The Politics Thread 3.0

[Rex Kramer]

Erm, yes it can.

A motion of no confidence, or censure motion, is a motion moved in the House of Commons with the wording: 'That this House has no confidence in HM Government'. If such a motion is agreed to, and a new government with the support of a majority of MPs cannot be formed within a period of 14 calendar days, Parliament is dissolved and an early General Election is triggered.

A motion of no confidence is one of only two ways in which an early General Election may be triggered under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011.

https://www.parliament.uk/site-informat ... onfidence/

[Rocsteady]

Yes, it can. Stephen Kinnock proposed one recently.

[Lagamorph]

Corbyn probably wouldn't want that.
He wants hard Brexit badly, this way though the Tories do it and take the blame while he gets what he wants without the negative press.

[Moggy]

I didn’t realise that the Fixed Parliament Act allowed for a motion of no confidence.

That could be interesting. Does Corbyn think he can get the support of all of his party (that’s not guaranteed ) as well as all of the others, plus enough Tory/DUP defectors?

As weak and chaotic as the Tory party is at the moment, I don’t see that enough of them would vote against their own party just to force through an election that they may well lose.

[Cuttooth]

Yeah that's what I thought. It would be a very strange situation where two-thirds-minus-one of the House of Commons could think the government not fit for purpose but unable to dissolve Parliament until the mandated general election.

The FTPA is supposed to to quell the ability to call snap elections when the governing party is well on top. Arguably it worked pretty well earlier this year!

EDIT - No, I don't think enough moderate Tory rebels would vote against being in power for a motion to pass. Would be interesting though because I can't see how this zombie government can recover at the moment.

[Moggy]

I can't see how this zombie government can recover at the moment.

The options are:

Theresa May calls another snap election and gets 2/3rds support in Parliament. Sound ridiculous, but would actually be the least ridiculous thing to happen in UK politics over the last few months.

Corbyn (or somebody else) calls for a motion of no confidence, wins the vote and an election is called. You’d imagine that the Tories will be decimated in the subsequent election, but then we all thought they’d win 100+ majority when May called the last election so the Tories would probably win 650 seats outright.

Corbyn (or somebody else) calls for a motion of no confidence and loses the vote. Massively damaging to Corbyn (or whoever calls it) and might even result in reasserting some authority for May/the Tories (“See! Everyone has confidence in me!”).

The Tories knife May in the back and a new PM is appointed by them. This is massively risky for whoever does the stabbing, it’s risky for the party to be seen as fighting during Brexit and there is no guarantee whoever takes over will be any better than May. The whole front bench look incompetent at the moment, who could realistically do a better job? Who would want to be the one in charge during Brexit?

Theresa May shambles on like a terrible plotline from the Walking Dead (and that show has been appalling lately) through the Brexit process and possibly up until just before the 2022 election. This is the option I think May and the majority of Tories favour and so is probably the most likely to happen.

Even though I think the last option is the most likely, I predict that some ambitious but obscure Tory will stick a knife in by early next year. He/She will smell the blood in the water and strike, either as part of an ambition to be PM or on behalf of Boris who will not want to strike the first blow.

[satriales]

I didn’t realise that the Fixed Parliament Act allowed for a motion of no confidence.

That could be interesting. Does Corbyn think he can get the support of all of his party (that’s not guaranteed ) as well as all of the others, plus enough Tory/DUP defectors?

As weak and chaotic as the Tory party is at the moment, I don’t see that enough of them would vote against their own party just to force through an election that they may well lose.

They just need a few by-elections to make it close. I doubt it will happen this year but it's only a matter of time.

[Lex-Man]

I would imagine that DUP would keep May in power if such a motion was tabled.

[Rex Kramer]

And imagine how much that'll cost us.

[Moggy]

twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/928552814309249024

The “elitists” says the man who posts a photo of himself in a gold lift.

[Lex-Man]

And imagine how much that'll cost us.

Well the Brexit talks would never get expanded and we would be in serious risk of crashing out of the EU with no deal as it would take a couple of months until we had a new parliament assuming that we didn't end up with a hung parliament.

[Moggy]

And imagine how much that'll cost us.

Well the Brexit talks would never get expanded and we would be in serious risk of crashing out of the EU with no deal as it would take a couple of months until we had a new parliament assuming that we didn't end up with a hung parliament.

I am not sure that is an issue, we are on the brink of crashing out anyway.

EU sources close to the negotiations have told me they believe the UK has only two weeks left to make progress on the Brexit divorce issues.

Otherwise, I've been told, EU leaders are extremely unlikely to vote at their December summit to widen talks to include trade and transition deals - as the UK so dearly wants.

---

And why are there only two weeks left for the UK to move on the money, according to the EU?

Because that is when the 27 EU capitals start discussing the draft conclusions to the leaders' summit which takes place mid-December. They need those two weeks to more or less agree a position.

"And there's no way they'll agree to talk trade or transition with the UK in December, if the money issue hasn't been put to bed beforehand. Forget it," a high-level contact told me.

"Then the Brexit situation becomes dramatic."

