jawa asks... how far down the road are we with this console generation?

UHD/4K drives are really cheap to manufacture so no need to Abandon them yet.

Jenuall wrote:

NickSCFC wrote:

Moggy wrote:

NickSCFC wrote:I'm almost certain that PS5 and "Xbox Two" will have a UHD Blu-ray SKU option

So am I.

I bet the generation after won’t though.

I still don't think poorer countries will have fast, reliable broadband come 2028.

This.

I live in a decent sized town in the UK (Cheltenham) and the best broadband I can get is about 3Mbps - downloading a current gen game (averaging say 30GB, although some are getting MUCH bigger now) takes me multiple days of constant downloading.

We are years away from a digital only console being viable in the "developed" world, let alone globally. The infrastructure is just not improving with enough speed - even if game sizes stayed constant which they absolutely will not.

I live in Cheltenham and was getting about the same for a while with Sky. Switched to Virgin and it's around 50mbps on average Wi-Fi for the PC, dropping during peak times. Hitting up to 113mbps on average hard wired with the PS4 and X1.

That's on Virgin's 200mb package. Still not as fast as I would like, or it as it should be, but much better.

Gemini73 wrote:

Jenuall wrote:

NickSCFC wrote:

Moggy wrote:

NickSCFC wrote:I'm almost certain that PS5 and "Xbox Two" will have a UHD Blu-ray SKU option

So am I.

I bet the generation after won’t though.

I still don't think poorer countries will have fast, reliable broadband come 2028.

This.

I live in a decent sized town in the UK (Cheltenham) and the best broadband I can get is about 3Mbps - downloading a current gen game (averaging say 30GB, although some are getting MUCH bigger now) takes me multiple days of constant downloading.

We are years away from a digital only console being viable in the "developed" world, let alone globally. The infrastructure is just not improving with enough speed - even if game sizes stayed constant which they absolutely will not.

I live in Cheltenham and was getting about the same for a while with Sky. Switched to Virgin and it's around 50mbps on average Wi-Fi for the PC, dropping during peak times. Hitting up to 113mbps on average hard wired with the PS4 and X1.

That's on Virgin's 200mb package. Still not as fast as I would like, or it as it should be, but much better.

Yeah, sadly we are in an area that's not fibre enabled and this is the best we can get. It is a source of continued frustration!

Most annoying part is that it's a fairly new development, our estate was built 2007 - 2010 so you'd think that someone would have had the foresight to put the right cabling down at the time!

I am not sure what is meant by poorer countries, but I don’t think Microsoft and Sony are taking into account the broadband structure in the Central African Republic (Pointless) when they are thinking about what consoles they might release in 10 years time.

I don’t expect the next gen to be download only, but it is not a ridiculous idea to think that the next next gen will be download only. Things move very quickly, in 1997 the vast majority of people didn’t have the internet at all and those that did were on 56k connections. By 2007 broadband was mainstream. Things have moved slower in the following 10 years, but with the advent of 5G mobile internet, fibre rollout etc, it is not a crazy idea to think superfast connections are coming over the next 10 years.

I think that if Sony choose to go download only for the next generation then they are in a strong enough position to make it stick. We are already at a point where a broadband connection is essentially mandatory for using home consoles and I'm sure Sony and Microsoft are well aware of just how fast their customers connections are. If the need for enough connections to be above the 50meg mark means holding back on PS5 or the next Xbox until 2021 then they'll be willing to wait that little bit longer.

Moggy wrote:I am not sure what is meant by poorer countries, but I don’t think Microsoft and Sony are taking into account the broadband structure in the Central African Republic (Pointless) when they are thinking about what consoles they might release in 10 years time.

I don’t expect the next gen to be download only, but it is not a ridiculous idea to think that the next next gen will be download only. Things move very quickly, in 1997 the vast majority of people didn’t have the internet at all and those that did were on 56k connections. By 2007 broadband was mainstream. Things have moved slower in the following 10 years, but with the advent of 5G mobile internet, fibre rollout etc, it is not a crazy idea to think superfast connections are coming over the next 10 years.

I think part of the problem is that game sizes seem to be continuing to grow at a faster rate than average internet speeds are. AAA games today are anything from 30GB to 100GB, up from 5-10GB ten years ago. Who knows how big they'll be in another ten years? If the next gen sees games regularly hitting 200GB I'll be looking at a week just to download a game, so much for plug and play!

