GRcade Predicts: The New Console Generation!

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Garth
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PostGRcade Predicts: The New Console Generation!
by Garth » Wed Jun 12, 2013 12:53 am

Next gen predictions time! With what we know right now (which is by no means a complete picture I'm sure!), how do you think the new console generation will pan out? Which console will enjoy the highest sales? Which region will favour which console? Post your thoughts and I'll move this to the Archive at a later date.

My thoughts:

The Wii U seems to have failed to grab the attention of the masses so far - it's early days yet I suppose, but I don't think the Wii U looks as accessible or as appealing to the casual market as the Wii did. The third party situation is truly dire and it's not as powerful as the other two consoles, so I reckon it's going to be difficult to convince hardcore gamers outside of the usual Nintendo fans to pick one up. Their head start is quickly evaporating, and Wiimania seems so long ago now. I don't think the Wii U is going to have anywhere near the success of the Wii, I think Nintendo is facing third place overall in the new generation in terms of consoles sold, second place in Japan.

Microsoft appear to be going out of their way to create Xbox One policies that make the PS4 look more attractive, and are releasing a console weaker than the PS4 at a more expensive price at around the same time. I think this gen the price advantage and head start were both a big help to the 360, whereas the One is facing much fiercer competition in its first year. Of course, unlike the Wii U, all the big third party titles are going to be there. Kinect 2.0 probably won't have the same pull as Kinect did, I think the novelty has worn off a lot now. I don't see MS making any ground in the already mostly pro-PlayStation continental Europe unless things change, and Japan can probably be written off again too. I could see them losing ground in the US and the UK as well, but they might still take the US if they get a bit more competitive on price. In terms of consoles sold, second place overall.

Sony seems to be doing a lot of things right with the PS4 - it's looking consumer friendly, developer friendly, indies are apparently loving it, it's the most powerful next gen console but not the most expensive, and third party support is there. As things stand now, I think they're going to have a much stronger start than they did with the PS3 and an overall better gen in the US and Europe, and I reckon they'll end up selling the most consoles overall. Maybe even by a large margin...

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Delusibeta
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Delusibeta » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:11 am

We shall see, but I suspect the Xbone to launch like the PS3 (decent day 1 numbers, dies a death six month later prompting price cuts and emergency measures) while the PS4 does relatively brisk trade. The WiiU is getting to the point where it needs the Omega Killer App to avoid selling Vita numbers. Apparently, Amazon US will not guarantee release day delivery for any future PS4 pre-orders from a couple of hours ago.

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Cheeky Devlin
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Cheeky Devlin » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:15 am

If you'd asked me two days ago I'd have said PS4=Xbone>>>>WiiU.

Now...
PS4>>>>Xbone>>WiiU

Microsoft will still do well, but they've lost almost every ounce of goodwill they fostered over the past generation and it's going to cost them. PlayStation has came out saying all the right things, with a compelling price point and as such has never had such unanimous support from the core gamers. There was always an evenish split between Sony and their competitors but the vast majority of the community is behind them now. Just look at the poll in the Xbox One or PS4? topic (XB-12 PS4-110 at the moment) to see that.

Sony need to maintain this momentum through to the launch of the system and beyond to really get the initial install base out there.
Microsoft are going to have to perform some major marketing miracles to overcome the ocean of negativity being poured on them right now. Mainstream media is picking up on this and the average buyer is going to be more aware of it than MS will perhaps want. I fully expect Sony to keep hammering this point in all their marketing in the run up to launch.

So really I think Sony have got all the momentum to have a fantastic launch while Microsoft have a lot of damage control to do.
Two or three years down the line.... I fully expect Sony to have a comfortable lead, but that Microsoft will have overcome it's launch hurdles and begin to close the gap slowly. They'll never quite enjoy the success they did this gen though and Sony will have their biggest market share since the PS2 days.

Nintendo will continue much as they have the past couple of gens. They'll be quietly making money not really bothering the rest of the industry, putting out the high quality titles they always have. They won't have Wii sized install bases or sales and they'll be third, but it'll be quite comfortable for them and they'll be a lot closer than Microsoft would perhaps be comfortable with. Within a year Wii U will be profitable on the hardware alone and 3DS will provide them a lot of cash as well.

TLDR?

Sony wins, Nintendo does alright, Microsoft cries.

