GRcades Bet Thread 2

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more heat than light
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by more heat than light » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:52 am

:dread:
jawafour wrote:You definitely have the biggest one, mhtl - it's strawberry-floatin' massive!
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Glowy69 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 8:58 am

:datass:
Fabian Delph is a banana split.

Drumstick wrote:I'll go on record in stating that Villa won't finish inside the top 6 this season.

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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Rex Kramer » Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:31 am

Glowy69 wrote:Long time no post lads.

Ive got a proposal for you all. Which i shall reveal later on my lunch. Its a syndicate type thing. So if you're vaguely interested.. :wub:

Is it Villa at 33/1 to get relegated from the Championship? I'm toying with idea of dropping a fiver.
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Glowy69 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:38 am

Dont be a banana split. :x
Fabian Delph is a banana split.

Drumstick wrote:I'll go on record in stating that Villa won't finish inside the top 6 this season.

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blackoutHERO
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by blackoutHERO » Thu Feb 16, 2017 11:33 am

Interested.
eat gooseberry fool glowy
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Glowy69 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:34 pm

So.

Both teams to score.
In both halves.

Ive seen sone utterly disgusting wins on this from a pound bet. ( were talking thousands)My suggestion is we all club together with a £2 quid each week and put it on a bet like this. (A double or treble)

What say you all? I have an empty halifax account i dont use. But im happy for someone else to do it if enough want to do it?
Fabian Delph is a banana split.

Drumstick wrote:I'll go on record in stating that Villa won't finish inside the top 6 this season.

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more heat than light
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by more heat than light » Thu Feb 16, 2017 2:35 pm

Why are we clubbing the money together? Surely the outcome would be the same if we all just made the same bet individually?

For the record, I wouldn't be interested anyway. I don't like BTTS bets at the best of times, I don't think you ever get your moneys worth with them, mainly because hardly anyone stakes cash on the reverse outcome.
jawafour wrote:You definitely have the biggest one, mhtl - it's strawberry-floatin' massive!
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Glowy69 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:57 pm

more heat than light wrote:Why are we clubbing the money together? Surely the outcome would be the same if we all just made the same bet individually?

For the record, I wouldn't be interested anyway. I don't like BTTS bets at the best of times, I don't think you ever get your moneys worth with them, mainly because hardly anyone stakes cash on the reverse outcome.


Club together so we can bet on more games than one. Its complete luck of course but it happens. Hence the minimal commitment of like 2 quid.

Was just an idea is all
Fabian Delph is a banana split.

Drumstick wrote:I'll go on record in stating that Villa won't finish inside the top 6 this season.

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Blue Eyes
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Blue Eyes » Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:00 pm

Glowy69 wrote:So.

Both teams to score.
In both halves.

Ive seen sone utterly disgusting wins on this from a pound bet. ( were talking thousands)My suggestion is we all club together with a £2 quid each week and put it on a bet like this. (A double or treble)

What say you all? I have an empty halifax account i dont use. But im happy for someone else to do it if enough want to do it?

Wouldn't mind getting involved with this!
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Glowy69 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:59 pm

:wub:

Good man.
Fabian Delph is a banana split.

Drumstick wrote:I'll go on record in stating that Villa won't finish inside the top 6 this season.

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PsychicSykes
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by PsychicSykes » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:17 pm

Not a fan personally, sorry glowy.* Seems like a market that'd be difficult to make predictions for and I've read too many horror stories about online syndicates to want to get involved.

What sort of prices are you looking at for that bet anyway? Had a quick glance at oddschecker and couldn't see it being offered atm.

*(Of the idea. You're alright.)
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Glowy69 » Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:28 pm

PsychicSykes wrote:Not a fan personally, sorry glowy.* Seems like a market that'd be difficult to make predictions for and I've read too many horror stories about online syndicates to want to get involved.

What sort of prices are you looking at for that bet anyway? Had a quick glance at oddschecker and couldn't see it being offered atm.

*(Of the idea. You're alright.)


Anything from 18-25/1. A double returns a stupid amount of money. Im not into predictions. I dont think its something that's possible in this market. Which is why i suggested a couple of quid no more. Get 4/5 of them on and pray.

Just a bit of hit and hope. Steve bruce style
Fabian Delph is a banana split.

Drumstick wrote:I'll go on record in stating that Villa won't finish inside the top 6 this season.

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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by PsychicSykes » Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:43 pm

I prefer to try and pretend that I have some reasoning behind what I'm going to lose money on. ;)

If you fancy doing some research, soccerstats have goal pages for leagues that show how often a team scores in both halves. (Bottom of this page for an example)

gl if you go for it
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Igor
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Igor » Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:57 am

Okay, I need some help to determine if I'm being stupid here... B365 do an accumulator bonus where if your treble wins, they give you a 5% bonus on the returns, a 4-fold 10%, 6-fold 20%, 11-fold 70%, and stuff in between. You get the idea.

