Is the UK 'full'?

Moggy wrote:

Bigerich wrote:

VeryNiceGuy wrote:Embrace every single one of them. Migrants are a net gain for the economy.

You have a source for this? I know that in Norway the reverse is true, by a pretty substantial margin.

I love that you ask somebody for a source and then post a completely unsubstantiated claim.

Veryniceguy was obviously talking about the British economy and it's a little unfair to expect him to know the Norwegian situation. I presume you will be able to give us more information on the positive/negative effects of migration on the Norwegian economy?

I am now back home from a place with little Internet (I left just after I posted my message, in fact).

You will be delighted to know that this article is even newer than the one I had read and would have posted, so the information is even more up to date.

https://www.ssb.no/en/offentlig-sektor/artikler-og-publikasjoner/the-effects-of-more-immigrants-on-public-finances

Depending on labour market participation, high levels of immigration may temporarily ease the pressure on the public finances caused by population aging. But the impact is not likely to be significant in the long run. Immigrants from Asia and Africa are more dependent than other groups on government welfare schemes. Since immigrants have children, the impacts of increased immigration on public finances will never fade away. Consequently, these effects should not be confused with how the average immigrant alone affects public finances during his life time.

You could read the entire thing if you like, or browse the site for more articles and statistics on immigration.

There are two tl;drs:
Immigration is not a net gain for the Norwegian economy. It is at the start if they get a job quickly (or have one already), but it will stop as soon as they get children.

Karl wrote:

Bigerich wrote:Really?

I would never have guessed.

An anti-austerity party is now more or less the sole representative of Scotland at Parliament. The Assemblies of both Scotland and Wales are run or part-run by anti-austerity parties. So it's hardly a politically untenable opinion; I was simply saying I don't know enough about the details to put together a budgeted plan to satisfy right-wing keyboard warriors on an internet forum. If you yourself have the skills to write a party manifesto then you should probably join whatever Norway's equivalent of UKIP is - at least it would provide a different vent than here for your constant anti-immigration diatribe.


@Irene: Don't worry. Bigerich's post history includes great and balanced discourse like "I don't think Jeremy Clarkson should be sacked" and "The Green Party are all imbeciles" so I'm not going to take it personally.

Seriously?

FYI, I am a moderate supporter of the EU. Certainly I think it is better to be a member of that than of the EEA.
There is no UKIP equivalent here, nor would I vote for it if it did exist.

And constant? I haven't even posted since March. And I pretty sure I posted that about Clarkson before I knew what exactly he had done. I expected hoped for the rumours to be exaggerated, but this time they were not.

I know very well that there have been many anti-austerity parties, and in very many countries. I know, in fact, who John Maynard Keynes is. I have studied some of his theories. I know also that economics has moved beyond parts of his teachings, and that blindly following the idea that increasing public spending to combat a poor national economy has its own risks.

Perhaps you have heard of stagflation?

Anti-austerity is not new. It has its merits also, but it is not the answer to everything. You cannot combat overspending by spending even more. Try asking the Greeks how that worked out for them. And I hope you enjoy a good bank bailout, that's a good Keynesian thing to do.

And the best bit: Increasing consumption to combat an economic downturn is usually not a very Green thing to do. The Green thing to do is to decrease consumption, even if it causes a recession.

I guess my point is this: It's not so simple as you make it out to be.

No, we're not "full", but I'd be interest to know what the population is like vs, say, the housing supply.

Bigerich wrote:Anti-austerity is not new. It has its merits also, but it is not the answer to everything. You cannot combat overspending by spending even more. Try asking the Greeks how that worked out for them. And I hope you enjoy a good bank bailout, that's a good Keynesian thing to do.

We are not Greece though, not even close to it. If we followed anti-austerity policies we would still be far from it too. People need to start thinking of Greece as the exception rather than the rule.

TheTurnipKing wrote:No, we're not "full", but I'd be interest to know what the population is like vs, say, the housing supply.

This link looks pretty old, but suggests that there are around 25 million homes in the UK. The population is around about 65 million, meaning approx 2.6 people per home.

Of course it doesn't actually work like that as a "home" could mean a 1 bed studio flat or a 300 bed mansion, but it does show that the problems with house prices/supply isn't just related to the size of our population.

Oh yeah, I have no doubt. There are numerous variables, like "empty" properties.

But the base size of the population, and the number of houses to support them, vs our ability to increase supply do create a very crude assessment and paint a very interesting picture by themselves.

To a casual observer, It would seem that in many cases, immigrants are being funnelled into areas that already feel overcrowded and are struggling with the expansion of population.

Which is great if you own property, or are in property development, I suppose.

TheTurnipKing wrote:Which is great if you own property, or are in property development, I suppose.

I think that is the biggest issue. Governments (Labour or Tory) don't want to risk home owners house prices going down and developers don't want to build hundreds of thousands of homes and then risk prices dropping.

I am a home owner but I think house prices have risen to a stupid level. It is hard for me to wish for a crash though as it is in my interest for prices to keep rising.