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Harry Ola
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Harry Ola » Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:45 am

As things stand, I think the most likely scenario at the moment is similar numbers to the PS2/Gamecube/Xbox generation. It is not like we have to go very far back to see complete Sony domination. PS4 way out in front and with the biggest and most varied selection of games in the long run. This might be OK for Nintendo, but not for MS.

Even if MS changed the price and relented on the DRM stuff and online checks, I still think the balance of the PS3/360 generation will still swing in favour of Sony just on the basis of being the more powerful machine. MS seem to forget that this gen they have had the cheaper machine, generally producing better 3rd party games and introduced Kinect which was much more compelling to the masses than Move. With all of those advantages, they managed to sell about the same number of consoles as Sony. I think MS are in big trouble and they can't fix all of their problems by reversing their ridiculous decisions.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Skarjo » Wed Jun 12, 2013 7:15 am

I think there's a shitstorm brewing for Microsoft. I think early indications will be that it's selling very well, which it will to early adopters and the uninformed. It's the latter group, hoovering up consoles for Chrimbo presents but unaware of all the DRM functions, that will cause a big issue for MS. I reckon in early 2014, after Christmas period, when people would normally be trading in gifts, swapping completed games with friends and what have you, that there will be a serious consumer kickoff from people who were simply caught unawares and didn't realise that so many of the basic features they've taken for granted for 20+ years have just been taken away.

I reckon Christmas will appear deceptively strong for MS, and then next year will bite them in strawberry floating ass.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Drunken_Master » Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:14 am

Wii U is dead. It's a toss up between PS4 and Xbox One. A lot can happen between now and launch and I can see Microsoft backtracking or offering incentives to buy the Xbox One. We've all disregarded the Microsoft's NFL deal in America, that could be massive.

The two dominant players will be PS4 and Xbox One, PS4 will be dominant everywhere but America.

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Wedgie
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Wedgie » Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:41 am

I have to agree. The Wii U is done. Finished. Nintendo would continue supporting it for a few years but it will never reach the numbers like the Wii did. The 3DS will be Nintendo's main console this generation. They need to get their next home console right or they'll be a handheld only company. That is a bad thing as you wouldn't get the same experience as playing Zelda or Metroid Prime on a TV screen.

The XBox One will sell a lot but the PlayStation 4 will dominate this generation. It is true then, that the "third console" curse is in effect but the fault lies with the MS's policies on DRM and constant online connections and they made Sony look like bloody saints.

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Rax
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Rax » Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:52 am

Wii U will be fine, Ninty are gonna do what they do and sell enough to make a healthy profit. MS and Sony will reverse roles, Sony will take an early lead, MS will slowly claw it back.

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TheTurnipKing
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by TheTurnipKing » Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:53 am

Drunken_Master wrote:Wii U is dead. It's a toss up between PS4 and Xbox One. A lot can happen between now and launch and I can see Microsoft backtracking or offering incentives to buy the Xbox One. We've all disregarded the Microsoft's NFL deal in America, that could be massive.

Not quite as dead as you might think. Nintendo have had that head start on production, which could be crazy important in driving down costs. A price cut and a fresh wave of good software in the runup to Christmas might yet be enough to push it into homes ahead of the XBOne and PS4.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Codename 47 » Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:58 am

Unfortunately I can see the Xbox One selling quite well to be honest. Despite Microsoft's arrogance and dismissive attitude to legit concerns I think it'll have a good launch. I think they'll either reduce the price, do an Xbox Live offer where you get the console cheaper or throw in a couple games as an official launch bundle to make the price difference between that the PS4 appear to be not as bad. I think the problems will start when Joe Public buy the thing over Christmas unaware of the restrictions, then i'm expecting something of a backlash against the console which will then force Microsoft to relax things.

This really is Sony's best chance to get back on top. I don't really see the WiiU competing sales wise and Microsoft are seemingly doing their best to make the PS4 the console people should go for. Launching at a cheaper price..I really can't see why this console shouldn't sell well. Unless Microsoft go really crazy and start moneyhatting to the extreme then the PS4 should do well. They just need to do a good job marketing wise (especially launching close to the Xbox) because that is one area Microsoft can be good at.

As for Nintendo, they somehow need to get third parties back on side I think if they want to get PS4 and Xbox One numbers. They need to be getting games like Battlefield 4, Fifa, Madden, GTA and just more of the big games that people are hyped about during E3 (and beyond) because as it stands, people that want stuff like those games have to buy an Xbox or PS4.