Also where broadband speeds are concerned there is an increasing gap being introduced - yes lots more people now have access to 50+Mbps services, but there are still many stuck on speeds that are in single figures. I know people in major towns and cities in the UK who are lucky to get 1Mbps and when they look into it there are no plans to offer them anything better. This isn't a small problem - millions of people, potential customers for future consoles, are stuck on shite internet with no hope of change. In the last ten years I have lived in 4 different homes - two in Cardiff and two in Cheltenham, none of those places have given me access to internet with a speed greater than 8Mbps - this wasn't that I chose not to pay for a faster service, there simply wasn't one available. The speed I get now is actually slower than it was when I moved in to my house 7 years ago!

The only way I can see consoles managing to go digital only is if someone sits down and properly sorts out a new mechanism for how data is distributed and required by games - don't hold players back from starting a game just because the content for the last level hasn't been downloaded yet!

Jenuall wrote:

Moggy wrote:I am not sure what is meant by poorer countries, but I don’t think Microsoft and Sony are taking into account the broadband structure in the Central African Republic (Pointless) when they are thinking about what consoles they might release in 10 years time.

I don’t expect the next gen to be download only, but it is not a ridiculous idea to think that the next next gen will be download only. Things move very quickly, in 1997 the vast majority of people didn’t have the internet at all and those that did were on 56k connections. By 2007 broadband was mainstream. Things have moved slower in the following 10 years, but with the advent of 5G mobile internet, fibre rollout etc, it is not a crazy idea to think superfast connections are coming over the next 10 years.

I think part of the problem is that game sizes seem to be continuing to grow at a faster rate than average internet speeds are. AAA games today are anything from 30GB to 100GB, up from 5-10GB ten years ago. Who knows how big they'll be in another ten years? If the next gen sees games regularly hitting 200GB I'll be looking at a week just to download a game, so much for plug and play!

Also where broadband speeds are concerned there is an increasing gap being introduced - yes lots more people now have access to 50+Mbps services, but there are still many stuck on speeds that are in single figures. I know people in major towns and cities in the UK who are lucky to get 1Mbps and when they look into it there are no plans to offer them anything better. This isn't a small problem - millions of people, potential customers for future consoles, are stuck on shite internet with no hope of change. In the last ten years I have lived in 4 different homes - two in Cardiff and two in Cheltenham, none of those places have given me access to internet with a speed greater than 8Mbps - this wasn't that I chose not to pay for a faster service, there simply wasn't one available. The speed I get now is actually slower than it was when I moved in to my house 7 years ago!

The only way I can see consoles managing to go digital only is if someone sits down and properly sorts out a new mechanism for how data is distributed and required by games - don't hold players back from starting a game just because the content for the last level hasn't been downloaded yet!

You are looking at potential game sizes in the future while comparing them to your broadband speed now.

It’s absolutely true that broadband speeds are not good enough at the moment (although PC gamers seem to cope).

But I fully expect broadband speeds to improve massively over the next 10 years.

That’s why I predict download only consoles for 2027 (or whenever after that new consoles are released). Broadband will be vastly improved on where we are now and the rewards for the console manufacturers are just too great for them to resist.

I tend to agree that we’re not too far away from a “download only” path for console gaming. The platform holders absolutely dream of such a scenario - dat monopolised Store front ( ) - and I suspect we’re nearing the point where download income is making up for reduced physical income.

Then again, looking further ahead, the rise of “cloud” computing is likely to eliminate the need for large download sizes and expensive consoles... although this situation could be a number of years off.

As Jenuall is saying, its way too early to be talking about download only consoles, the infrastructure really isnt there yet. Its getting there but were still 5-10 years away from enough people having a fast enough internet connection to handle a download only console. I can get a peak of 6 meg where I live and I will remain at that speed until probably 2023. I realise Im in the minority with my situation but not everyone has super fast broadband yet and until 90+% of people do consoles will keep offering physical releases for the majority of games.

However a download only machine will herald the return of the cheap as chips console. As Photek mentioned the performance gains just arent there anymore so prices arent falling like they used to, therefore new consoles will be very expensive if they want to offer the kinds of leaps that people expect from next gen machines. Locking people in to you digital marketplace and only ever being able to purchae content at a price you set will help to subside the cost of these machines. That will last for about 7-10 years before an EU ruling comes along and means that consoles will have to offer 3rd party marketplaces to allow competition for game prices within the platforms.