Because if the December summit comes and goes, the earliest talks of a future EU-UK relationship could start would be at the next EU leaders summit in March 2018.

Far too late for businesses on both sides of the Channel which are desperate for some clarity.

March 2018 would also be one year after the UK triggered Article 50 - the formal process to leave the EU.

And it's six months from the time the EU wants to formally close Brexit negotiations in order to be able to vote on any agreement reached.

"All I know," a source close to the negotiations told me, "is that I don't know the UK as I thought I did."

"Are they so clouded by sex scandals and losing ministers in Westminster that they don't see: Brexit time is running out?

"They want a deal. Fine. Then now's the time to rip off the Band Aid. To admit to the UK public and the Conservative Party: 'We want to leave and it's time to pay'."

The EU wants a deal, too. Very much so. But the mantra "No deal is better than a bad deal" also rings true this side of the Channel.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-41923765

[Rex Kramer]

And imagine how much that'll cost us.

Well the Brexit talks would never get expanded and we would be in serious risk of crashing out of the EU with no deal as it would take a couple of months until we had a new parliament assuming that we didn't end up with a hung parliament.

It was more the size of the cheque that Arlene would be writing to keep May in power that I was talking about.

[Lex-Man]

And imagine how much that'll cost us.

Well the Brexit talks would never get expanded and we would be in serious risk of crashing out of the EU with no deal as it would take a couple of months until we had a new parliament assuming that we didn't end up with a hung parliament.

It was more the size of the cheque that Arlene would be writing to keep May in power that I was talking about.

Why would Arlene trust her? She's reneged on the first cheque already.

[Hypes]

A motion of no confidence only requires a simple majority so it's quite possible

[Meep]

twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/928552814309249024

The “elitists” says the man who posts a photo of himself in a gold lift.

Yeah, but I don't think that's how they see things. I think when the alt-right use the term "elitist" they are referring to intellectual ability rather than financial wealth. That would explain why they have a fundamental dislike of experts and to tend to see ignorance as a virtue.

I'm of pretty average intelligence but I have humility enough to bow to the opinion of people who are knowledgeable in certain fields, like climate change. If you're driven by arrogance and have no humility then I suppose you just end up resenting everyone who knows more than you do.

[Garth]

twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928710757797253120

Come on now, really

[Garth]

Former Tory minister backs Jeremy Corbyn's demand to end austerity in Autumn budget
Cameron ally Nick Boles breaks ranks by urging the Chancellor to rip up seven years of Tory economic policy

A former Conservative minister has echoed Jeremy Corbyn by calling for a dramatic U-turn to end “austerity” in this month’s Budget.

Nick Boles broke ranks by urging the Chancellor to rip up seven years of Tory economic policy, abandoning the flagship target to wipe out the Budget deficit.

He warned Theresa May and Philip Hammond they would be defeated at the next election if – after seven years – they persisted with trying to balance the books, as public support fades.

And he sided with Labour by arguing that higher investment spending was needed to “generate a return to the economy” and end Britain’s productivity crisis.

“We should stop trying to cut [the deficit] any further,” said Mr Boles, who has written a book on how to boost Tory fortunes.

“We should drop our surplus target because the urgent priority now is to get productivity up and to get real wages up.

“The only way to get productivity up is by increasing investment. I think we now need to make that the focus of government.”

Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, he widened his criticism, adding: “Government is like a bicycle. Unless it is moving forwards, it falls over.

“And, at the moment, the Government does look a bit wobbly. The reason why it is a bit wobbly is because it doesn't have a clear direction and a clear set of policies.”

The intervention is unlikely to be welcomed by Mr Hammond, who is expected to stick to the target of removing the deficit by the mid-2020s on Budget Day on 22 November.

But it delivers a boost to Labour, making it harder for the Conservatives to attack the party’s economic message that austerity is self-defeating and must end.

Mr Boles was a close ally of David Cameron in his drive to modernise the Tory party, serving as minister between 2012 and 2016.

He said austerity was the right policy when the deficit stood at 10 per cent of GDP, but it was “absolutely fine” for the deficit to remain at its current level of around 2.6 per cent indefinitely.

“That is less than the European Union standard. Many governments run a deficit at that sort of level, year in year out.”

On the danger of continuing with austerity, Mr Boles said: “We can't expect to be re-elected if we have no new story to tell and no new direction.”

At the last election, Labour vowed to plough £250bn into infrastructure, arguing: “Our country and its people have been held back by a lack of investment in the backbone of a modern economy”.

It said the party would only aim to eliminate the deficit in day-to-day spending, over five years.

The Conservative manifesto pledged to remove the overall deficit, including investment spending, by 2025 – a decade later than planned – but the target is now widely thought to be unachievable.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 45761.html

[Moggy]

Caroline Lucas

twitter.com/thepileus/status/928736489810391043

[Lex-Man]

Caroline Lucas

twitter.com/thepileus/status/928736489810391043

I would add a smiley, but it's actually sick that this guy is allowed to run as an MP let alone be accepted as an MP.