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Drunken_Master
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Drunken_Master » Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:02 am

TheTurnipKing wrote:
Drunken_Master wrote:Wii U is dead. It's a toss up between PS4 and Xbox One. A lot can happen between now and launch and I can see Microsoft backtracking or offering incentives to buy the Xbox One. We've all disregarded the Microsoft's NFL deal in America, that could be massive.

Not quite as dead as you might think. Nintendo have had that head start, which could be crazy important in driving down costs. A price cut and a fresh wave of good software in the runup to Christmas might yet be enough to push it into homes ahead of the XBOne and PS4.



The way I see it is, all the die hard Nintendo fans who buy all their games would have probably picked up a Wii U by now. 3rd parties don't seem to be interested and neither does the general public.

Apart from Nintendo's exclusives and the novelty controller, why would anyone buy a Wii U over a 360/PS3? When the latter consoles have about the same power are significantly cheaper and have a much more diverse set of games?

I was disappointed with Nintendo's conference, they should have been pushing the unique capabilities of the tablet. Something which differentiates them from all the others. They didn't.

One thing is for sure, the Wii U needs a massive official price cut. yesterday.

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Rik
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Rik » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:13 am

Sony to win Japan and Europe by a bigger margin than this gen.

Xbox One will be neck and neck with PS4 in the US

Wii U to fail everywhere and be replaced 2015/2016 by a handheld that hooks up to your TV.

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Steve
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Steve » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:19 am

Despite all the criticism I still expect the Xbox One to do very well. However, if Sony can keep riding this wave then we could see the PS4 dominate in all territories. They just need to get more exclusives and have a large enough inventory of PS4's to meet the demand at launch.

As for the Wii U, who cares? It was dead on arrival. A complete fail.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Psychic » Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:30 am

I think Microsoft will do worse than a lot of people expect. I've seen the argument prior to E3 that it was just a few people on message boards complaining, but the rage at the Xbone's policies has spread, not only in terms of where people are talking about it (Facebook, Twitter, BBC News) but it seems to be have an amount of vitriol aimed at it that seems to be unprecedented. People are more connected technology wise than ever (Especially kids) and it seems impossible that the majority of people who enjoy playing video-games will go between now and the launch without stumbling across at least one article that points out what Microsoft have done and why this is such a bad thing.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Peter Crisp » Wed Jun 12, 2013 12:25 pm

Rik wrote:Sony to win Japan and Europe by a bigger margin than this gen.

Xbox One will be neck and neck with PS4 in the US

Wii U to fail everywhere and be replaced 2015/2016 by a handheld that hooks up to your TV.


It would be interesting from a purely technical view to see how much grunt they can pack into something the size of a handheld as surely if it's a replacement for the Wii U it will need to be significantly more powerful or have exactly the same problem it has.

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Christopher
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Christopher » Wed Jun 12, 2013 12:26 pm

XBONE >>> PS4 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Wii U :(

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Alpha eX
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Alpha eX » Wed Jun 12, 2013 12:26 pm

Wii U is the secondary console, I'd put it next to Xbox and PS for games and not graphical power.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by 1cmanny1 » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:02 pm

Xbone will be neck and neck, or even beat Sony in America and (maybe) the UK. But if 3rd party games start to look better on the PS4, and Sony continues to release amazing 1st party titles, that will change rather quickly.

Even the shooters will want a console that delivers better performance, over DLC eventually.

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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Death's Head » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:32 pm

Given that the Wii U is going to be half the price of the XBO and PS4, I wouldn't rule it out. The new consoles will cause a buzz but cash strapped parents aren't going to be able to afford the asking price, so I expect a few kids will be getting a Wii U for Christmas rather than a PS4 or XBO.

As for the XBO, I don't expect MS to backtrack on their policies - the console has been designed for them to have control. I expect they will just discount it to get it into everyone's home (either slashing prices or a bundle of some sort).

Yes?
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Drunken_Master
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PostRe: How do you think the new console gen will pan out?
by Drunken_Master » Wed Jun 12, 2013 1:35 pm

Death's Head wrote:Given that the Wii U is going to be half the price of the XBO and PS4, I wouldn't rule it out. The new consoles will cause a buzz but cash strapped parents aren't going to be able to afford the asking price, so I expect a few kids will be getting a Wii U for Christmas rather than a PS4 or XBO.

As for the XBO, I don't expect MS to backtrack on their policies - the console has been designed for them to have control. I expect they will just discount it to get it into everyone's home (either slashing prices or a bundle of some sort).


And the PS3 and 360 will cost less than a Wii U. Which begs the question, why would kids want one?

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