dog wrote:
Photek wrote:
captain red dog wrote:Having Trump in the White House with familial links to Scotland could be beneficial, but Sturgeon has her principles so might want to make a stand against cosying up to him.

Scottish people hate trump more than the English.

They hate the English but they are still happy to take our £££s!

Seriously though, on the subject of polling, it's interesting that the pre-ref polling was neck and neck yet after the vote it seemed to reflect the 10% lead from the vote. I'd love to know what was actually being done about that as the general election had the same phenomenon as did the US election.


Its because the question has changed. Some people have surrendered the idea that Brexit will definitely happen, so will be more willing to answer 'Yes' to a poll stating whether we should leave the EU, because they want it over and done with and can see the damage waiting may cause. I'll tell you now, if that referendum was re-run tomorrow, Remain would win a larger margin than 52%.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Drumstick » Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:55 pm

Peter Crisp wrote:A problem they may face is that last time they said the vote was a once in a lifetime opportunity and now they've gone back on that and it looks like the losing side are just refusing to accept the result which may impact negatively on the chances of the leave side.
Who's to say they won't just call for a third or fourth referendum if they lose again?

As has been pointed out, their circumstances have drastically changed.

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Hexx
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Hexx » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:11 pm

Drumstick wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:A problem they may face is that last time they said the vote was a once in a lifetime opportunity and now they've gone back on that and it looks like the losing side are just refusing to accept the result which may impact negatively on the chances of the leave side.
Who's to say they won't just call for a third or fourth referendum if they lose again?

As has been pointed out, their circumstances have drastically changed.


They knew their "once in a lifetime" chance was going to be followed soon after by an EU ref didn't they?

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:13 pm

Of course it's all dependent on Westminster actually giving another referendum the go ahead, which is far from guaranteed.

If they don't I could see Sturgeon trying to hold one anyway, however the number of countries that would recognise the result and/or any subsequent attempt to declare independence could be counted on one hand.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:13 pm

Hexx wrote:
Drumstick wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:A problem they may face is that last time they said the vote was a once in a lifetime opportunity and now they've gone back on that and it looks like the losing side are just refusing to accept the result which may impact negatively on the chances of the leave side.
Who's to say they won't just call for a third or fourth referendum if they lose again?

As has been pointed out, their circumstances have drastically changed.


They knew their "once in a lifetime" chance was going to be followed soon after by an EU ref didn't they?


No they didn't. The Scottish referendum was on 18 September 2014. The Tory party launched their 2015 manifesto containing the referendum promise in April 2015 and the general election was held on 7 May 2015.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:14 pm

Lagamorph wrote:Of course it's all dependent on Westminster actually giving another referendum the go ahead, which is far from guaranteed.

If they don't I could see Sturgeon trying to hold one anyway, however the number of countries that would recognise the result and/or any subsequent attempt to declare independence could be counted on one hand.


With all of their banging on about respecting "the will of the people" they would be strawberry floating mental to refuse to let Scotland have one.

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Hexx
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Hexx » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:14 pm

Moggy wrote:
Hexx wrote:
Drumstick wrote:
Peter Crisp wrote:A problem they may face is that last time they said the vote was a once in a lifetime opportunity and now they've gone back on that and it looks like the losing side are just refusing to accept the result which may impact negatively on the chances of the leave side.
Who's to say they won't just call for a third or fourth referendum if they lose again?

As has been pointed out, their circumstances have drastically changed.


They knew their "once in a lifetime" chance was going to be followed soon after by an EU ref didn't they?


No they didn't. The Scottish referendum was on 18 September 2014. The Tory party launched their 2015 manifesto containing the referendum promise in April 2015 and the general election was held on 7 May 2015.


Oh shush you. People can prove anything if you bring facts into it.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:24 pm

Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:Of course it's all dependent on Westminster actually giving another referendum the go ahead, which is far from guaranteed.

If they don't I could see Sturgeon trying to hold one anyway, however the number of countries that would recognise the result and/or any subsequent attempt to declare independence could be counted on one hand.


With all of their banging on about respecting "the will of the people" they would be strawberry floating mental to refuse to let Scotland have one.

But as I said earlier, polling appears to be showing a majority in Scotland are against a referendum. It'd be very easy to spin that denying another referendum IS the will of the people.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:27 pm

Lagamorph wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:Of course it's all dependent on Westminster actually giving another referendum the go ahead, which is far from guaranteed.

If they don't I could see Sturgeon trying to hold one anyway, however the number of countries that would recognise the result and/or any subsequent attempt to declare independence could be counted on one hand.


With all of their banging on about respecting "the will of the people" they would be strawberry floating mental to refuse to let Scotland have one.

But as I said earlier, polling appears to be showing a majority in Scotland are against a referendum. It'd be very easy to spin that denying another referendum IS the will of the people.


Easy to spin it either way really. It'd be a brave Tory that tells Scotland that they can't have a referendum because of a 1000 person poll in the Guardian though.

Edit:

They would also then be opening themselves up to having to run another EU referendum if polls suggested people wanted one and/or wanted to Remain in the EU. ;)

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Hexx » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:34 pm

Sounds like Article 50 will be delayed because of this.

Not that they ever intended to do it this week. Obviously. :slol: :fp:

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Drumstick » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:41 pm

Lagamorph wrote:But as I said earlier, polling appears to be showing a majority in Scotland are against a referendum. It'd be very easy to spin that denying another referendum IS the will of the people.

All that's needed to undermine that point is to point out that recent polling suggested:

No party being able to assume government with a majority
A narrow remain win
A Clinton landside

None of which were correct and two were wildly off.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Moggy » Mon Mar 13, 2017 4:46 pm

Hexx wrote:Sounds like Article 50 will be delayed because of this.

Not that they ever intended to do it this week. Obviously. :slol: :fp:


They should delay it until after the fourth Scottish referendum in 2036.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Drumstick » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:03 pm

And a scapegoat was delivered.

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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by Lagamorph » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:06 pm

Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:Of course it's all dependent on Westminster actually giving another referendum the go ahead, which is far from guaranteed.

If they don't I could see Sturgeon trying to hold one anyway, however the number of countries that would recognise the result and/or any subsequent attempt to declare independence could be counted on one hand.


With all of their banging on about respecting "the will of the people" they would be strawberry floating mental to refuse to let Scotland have one.

But as I said earlier, polling appears to be showing a majority in Scotland are against a referendum. It'd be very easy to spin that denying another referendum IS the will of the people.


Easy to spin it either way really. It'd be a brave Tory that tells Scotland that they can't have a referendum because of a 1000 person poll in the Guardian though.

Edit:

They would also then be opening themselves up to having to run another EU referendum if polls suggested people wanted one and/or wanted to Remain in the EU. ;)

Yeah but we're talking about Theresa May here remember?

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captain red dog
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 3.0
by captain red dog » Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:40 pm

I don't know why they went for an end of March article 50 to be honest. Tactically it would be a blunder as the EU is currently focused on domestic elections so we would lose 6 months straight away.

I don't really see why Scots ref would be a good reason to delay it though, just shameful politicking from all really.


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