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Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 2:44 pm
by Oblomov Boblomov
Now that Sunak has confirmed the UK GE will be in 2024, I couldn't resist...

Welcome to the Politics special: 2024 predictions contest!!

I'm going to keep things fairly simple, for accessible fun. Did I say fun? This is a deadly serious competition. Those with the worst predictions will be mocked, ruthlessly, and cast into the eternal GRcade Pit of Pariahs*.

Anyone can stick a finger in the air a few days before an election – we're going to prove our collective political nous by locking in our predictions by 11.59pm on New Year's Eve.

Question 1: The General Election of the United Kingdom

(a) Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election?

(b) From a maximum of 632, how many seats will be won by:
    (i) Labour
    (ii) The Tories
    (iii) The SNP
    (iv) The Liberal Democrats
    (v) Reform UK
    (vi) The Green Party

Question 2: The United States Presidential Election

(a) Which person will win the election?
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive?

Scoring methodology:

1(a) - 2 points for correctly guessing Keir Starmer; 20 points for correctly guessing anyone else
1(b) - Start off with 180 points, lose one for every number of seats between each result compared with your predictions
2(a) - 5 points for correctly guessing either Joe Biden or Donald Trump; 40 points for correctly guessing anyone else
2(b) - 30 points, minus the difference between your prediction and the actual result

The minimum score for each question is 0.


The winner will be crowned as GRcade's Political Oracle. Will Qikz retain this prestigious title, or will he be toppled by a brave challenger?

Use the following template to submit your official predictions, inputting your name at the top:

Name wrote:1(a)
1(b)
    (i)
    (ii)
    (iii)
    (iv)
    (v)
    (vi)
2(a)
2(b)


Good luck! :toot:

*In reality, a huge amount can (and very likely will) change between now and when both of these elections actually take place. I can easily imagine looking at this when the time comes and thinking "Omg remember back in December when it seemed like this...". Don't worry – it's just a bit of fun!

Tracker!

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Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 2:50 pm
by Moggy
Moggy wrote:1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)
    (i) 418
    (ii) 165
    (iii) 6
    (iv) 46
    (v) 0
    (vi) 0
2(a) Joe Biden
2(b) 306

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 3:08 pm
by Lex-Man
Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

1(a) Starmer
1(b)
(i) 378
(ii) 163
(iii) 40
(iv) 0
(v) 0
2(a) Trump
2(b) 274

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:17 pm
by DML
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom following the election? KEIR STARMER

(b) From a maximum of 650, how many seats will be won by:
(i) Labour - 404
(ii) The Tories - 88
(iii) The Liberal Democrats - 32
(iv) Reform UK - 0
(v) The Green Party - 1

(a) Which person will win the election? Trump
(b) From a maximum of 538, how many electoral votes will the winning candidate receive? 272

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 4:30 pm
by Curls
So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 5:19 pm
by Van Foster
No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 6:39 pm
by DML
Curls wrote:So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?


In a sane world yes, but this isnt sane. I expect an MJ style situation, free but broke.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 6:42 pm
by Hypes
1(a) Rishi Sunak
1(b)
    (i) 290
    (ii) 330
    (iii) 25
    (iv) 0
    (v) 1
2(a) Donald Trump
2(b) 297


Welcome to the bad place

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 6:52 pm
by Drumstick
Drummy wrote:1(a) Kier Starmer
1(b)
    (i) 442
    (ii) 115
    (iii) 32
    (iv) 0
    (v) 1
2(a) Biden
2(b) 306

3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?
Yes

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:03 pm
by Drumstick
Added a bonus question which certainly warrants inclusion

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:17 pm
by Moggy
Harry Ellis wrote:
3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?



Yes, but only if Layla Moran goes to dinner with him.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 7:26 pm
by Vermilion
1(a) Keir Starmer
1(b)

(i) Labour - 338
(ii) Conservatives - 257
(iii) Lib Dems - 34
SNP - 20
(iv) Reform UK - 0
(v) Green Party - 1

2(a) Donald Trump
2(b) 274

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:13 pm
by Oblomov Boblomov
Lex-Man wrote:Might want to subtract 18 from the total number of seats to take account of the NI seats.

Good shout. Done!

Van Foster wrote:No guess attempt for SNP seat numbers?

Good shout. Done!

Sorry everyone :slol: please amend your predictions accordingly — you have just over 12 days to do so!

I'm expecting the election campaigns to really ramp up very quickly as we get into 2024. It'll be both interesting and potentially horrifying to see how our expectations shift as the chaos develops.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:14 pm
by Oblomov Boblomov
Moggy wrote:
Harry Ellis wrote:
3) Will OB vote for the Lib Dems Yes/No?



Yes, but only if Layla Moran goes to dinner with him.


You guys know me too well :datass:

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:37 pm
by Dowbocop
Dowbocop wrote:1(a) Sirkeerse Tarmer
1(b)
    (i) 441
    (ii) 148
    (iii) 58
    (iv) 0
    (v) 3
2(a) Joeb I. Denn
2(b) 301

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:46 pm
by Peter Crisp
Curls wrote:So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?


The problem is he can still be president even if he's in prison.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:31 am
by Vermilion
Peter Crisp wrote:
Curls wrote:So whats happening with Trump then, isn't he meant to be going to prison?


The problem is he can still be president even if he's in prison.


Can't he pardon himself if he becomes president again?

Still, i've now updated my prediction with the SNP, i think Labour will win a lot of their seats this time out though.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:33 am
by Moggy
Vermi Claus wrote:
Can't he pardon himself if he becomes president again?


Only for federal crimes.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2023 7:35 am
by Victor Mildew
Trump isn't going to prison.

Re: Politics special: 2024 predictions contest

Posted: Wed Dec 20, 2023 12:36 pm
by Peter Crisp
Victor Mistletoe wrote:Trump isn't going to prison.


You think he's going to get the death penalty?
It's a possibility I suppose.