Afghanistan

What will become of that country in the long term? Obviously nobody here can truly answer that question since nobody really knows, but based on the information we do have, how do you see things going?

For example, if all Western forces pulled out today, would the country decent back into al qaeda/Taliban madness? I believe it'd probably be even worse then before the US led invasion occurred. Many reasons for that, one of which is that Pakistan as a whole is more sympathetic towards the Taliban/al qaeda then they were 10 years ago. If this happened and no other country intervened any longer in the affairs of Afghanistan/Pakistan, how long do you reckon they'd remain Talibanized/al qaedaed? I can't imagine they'd remain that way forever, especially if there were no long er any "enemy" threatening their boarders. A few decades? Then what? Would they make any attempt to evolve towards being a modern nation or what?

First thing they'll do is change their name to Afghanistan I think.

H's are cool.

You think u.s gives two gooseberry fool what happens to Afghanistan civilians?

As long as they can protect the opium , and the gas pipes all is well .

Afghanistan was 100% better off with the taliban then the u.s led invasion.

Fact

Paging Dblock to the.....too late.

Lagamorph wrote:First thing they'll do is change their name to Afghanistan I think.

H's are cool.

Yeah, I've heard the Afghans rely quite heavily on their H.

Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

However, I also believe that as soon as Western forces pulled out, someone else would swoop in almost immediately. After all, it's pretty much been that way for 200 years.

Somebody Else's Problem wrote:Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

However, I also believe that as soon as Western forces pulled out, someone else would swoop in almost immediately. After all, it's pretty much been that way for 200 years.

Pretty much this.

Obviously I cannot see the future, but I would be amazed if the place didn’t turn into a complete blood bath soon after we leave. Civil war will rage and then somebody else (or us again) will invade to keep the peace. And the cycle will continue.

Somebody Else's Problem wrote:Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

This pretty much sounds like a current description.

The only thing that would change is how much influence they'd have.

Dblock wrote:You think u.s gives two gooseberry fool what happens to Afghanistan civilians?

As long as they can protect the opium , and the gas pipes all is well .

Afghanistan was 100% better off with the taliban then the u.s led invasion.

Fact

Given that you seem to think the US led invasion puts the Afghans at 0% satisfaction, 100% better off than that under Taliban rule is surely still... 0%.

Moggy wrote:

Somebody Else's Problem wrote:Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

However, I also believe that as soon as Western forces pulled out, someone else would swoop in almost immediately. After all, it's pretty much been that way for 200 years.

Pretty much this.

Obviously I cannot see the future, but I would be amazed if the place didn’t turn into a complete blood bath soon after we leave. Civil war will rage and then somebody else (or us again) will invade to keep the peace. And the cycle will continue.

War is happening in Afghanistan now! Just because you hear on tv once in Blue moon doesn't mean the killing/fighting has stopped. U.S never invaded to keep " peace " they invaded for financial reasons and " Osama bin laden " even though reports clearly said before hand the guy was long gone from afghanistan. The cycle will continue and pass hands as long as they can gain some moonaaay.

Peace, please . The only thing that u.s led invasion brought is war.

When I was young, I couldn't figure out why a country would name itself after a biscuit.

Afghanistan was better off under the communists.

Dblock wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Somebody Else's Problem wrote:Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

However, I also believe that as soon as Western forces pulled out, someone else would swoop in almost immediately. After all, it's pretty much been that way for 200 years.

Pretty much this.

Obviously I cannot see the future, but I would be amazed if the place didn’t turn into a complete blood bath soon after we leave. Civil war will rage and then somebody else (or us again) will invade to keep the peace. And the cycle will continue.

War is happening in Afghanistan now! Just because you hear on tv once in Blue moon doesn't mean the killing/fighting has stopped. U.S never invaded to keep " peace " they invaded for financial reasons and " Osama bin laden " even though reports clearly said before hand the guy was long gone from afghanistan. The cycle will continue and pass hands as long as they can gain some moonaaay.

Peace, please . The only thing that u.s led invasion brought is war.

Blah blah blah, conspiracy theory, blah blah blah.

I am aware there is not peace there at the moment. My prediction was that when the US/UK pull out it will get even worse for the people there. And then somebody (probably the US/UK) will re-invade to keep the peace/root out terrorists.

As far as I can see, we have three basic choices.

1. Try to establish a democratic government, which will collapse the moment the US withdraws and leaves the Taliban in control and unrestrained.

2. Try to establish a puppet dictatorship, which is sufficiently ruthless coud theoretically resist the taliban if given enough US support in terms of arms and such. The Taliban would eventually incorporate themselves into the dictatorship itself, but at least then they would be on a leash. This is probably the optimal solution. Yes, in a few generations people will probably be going on about how badly America behaved and laying all the crimes comitted by the regime on the door of the Whitehouse, but strawberry float those hippies; they don't understand how the world works.

