Not all that long ago I would've genuinely believed all this stuff hitting at once would be more than enough to cause the government of any civilised country to utterly collapse. Every bit of common sense says that it should.
Return_of_the_STAR wrote:I really don’t see Mays goverment collapsing anytime soon. I just think they will carry on regardless. May could even run through another wheat field and get away with it.
They have a wafer thin majority via coalition. They are disaster after disaster right now. If they lose a few MPS or the DUP quit and they won't have a choice. When so much chaos is happening I wouldn't rule it out.
Lagamorph wrote:So what would actually happen if May's government collapsed? Not just in terms of the negotiations with the EU, but for the running of the country itself.
An election to find a new government.
I have to wonder how the Tories would even begin to contest it right now. The collapse would mean May is gone, and nobody actually wants to be in charge. Boris seems to be turning out to have little to no actual support behind him after his recent antics. I suspect it would take the Tories longer to find a new leader than the election campaign would actually last. I doubt the entire process could go on hold just because they're busy infighting and have no leader.
No-one will even want to be leader. After all this crap, they'd be staring down the barrel of a GE against Corbyn at the start of next year. Which you'd have to imagine given the total mess the gov has been in since the last election would be a guaranteed Labour majority.
Any candidate would basically be putting themselves in the firing line and then most likely see their career in front-bench politics ended.
I could very easily see Sturgeon demanding that any Coaltion with the SNP is completely dependent on them being allowed to hold another independence referendum during that parliament, which I doubt there's much enthusiasm for in the Labour party. Anecdotally there's not exactly overwhelming support for it in Scotland outside of the SNP themselves either.
I don’t think the government will collapse in the way governments have in the past. The Fixed Term Parliament Act means that there can’t be another election until 2022, unless 2/3rds of Parliament votes for it.
With the current state of things, the Tories may think it’s better for them to push on as a minority government (assuming the DUP stopped their support) and refuse to vote for another election.
It’s far more likely that there’ll be a leadership contest and May will get forced out. The only thing stopping that is that nobody wants the job until after Brexit. But they might decide things have gone so far that they have no choice but to get rid of her.
A motion of no confidence, or censure motion, is a motion moved in the House of Commons with the wording: 'That this House has no confidence in HM Government'. If such a motion is agreed to, and a new government with the support of a majority of MPs cannot be formed within a period of 14 calendar days, Parliament is dissolved and an early General Election is triggered.
A motion of no confidence is one of only two ways in which an early General Election may be triggered under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.