The Politics Thread 3.0

[Drumstick]

you see it with Trump who genuinely believes that he was self made and that his fathers wealth (and a “small” loan of $1m) had no impact at all on his success.

Didn't he claim it was $1m but it turned out to actually be $14m?

He's claimed all sorts of figures. Nobody really knows.

The only thing anyone can be sure of is that whatever figure he claims won't be truthful.

[Garth]

Just back from voting, did my best to punish DUP. They had a couple of goons hanging around outside giving out leaflets showing how to vote for all the DUP candidates

[Moggy]

Just back from voting, did my best to punish DUP.

[Memento Mori]

They had a couple of goons hanging around outside giving out leaflets showing how to vote for all the DUP candidates

That certainly sounds illegal.

[Squinty]

Just back from voting, did my best to punish DUP. They had a couple of goons hanging around outside giving out leaflets showing how to vote for all the DUP candidates

Same with my polling station. Twats.

[Meep]

High turnout at assembly elections! This is excellent news as it means people are upset, which is bad for the dominant parties.

I went for:
1. Sheridan (Some unofficial Labour candidate, who I picked because he was pro-choice, pro-equality and generally on point with most of my beliefs)
2. Green
3. Alliance
4. Social Democratic and Labour Party
5. Ulster Unionist Party
6. Sinn Féinn

The only candidates left on the ballot were Conservative and DUP, next to whom an empty chair is preferable.

[Squinty]

I seriously hope that that is because of the younger generation.

It would be surprising if we ended up with two different parties this time. I don't expect it will happen, but it would be cool.

[Squinty]

Well, I guess we are going back to Direct Rule then.

[Meep]

The DUP will try to spread blame wherever they can and attempt to delegitimise the result, but the reality is people only voted the way they did because of public opinion. What they should be doing, if they care about 'unionism' is taking a good hard look at themselves and their conduct and thinking about how they can do things differently. People are tired of their blind antagonism and dishonesty. If they want to stay relevant they need to be less adversarial and more willing to admit to faults. Unfortunately, this is like asking a wild beast to be more civilised. Their party is built on antagonism so its not likely to change. Of course, the longer they go on like that the more of the electorate will realise they are never going to change and abandon them.

On their current trajectory I cannot see them doing anything but worse in future elections.

The likelihood of an assembly being negotiated in the next three weeks is close to nil, however, and the entire Good Friday Agreement is in jeopardy because of that fact. Yet another crisis to add onto Theresa May's growing pile! No surprise the BBC is playing down the significance of this.

BTW I predicted that the Brexit result would lead to a massive upsurge and reinvigoration of nationalism. Looking at turnout and Sinn Féin it seems I was correct.

[KK]

It took some time but we knew it was coming. The Mail today have gone after Wikipedia. SAD.

http://www.dailyfail.co.uk/news/article ... genda.html

[That]

The making of a Wiki-Lie: Chilling story of one twisted oddball and a handful of anonymous activists who appointed themselves as censors to promote their own warped agenda on a website that's a byword for inaccuracy

What a headline.

[bear]

And now I'll post up my analysis of the winners and losers, based on following the election primarily through Twitter.


Winners


Sinn Fein

The headline will be they increased their overall vote percentage by 3.9% which is impressive but whats truly impressive is when you compare this years first preferences (224,245) to last years (166,785), a 34% improvement inside a year. Considering that their rivals, the SDLP and PBP, also managed to increase the number of votes they got even if their percentage of the vote dropped then Sinn Fein did a simply superb job of getting last years non-voters to "get their holes to the polls", to quote Senor LADFLEG.


Alliance

Another party where focusing on their percentage of the vote doesn't really highlight how impressive their showing was. 72,717 is a 50% increase compared to 2016 and a ringing endorsement of Naomi Long who has generally been regarded as the most impressive leader this campaign, especially in the debates. Stayed on 8 seats but considering the assembly was reduced from 108 to 90 that's a good result.

SDLP

Might be a bit controversial to put SDLP in the winners pile but they increased their number of votes and kept 12 seats at the end of the election. Ultimately benefitted from the Nesbitt encouraging UUP voters to give them a second or third preference.

Greens
Came in with two seats. Left with two. Has to be considered a good result considering the overall reduction in seats.


