Is it time to stop expecting a Switch 2?

"Industry insiders" keep forecasting the imminent announcement of a successor console to the Switch, but Nintendo have never said that they're planning to move on from the Switch anytime soon.

Considering the comparatively disappointing availability of the other major players' "current-gen"* consoles, the global situation and supply issues relating to key components, and the fact that the Switch (and its software) is still selling very well, is it finally time to accept that Nintendo aren't intending on announcing a successor for at least several years?

Mario Kart 8 isn't even a new game on the Switch yet it continually sells gangbusters :lol:

As I've posted in the General Pokémon Thread, Nintendo seem to have skipped the 'traditional' generational cycle for that particular franchise, and there's a new Zelda on the way. The Mario movie is out next year, which suggests some kind of tie-in is likely - and while it might be an ideal opportunity to launch a new console if things were different, actually getting a company to build the hardware might be a problem!

Nintendo have never been one to walk away from an easy and profitable route. With a massive existing userbase, Nintendo have a huge potential customer base to sell any new games to - and that base continues to grow as they continue to sell consoles. In the current climate, I can't see them foregoing that, to... compete with themselves?

*a term I use loosely as I am aware the hardware specs and performance are not comparable to NSW

Lines up with my sources.

I fully expect Prime 4 to be a cross-platform launch with the Switch's successor. Likely Mario Odyssey sequel held back till then also.

Given the difficulties Sony and Microsoft have had with supply of their latest consoles and the lack of top titles produced, I don't see Nintendo releasing their next console until 2025. That said, recently the Switch has dropped down to second and sometimes third in the monthly sales figures, if anything might prompt Nintendo to do something it could be that.

I think they need a new console before end of 2024 otherwise they will lose a lot more momentum. We have reached a point where you can see the system is struggling to run the latest games and this will get worse as third parties adopt the next gen consoles more.

Just going by year of release:

NES -> SNES = 7 years
SNES -> N64 = 6 years
N64 -> GC = 5 years
GC -> Wii = 5 years
Wii -> WiiU = 6 years
WiiU -> Switch = 5 years

GB -> GBC = 9 years
GBC -> GBA = 3 years
GBA -> DS = 3 years
DS -> 3DS = 7 years
3DS -> Switch = 6 years

Switch -> Now = 5 years

And for comparison:

PS1 -> PS2 = 6 years
PS2 -> PS3 = 6 years
PS3 -> PS4 = 7 years
PS4 -> PS5 = 7 years

So I don't think it's yet overdue. Given current reasons to believe the generation will be longer than usual, that puts us past 2025.

OrangeRKN wrote:Just going by year of release:

NES -> SNES = 7 years
SNES -> N64 = 6 years
N64 -> GC = 5 years
GC -> Wii = 5 years
Wii -> WiiU = 6 years
WiiU -> Switch = 5 years

GB -> GBC = 9 years
GBC -> GBA = 3 years
GBA -> DS = 3 years
DS -> 3DS = 7 years
3DS -> Switch = 6 years

Switch -> Now = 5 years

And for comparison:

PS1 -> PS2 = 6 years
PS2 -> PS3 = 6 years
PS3 -> PS4 = 7 years
PS4 -> PS5 = 7 years

So I don't think it's yet overdue. Given current reasons to believe the generation will be longer than usual, that puts us past 2025.

So in general 6-7 years for the most successful, 5 years for the less successful

I think 2024 is the absolute earliest we'll see any kind of official confirmation/announcement relating to a Switch 2.

Surely they have to bring out a new machine at some point?
Games built for new systems just aren't going to work with hardware that outdated?

I’m still expecting something to launch alongside the new Zelda next year.

Only 5 years for the N64!?

I didn't get one at launch (I did get a launch GC) and I'm shocked that period of time was only 5 years.

Roonmastor wrote:Only 5 years for the N64!?

I didn't get one at launch (I did get a launch GC) and I'm shocked that period of time was only 5 years.

In the UK the N64 was apparently released March 97 and the GC May 2002, so 5 years 2 months

Peter Crisp wrote:Games built for new systems just aren't going to work with hardware that outdated?

That's been the case for the entire life of the Switch though, hasn't it?

Roonmastor wrote:Only 5 years for the N64!?

I didn't get one at launch (I did get a launch GC) and I'm shocked that period of time was only 5 years.

N64 launch was delayed, and graphics standards moved very fast by then.

I think Nintendo want the Switch to be supported for between 7-10 years, so that puts a successor releasing at the earliest in 2024, I don’t often feel that a console needs an upgrade but the Switch kind of does, some games just don’t look as good or perform as well as they should due to it (some areas of Xenoblade Chronicles 3 can be a bit slow for example), I imagine whatever mobile SoC they end up using, it’ll be far superior to the custom Tegra X1 SoC the Switch is running.

YouTube

The trailer footage from Tears of the Kingdom has to be running on something, otherwise its all pre-rendered. If Digital Foundry's analysis says it looks too technical for the existing hardware, there's your answer. Therefore I'd expect Nintendo to announce a successor between January and March of 2023.

Tomous wrote:
OrangeRKN wrote:Just going by year of release:

NES -> SNES = 7 years
SNES -> N64 = 6 years
N64 -> GC = 5 years
GC -> Wii = 5 years
Wii -> WiiU = 6 years
WiiU -> Switch = 5 years

GB -> GBC = 9 years
GBC -> GBA = 3 years
GBA -> DS = 3 years
DS -> 3DS = 7 years
3DS -> Switch = 6 years

Switch -> Now = 5 years

And for comparison:

PS1 -> PS2 = 6 years
PS2 -> PS3 = 6 years
PS3 -> PS4 = 7 years
PS4 -> PS5 = 7 years

So I don't think it's yet overdue. Given current reasons to believe the generation will be longer than usual, that puts us past 2025.

So in general 6-7 years for the most successful, 5 years for the less successful

PS4 still going, just running concurrently alongside PS5

Yubel wrote:The trailer footage from Tears of the Kingdom has to be running on something, otherwise its all pre-rendered. If Digital Foundry's analysis says it looks too technical for the existing hardware, there's your answer. Therefore I'd expect Nintendo to announce a successor between January and March of 2023.

What little they showed of Pikmin 4 looked rather nice too.

People were saying that about Mario+Rabbids 2 last year and look what happened there :slol:

ITSMILNER wrote:People were saying that about Mario+Rabbids 2 last year and look what happened there

To be fair, Mario x Rabbids doesn't look as good as it did in those shots so most likely a case of bullshots from Ubisoft, something Nintendo doesn't really do.

Or they had to scale it back because the Switch 2 got delayed from 2022 to launch with Zelda :shifty:

2026 announcement for 2027 release

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