Expensive times ahead.

I do think they may offer a download only version of next gen consoles.

Rax wrote:As Jenuall is saying, its way too early to be talking about download only consoles, the infrastructure really isnt there yet. Its getting there but were still 5-10 years away from enough people having a fast enough internet connection to handle a download only console.

So you agree with me then?

Peter Crisp wrote:I do think they may offer a download only version of next gen consoles.

I could see this, maybe something there the drive is changable for an extra HDD or something so you can have the option.

I'm wondering if they would go to the bother of having an actual smaller machine with the internals rearranged? The power supply wouldn't need to be as large and they could even have a bit more space for cooling even with a reduction in size.
It would be interesting to see if they could get any next gen machines down to the size of something like the Wii.

Moggy wrote:

Rax wrote:As Jenuall is saying, its way too early to be talking about download only consoles, the infrastructure really isnt there yet. Its getting there but were still 5-10 years away from enough people having a fast enough internet connection to handle a download only console.

So you agree with me then?

Apparently. It takes me way too long to write posts.

Moggy wrote:

Jenuall wrote:

Moggy wrote:I am not sure what is meant by poorer countries, but I don’t think Microsoft and Sony are taking into account the broadband structure in the Central African Republic (Pointless) when they are thinking about what consoles they might release in 10 years time.

I don’t expect the next gen to be download only, but it is not a ridiculous idea to think that the next next gen will be download only. Things move very quickly, in 1997 the vast majority of people didn’t have the internet at all and those that did were on 56k connections. By 2007 broadband was mainstream. Things have moved slower in the following 10 years, but with the advent of 5G mobile internet, fibre rollout etc, it is not a crazy idea to think superfast connections are coming over the next 10 years.

I think part of the problem is that game sizes seem to be continuing to grow at a faster rate than average internet speeds are. AAA games today are anything from 30GB to 100GB, up from 5-10GB ten years ago. Who knows how big they'll be in another ten years? If the next gen sees games regularly hitting 200GB I'll be looking at a week just to download a game, so much for plug and play!

Also where broadband speeds are concerned there is an increasing gap being introduced - yes lots more people now have access to 50+Mbps services, but there are still many stuck on speeds that are in single figures. I know people in major towns and cities in the UK who are lucky to get 1Mbps and when they look into it there are no plans to offer them anything better. This isn't a small problem - millions of people, potential customers for future consoles, are stuck on shite internet with no hope of change. In the last ten years I have lived in 4 different homes - two in Cardiff and two in Cheltenham, none of those places have given me access to internet with a speed greater than 8Mbps - this wasn't that I chose not to pay for a faster service, there simply wasn't one available. The speed I get now is actually slower than it was when I moved in to my house 7 years ago!

The only way I can see consoles managing to go digital only is if someone sits down and properly sorts out a new mechanism for how data is distributed and required by games - don't hold players back from starting a game just because the content for the last level hasn't been downloaded yet!

You are looking at potential game sizes in the future while comparing them to your broadband speed now.

It’s absolutely true that broadband speeds are not good enough at the moment (although PC gamers seem to cope).

But I fully expect broadband speeds to improve massively over the next 10 years.

That’s why I predict download only consoles for 2027 (or whenever after that new consoles are released). Broadband will be vastly improved on where we are now and the rewards for the console manufacturers are just too great for them to resist.

Well as I say my personal experience is that my download speed today is half what it was 10 years ago, whilst game download sizes have increased 5 to 10 times over that same period. I know plenty others who would give accounts of similar stagnation of their broadband access.

Obviously broadband speed improving and download size increasing are both pretty much guaranteed over the next 10 years - in my view the rate of average increase in the former will not be enough to meet the demand of the latter to a sufficient degree to support a truly download only future in that time frame.

Just got a flyer in the door offering 1GB broadband.

Photek wrote:Just got a flyer in the door offering 1GB broadband.

Only 1GB? You’ll be hitting your limit with the tiniest of modern day patches.

I can never tell when you’re joking or not anymore.

I did read (somewhere) that Virgin's up and down cable BB service, even the 200mb package, is due to over subscription in certain areas. Makes sense as the whole of our neighborhood only has the option of Virgin for fibre optic cable BB. Sky, Talk Talk, BT etc don't offer anything other than standard phone line connections.

Photek wrote:I can never tell when you’re joking or not anymore.