Losers

Traditional Unionist Voice
Allister kept his seat but the parties share of the vote was down and their number of votes was down which has to be a serious disappointment to them. If the DUP had reached 29 seats then Allister would have been their go to guy in order to use the petition of concern but as it is he'll be left on the sidelines.

People Before Profit
Lost out to a resurgent Sinn Fein. Their pro-Brexit stance seemed foolish at the time and just looks idiotic now.

Ulster Unionist Party
Could easily be tagged as the biggest loser as a golden opportunity to gain ground on the DUP was squandered. Nesbitts attempt to forge some sort of alliance with the SDLP was risky and ultimately I feel the election just came too soon for them. If they had more to show that working with the SDLP could be a positive thing then they'd have fared better.


DUP

The self styled "leaders of unionism" took a gamble by believing they were untouchable and ultimately paid a heavy price for their arrogance. They completely underestimated the electorates anger about RHI and went out of their way to antagonize Nationalists with the Liofa cuts and the crocodile remarks.

Ultimately, Arlenes feed the crocodile line was the turning point of this election and may well end up being seen as one of the most important moments in Northern Irish politics since the Good Friday Agreement. Hyperbolic? Maybe a little but its genuinely hard to overstate just how big of an impact that stupid line had on this election. It enraged the nationalist community and Sinn Fein received a massive boost after that. The nationalist vote had been in decline despite the makeup of Northern Irelands population changing in a way which suggested it should have been on the rise. Arlenes arrogance lit a fire under the nationalist vote and for the first time Unionism does not have a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly. The Assembly was reduced by 18 seats and 16 of those seats were unionist. That's all on her head. She has gone from being a great asset to a massive liability and the DUP simply have to get rid of her. Her sheer pig headedness was the best retirement present Martin McGuinness could have wished for.

[Return_of_the_STAR]

I don't really understand n Ireland. Who got the most votes, republican or union parties? Or was it a pretty much 50/50 split?

[Moggy]

I don't really understand n Ireland. Who got the most votes, republican or union parties? Or was it a pretty much 50/50 split?

I think the republicans combined have one more seat than the unionists. But N Ireland has to share power so I'm not sure it makes a great deal of difference.

[Meep]

It's not fifty/fifty because there are non-nationalist, non-unionist parties like Alliance. Both unionists and nationalists got a minority this time around, which is the first time unionists did not get a full majority. The Democratic Unionists are still the largest party though, albeit only by one seat more the Sinn Féin.

[Lagamorph]

So, for someone like me who doesn't understand Northern Island politics in the slightest, what does this actually mean? What's "Direct Rule" and "Power Sharing"? The troubles were before my time and not something I've ever looked into so I'm not really sure on what's really happening with Northern Island politics.

[Moggy]

So, for someone like me who doesn't understand Northern Island politics in the slightest, what does this actually mean? What's "Direct Rule" and "Power Sharing"? The troubles were before my time and not something I've ever looked into so I'm not really sure on what's really happening with Northern Island politics.

Direct rule = being ruled by Westminster instead of their own regional assembly.

Power Sharing = Unionists and Republicans sharing power rather than just one side being in control.

[Lagamorph]

So in the event of Direct Rule, what happens to the people who've been elected? They're basically out of a job? What kind of representation does Northern Island get in Westminster?

[Wrathy]

So in the event of Direct Rule, what happens to the people who've been elected? They're basically out of a job? What kind of representation does Northern Island get in Westminster?

When it's suspended they have no power. They don't get recalled and there's no automatic requirement for new elections when it gets un-suspended. I think they therefore keep their salaries etc but I'm not 100% sure on this point.

As to the representation, we get strawberry float all. We're not even inconvenient like the SNP, we're just an irrelevance. And about a quarter of the MPs don't show up to Westminster at all, since they won't swear an oath to the Queen.

Also, at the risk of sounding like I'm being patronising, there's only one Island. The country is called Northern Ireland and shares a land border with the Republic to the South.

[Lex-Man]

So in the event of Direct Rule, what happens to the people who've been elected? They're basically out of a job? What kind of representation does Northern Island get in Westminster?

They would elect people to the houses of Parliament and have no direct control over northern Ireland outside what a normal mp has.