Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Ob Bob wrote:1(a) Starmer
1(b)
(i) 389
(ii) 169
(iii) 12
(iv) 44
(v) 1
(vi) 1
2(a) Biden
2(b) 292

Edit - I will certainly be adjusting this before the deadline. Hopefully when I'm feeling more optimistic!

Update: we now have an Excel tracker! :toot:

I've put 0 SNP for now for those yet to update their predictions.

A lot of you predicting the end of democracy in America next year :dread:

Tomous wrote:A lot of you predicting the end of democracy in America next year

They've never really been a democracy, Emperor Trump will just mean they stop lying about it.

1(a) Starmer
1(b)
(i) 459
(ii) 120
(iii) 5
(iv) 31
(v) 1
(vi) 1
2(a) Biden
2(b) 306

Be good to get a few more entries in before the deadline, so we get a clearer look at the wisdom of the GRcade crowd.

Qikzmas wrote:Ping

At the very least, we need the reigning champ to defend his title!

Although this does mean I need to turn my work laptop on :dread:

to update the tracker.

Tomous wrote:A lot of you predicting the end of democracy in America next year

Maybe I am in denial, but the only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden dies or is severely incapacitated. I'm surprised so many people think Trump will win.

I'll try to give this a go tomorrow

1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)

2(a) Joe Biden
2(b) 300

Lex-Man wrote:Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

1(a) Starmer
1(b)
(Lab) 399
(Tories) 173
(SNP) 22
(Lib Dem) 35
(Green) 0
(Reform) 0
2(a) Trump
2(b) 274

Ok, here's my update. I feel like I'm going to be well short these numbers seem insane. Tories will probably be at least 250.

Ill guess 28 for SNP. Im not sure we'll see mass flips to Labour in Scitland, but certainly plenty.

Harry Ellis wrote:1(a) Kier Starmer
1(b)
(i) 442 Lab
(ii) 115 Con
(iii) 42 SNP
(iv) 32 Libs
(iv) 0 Reform
(v) 1 Green
2(a) Biden
2(b) 306

3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?
Yes

Updated to include SNP

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election?
Starmer

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:

(i) Labour - 450
(ii) The Tories - 130
(iii) The SNP - 10
(iv) The Liberal Democrats - 37
(v) Reform UK - 0
(vi) The Green Party - 5

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election? Biden
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive? 300

I'm definitely not going to win this time :slol:

Question 1: The General Election of the United Kingdom

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election?

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election?
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive?

Dan wrote:1(a) Kier Starmer
1(b)
(i) 401
(ii) 68
(iii) 18
(iv) 42
(v) 7
(vi) 1
2(a) Joe Biden
2(b) 306

I see you went the same route as me for 2b. :slol:

Question 1: The General Election of the United Kingdom

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election? Starmer

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:

(i) Labour 390
(ii) The Tories 162
(iii) The SNP 10
(iv) The Liberal Democrats 68
(v) Reform UK 0
(vi) The Green Party 2

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election? Biden
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive? 324

Question 1: The General Election of the United Kingdom

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election?
Starmer

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:
(i) Labour- 360
(ii) The Tories- 208
(iii) The SNP- 37
(iv) The Liberal Democrats- 17
(v) Reform UK- 8
(vi) The Green Party- 2

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election?
Trump
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive?- 273

I feel as we get closer to our election Tory voters will drop off, but they'll still default to them mostly. Reform will pick up some of the stragglers. SNP will take a bit of a hit, maybe a couple to the LDs or Greens, but Labour will pick up everything else for a pretty comfy majority.

For America I have no idea, so want to be pleasantly surprised. I think it'll be too close no matter which way it goes. A part of me thinks they'll both be dead by then anyway.

My predictions are as follows:

Sprouty wrote:1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)
(i) Labour - 422
(ii) The Tories - 148
(iii) The SNP - 16
(iv) The Liberal Democrats - 41
(v) Reform UK - 0
(vi) The Green Party - 1
2(a) Trump
2(b) 280

Good luck all!

Some saucy predictions coming in :datass:

including this one from Emily Thornberry:

UK heading for a May General Election is the worst-kept secret in Parliament

Asked if the budget date signals an early election, Ms Thornberry said: "Yeah, it's the worst kept secret in parliament that we are likely to be heading for a May election and this budget date seems to confirm that."

While Labour is of the view the election will be held in May, experts have told Sky News the Tories could simply be trying to keep the Opposition on their toes - and an autumn election is more likely.

I think I lied when I said I would certainly adjust my predictions. Now I feel like I should stick with my gut.

Just over 12 hours left to lock in!

Updated tracker:

Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

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