3. Just stay there indefinitely. This is probably the worst option and would only be made if you were smart enough not to attempt option 1 but were too morally squeamish to attempt option 2.

Are any of these options better than not invading at all in the first place? Lol, no.

Moggy wrote:

Dblock wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Somebody Else's Problem wrote:Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

However, I also believe that as soon as Western forces pulled out, someone else would swoop in almost immediately. After all, it's pretty much been that way for 200 years.

Pretty much this.

Obviously I cannot see the future, but I would be amazed if the place didn’t turn into a complete blood bath soon after we leave. Civil war will rage and then somebody else (or us again) will invade to keep the peace. And the cycle will continue.

War is happening in Afghanistan now! Just because you hear on tv once in Blue moon doesn't mean the killing/fighting has stopped. U.S never invaded to keep " peace " they invaded for financial reasons and " Osama bin laden " even though reports clearly said before hand the guy was long gone from afghanistan. The cycle will continue and pass hands as long as they can gain some moonaaay.

Peace, please . The only thing that u.s led invasion brought is war.

Blah blah blah, conspiracy theory, blah blah blah.

I am aware there is not peace there at the moment. My prediction was that when the US/UK pull out it will get even worse for the people there. And then somebody (probably the US/UK) will re-invade to keep the peace/root out terrorists.

What conspiracy theory ?

You said "again" which implies first time they invaded to bring peace.

GTFO with your conspiracy gooseberry fool.

4.

Dblock wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Dblock wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Somebody Else's Problem wrote:Afghanistan has traditionally been very tribal, with little to no centralised governance. If the western forces pulled out today, I believe the Afghan people would soon revert back to that, with the Taliban having influence over some tribes, and having no influence at all over others.

However, I also believe that as soon as Western forces pulled out, someone else would swoop in almost immediately. After all, it's pretty much been that way for 200 years.

Pretty much this.

Obviously I cannot see the future, but I would be amazed if the place didn’t turn into a complete blood bath soon after we leave. Civil war will rage and then somebody else (or us again) will invade to keep the peace. And the cycle will continue.

War is happening in Afghanistan now! Just because you hear on tv once in Blue moon doesn't mean the killing/fighting has stopped. U.S never invaded to keep " peace " they invaded for financial reasons and " Osama bin laden " even though reports clearly said before hand the guy was long gone from afghanistan. The cycle will continue and pass hands as long as they can gain some moonaaay.

Peace, please . The only thing that u.s led invasion brought is war.

Blah blah blah, conspiracy theory, blah blah blah.

I am aware there is not peace there at the moment. My prediction was that when the US/UK pull out it will get even worse for the people there. And then somebody (probably the US/UK) will re-invade to keep the peace/root out terrorists.

What conspiracy theory ?

You said "again" which implies first time they invaded to bring peace.

GTFO with your conspiracy gooseberry fool.

Stating that the US invaded for financial reasons sounds like a conspiracy theory, especially when it is coming from a guy who thinks that the moon landings were fake. And you think they invaded Afghanistan for money? Money as a reason for invading Iraq I might slightly agree with, Afghanistan certainly hasn’t made any government rich.

My use of “again” was meaning that we may well invade again in the future and the future reason will probably be to try and bring peace to the region.

Moggy, the reasons for the occupation may not simply be ' because money', but I thought it was common knowledge it was never for the good of the native population. Until Iran becomes a little less able to ward off US 'interests', Afghanistan remains the geo-political holy grail it is. Big game for only the most powerful to hunt. A better alternative than a huge new pipeline to south China, and a chance to take away some of the power Russia holds over oil in central asia.

It's all a grand mess now, with ever-changing relationships between the US and Pakistan & India (and other countries in the region) moving the goalposts for whatever plans may have been.

Disneyland Afghanistan, largest theme park on Earth.

Just throwing it out there.

TimeGhost wrote:Moggy, the reasons for the occupation may not simply be ' because money', but I thought it was common knowledge it was never for the good of the native population. Until Iran becomes a little less able to ward off US 'interests', Afghanistan remains the geo-political holy grail it is. Big game for only the most powerful to hunt. A better alternative than a huge new pipeline to south China, and a chance to take away some of the power Russia holds over oil in central asia.

It's all a grand mess now, with ever-changing relationships between the US and Pakistan & India (and other countries in the region) moving the goalposts for whatever plans may have been.

Oh I am not naïve enough to think we invaded to help the people there. I don’t think the Bush government even really claimed that, we went in to fight for truth, justice and the American way. Or some gooseberry fool like that. It is an unholy mess now and I think it will only get worse when we leave. In fact it will probably get so bad that we will have to go back in at some point (a good few years down the line though).