Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Now that Sunak has confirmed the UK GE will be in 2024, I couldn't resist...

Welcome to the Politics special: 2024 predictions contest!!

I'm going to keep things fairly simple, for accessible fun. Did I say fun? This is a deadly serious competition. Those with the worst predictions will be mocked, ruthlessly, and cast into the eternal GRcade Pit of Pariahs*.

Anyone can stick a finger in the air a few days before an election – we're going to prove our collective political nous by locking in our predictions by 11.59pm on New Year's Eve.

Question 1: The General Election of the United Kingdom

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election?

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election?
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive?

Scoring methodology:

The winner will be crowned as GRcade's Political Oracle. Will Qikz retain this prestigious title, or will he be toppled by a brave challenger?

Use the following template to submit your official predictions, inputting your name at the top:

Name wrote:1(a)
1(b)
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
2(a)
2(b)

Good luck! :toot:

*In reality, a huge amount can (and very likely will) change between now and when both of these elections actually take place. I can easily imagine looking at this when the time comes and thinking "Omg remember back in December when it seemed like this...". Don't worry – it's just a bit of fun!

Tracker!

Last edited by Moggy on Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Moggy wrote:1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)
(i) 418
(ii) 165
(iii) 6
(iv) 46
(v) 0
(vi) 0
2(a) Joe Biden
2(b) 306

Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

1(a) Starmer
1(b)
(i) 378
(ii) 163
(iii) 40
(iv) 0
(v) 0
2(a) Trump
2(b) 274

Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election? KEIR STARMER

(b) From a maximum of 650, how many seats will be won by:
(i) Labour - 404
(ii) The Tories - 88
(iii) The Liberal Democrats - 32
(iv) Reform UK - 0
(v) The Green Party - 1

(a) Which person will win the election? Trump
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive? 272

So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?

No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Curls wrote:So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?

In a sane world yes, but this isnt sane. I expect an MJ style situation, free but broke.

1(a) Rishi Sunak
1(b)

2(a) Donald Trump
2(b) 297

Welcome to the bad place

Drummy wrote:1(a) Kier Starmer
1(b)
(i) 442
(ii) 115
(iii) 32
(iv) 0
(v) 1
2(a) Biden
2(b) 306

3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?
Yes

Added a bonus question which certainly warrants inclusion

Harry Ellis wrote:
3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?

Yes, but only if Layla Moran goes to dinner with him.

Last edited by Vermilion on Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:29 am, edited 1 time in total.

1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)

(i) Labour - 338
(ii) Conservatives - 257
(iii) Lib Dems - 34
SNP - 20
(iv) Reform UK - 0
(v) Green Party - 1

2(a) Donald Trump
2(b) 274

Lex-Man wrote:Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

Good shout. Done!

Van Foster wrote:No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Good shout. Done!

Sorry everyone :slol:

please amend your predictions accordingly — you have just over 12 days to do so!

I'm expecting the election campaigns to really ramp up very quickly as we get into 2024. It'll be both interesting and potentially horrifying to see how our expectations shift as the chaos develops.

Moggy wrote:
Harry Ellis wrote:
3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?

Yes, but only if Layla Moran goes to dinner with him.

You guys know me too well :datass:

Dowbocop wrote:1(a) Sirkeerse Tarmer
1(b)
(i) 441
(ii) 148
(iii) 58
(iv) 0
(v) 3
2(a) Joeb I. Denn
2(b) 301

Curls wrote:So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?

The problem is he can still be president even if he's in prison.

Peter Crisp wrote:
Curls wrote:So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?

The problem is he can still be president even if he's in prison.

Can't he pardon himself if he becomes president again?

Still, i've now updated my prediction with the SNP, i think Labour will win a lot of their seats this time out though.

Vermi Claus wrote:
Can't he pardon himself if he becomes president again?

Only for federal crimes.

Trump isn't going to prison.

Victor Mistletoe wrote:Trump isn't going to prison.

You think he's going to get the death penalty?
It's a possibility I suppose.

Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

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