So for example, you put £100 on an 8-fold with total odds of 5.25, you return £525 + a 40% bonus - total returns £735.

Now, all events in your 8-fold have to happen at different times. You place your accumulator and then lay off each event with an exchange as they happen, laying off exactly the right amount so that the returns from the lay bet cover the original £100 and the liability from each proceeding lay bet. So if bet five of your 8-fold loses, the winning lay bet will return an amount that covers the £100 acca bet and the lost liability from the previous four lay bets.

In an example I've just worked out, the potential profit from the acca + bonus far outweighs the liability losses from each of the lay bets. So long as your bankroll is large enough to cover the required liability, you either lose nothing, or win bigly.

Does this make sense to anyone? Have I overlooked something? I can share my spreadsheet if no one can spot an obvious error.
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more heat than light
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by more heat than light » Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:38 am

Is the bonus fully withdrawable as cash? Or is it one of those that you have to play through three times first? Have a read of the small print.

Otherwise your plan seems pretty sound. B365 do do offers that are exploitable sometimes, see also the £50 in-play thing. Give it a go at a very small stake first to test it out.
jawafour wrote:You definitely have the biggest one, mhtl - it's strawberry-floatin' massive!
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Rhubarb » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:35 am

Igor wrote:Does this make sense to anyone? Have I overlooked something? I can share my spreadsheet if no one can spot an obvious error.


So the first match in the accy you lay enough to cover your entire accy stake. If that lay bet loses your next lay is for stake and liability from previous lay etc etc? Does that actually leave you much profit in the eventuality your accy wins? Given bet365 and exchange prices will likely be different, it might be worth doing a dry run and seeing what the prices in play for laying each leg etc are.

Won't make that much difference probably, but remember to factor in commission on winning lays too.
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Poser » Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:37 am

Glowy69 wrote:Long time no post lads.

Ive got a proposal for you all. Which i shall reveal later on my lunch. Its a syndicate type thing. So if you're vaguely interested.. :wub:


I've still got your details listed as a recipient on my bank account from that one we did years back :lol:
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by PsychicSykes » Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:39 pm

Rhubarb wrote:
Igor wrote:Does this make sense to anyone? Have I overlooked something? I can share my spreadsheet if no one can spot an obvious error.


So the first match in the accy you lay enough to cover your entire accy stake. If that lay bet loses your next lay is for stake and liability from previous lay etc etc? Does that actually leave you much profit in the eventuality your accy wins? Given bet365 and exchange prices will likely be different, it might be worth doing a dry run and seeing what the prices in play for laying each leg etc are.

Won't make that much difference probably, but remember to factor in commission on winning lays too.

Yeah, my first thought was along the lines of it not leaving much profit too. I can see it being a bother covering multiple games going on at the same time too.

Going for Sevilla -1 tonight @ 21/20. Sevilla are a really good side with excellent recent European pedigree, while Leicester are stepping into unknown territory with nearly the same team that lost to Swansea.
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Igor
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by Igor » Fri Feb 24, 2017 3:06 am

PsychicSykes wrote:
Rhubarb wrote:So the first match in the accy you lay enough to cover your entire accy stake. If that lay bet loses your next lay is for stake and liability from previous lay etc etc? Does that actually leave you much profit in the eventuality your accy wins? Given bet365 and exchange prices will likely be different, it might be worth doing a dry run and seeing what the prices in play for laying each leg etc are.

Won't make that much difference probably, but remember to factor in commission on winning lays too.


Yeah, my first thought was along the lines of it not leaving much profit too. I can see it being a bother covering multiple games going on at the same time too.


Exactly, Rhubarb. I've taken commission into account, Smarkets is only 2% anyway. You go for events with back and lay odds that are closely matched - the back odds for Sevilla against Leicester were (IIRC) 1.36 with lay odds of about 1.4.

It's the bonus that B365 offer that makes this worthwhile, without it you'd probably break even minus the exchange commission. I've done a hypothetical 8-fold with total odds of 5.4 and no single pick with odds greater than 1.32. £100 stake and you'd need approximately £390 to cover the required liability. Profit would be approximately £250 if the accumulator comes in and if it doesn't, you haven't lost anything.

Obviously, 8-fold accas aren't gonna come in every week, even with picks that have individually low odds. Thinking it about it though, you'd only need seven to come in because you could adjust your final lay bet to guarantee the profit. And you don't have to do an 8-fold, you could do a 4-fold and accept the lower bonus % but do several at a time with a higher chance you'll hit a win.

And PS, you'd want to have games that are on at different times to allow you to lay the bets off properly. I'm gonna do a low stakes test but I'm confident I've got it worked out. If it does, I'll report back.
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PostRe: GRcades Bet Thread 2
by That's not a growth » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:09 am

Might be more worth it if you wait until half of your acca has won until you start laying it. Trying to make a strategy that works every time is a fool's errand, in my opinion, but this should have the potential to be worth your time.

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