US Politics - Trump cancels summit having to do with North Korea

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Monkey Man
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Monkey Man » Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:34 am

US Officials: Info suggests Trump associates may have coordinated with Russians

Washington (CNN)The FBI has information that indicates associates of President Donald Trump communicated with suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton's campaign, US officials told CNN.

This is partly what FBI Director James Comey was referring to when he made a bombshell announcement Monday before Congress that the FBI is investigating the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, according to one source.

The FBI is now reviewing that information, which includes human intelligence, travel, business and phone records and accounts of in-person meetings, according to those U.S. officials. The information is raising the suspicions of FBI counterintelligence investigators that the coordination may have taken place, though officials cautioned that the information was not conclusive and that the investigation is ongoing.

In his statement on Monday Comey said the FBI began looking into possible coordination between Trump campaign associates and suspected Russian operatives because the bureau had gathered "a credible allegation of wrongdoing or reasonable basis to believe an American may be acting as an agent of a foreign power."

The White House did not comment and the FBI declined to comment.

White House press secretary Sean Spicer maintained Monday after Comey's testimony that there was no evidence to suggest any collusion took place.

"Investigating it and having proof of it are two different things," Spicer said.

One law enforcement official said the information in hand suggests "people connected to the campaign were in contact and it appeared they were giving the thumbs up to release information when it was ready." But other U.S. officials who spoke to CNN say it's premature to draw that inference from the information gathered so far since it's largely circumstantial.

The FBI cannot yet prove that collusion took place, but the information suggesting collusion is now a large focus of the investigation, the officials said.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/22/polit ... index.html

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Alvin Flummux
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Alvin Flummux » Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:24 am

Aw gooseberry fool! This presidency is going to become a real shitshow now. Despite the fact that FBI is going to have difficulty establishing direct connections, as Russia has probably changed its methods of communication since the inauguration, this is going to hang over Trump for a long while - months to years.

This could demoralize enough of his base, just in time for the midterms, to allow the Democrats to get a respectable sweep of seats; their Senate map may look daunting, but their Congressional and Gubernatorial maps look pretty good. It could even contribute to him being so unpopular over time within his own party that we could see a Ted Cruz type, or a John Kasich sort, mount a primary challenge, perhaps leading to Trump becoming the first sitting president in over a century to not be his party's choice for another term. In that case, I could see a vengeful Trump taking up an independent bid for the presidency, taking his core voters with him and handing the win to the Democrats. Even if Trump wins the primaries again though, a brutal primary season would undoubtedly hurt his chances in November anyway, as the traditional Republican base could easily be too disillusioned by then to want him back.

As long as this Russia scandal keeps bubbling, the GOP's odds of having a great midterm sweep next year recede into the distance. If the investigation, leaks and attendant news scoops drag on up to and beyond the midterms, the Democrats might be able to overturn at least one house majority, which would leave Trump's agenda a smoking pile of wreckage as big congressional or senate investigations into Russia et al begin to unfold.

Clinton was ruined by years of a constant drumbeat of Benghazi and emails. Trump may well be ruined by an equivalent drumbeat of Russia and other scandals.

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Harry Ola
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Harry Ola » Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:09 pm

Easy D focussing on the things that matter, as always:

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/844886082663698436


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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Harry Ola » Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:43 pm

Obama speaks on the 7th Anniversary of the Affordable Care Act.

twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/844900763570786307


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Harry Ola
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Harry Ola » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:08 pm

In other news, Donald's Time magazine interview about truth telling struggled with veracity.

http://time.com/4710456/donald-trump-time-interview-truth-falsehood/?xid=homepage

And this is from the editorial.

During the 2016 campaign, 70% of the Trump statements reviewed by PolitiFact were false, 4% were entirely true, 11% mostly true. Voters were not deceived: nearly two-thirds said that Trump was not trustworthy, including nearly a third of the people who voted for him anyway. Dishonesty in a candidate, far from being disqualifying, became a badge of "disruption."

Now that he is the President, however, he speaks on behalf of the country, and his words have a vastly different weight. The prospect of a hastily tweeted insult provoking a nuclear-armed rival gives new urgency to the helpful suggestion "Delete your account." For a leader who condemns the media so viciously, Trump consumes it voraciously, and what he takes in has become a matter of global significance, most recently when he accused President Obama of outsourcing illegal surveillance to British intelligence. If he believes accusations leveled by a pundit on Fox News, whom the network's own anchors dismiss as uninformed, it reveals a great deal about the sources and standards of evidence the President lives by.

Trust is a transaction between leaders and those they lead. Throughout our history, the deeply held beliefs of various Presidents have taken the nation into war, delayed the pursuit of peace, alienated allies, appeased enemies. At other times, presidential beliefs have conquered the continent, freed the slaves, taken us to the moon because the President firmly believed we could get there. As citizens, it is vital that we be able to believe our President; it is also vital that we know what he believes, and why. This President has made both a severe challenge.

Nancy Gibbs, EDITOR

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Preezy
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Preezy » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:14 pm

He's going to go down in history as the worst President in the history of the US, he wants a legacy but he'll just be regarded as a stain that will be rarely mentioned.

Delicious :datass:

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Alvin Flummux
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Alvin Flummux » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:47 pm

Preezy wrote:He's going to go down in history as the worst President in the history of the US, he wants a legacy but he'll just be regarded as a stain that will be rarely mentioned.

Delicious :datass:


This may be why he's so keen to get men to Mars - it'd ensure him some kind of mention in the history books long after the rest of his legacy is overturned or buried by history.

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DML
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by DML » Thu Mar 23, 2017 7:32 pm

Pretty sure he's going to get impeached. His tactics won't work for much longer.

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Memento Mori
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Memento Mori » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:14 pm

DML wrote:Pretty sure he's going to get impeached. His tactics won't work for much longer.

Why would the republicans impeach him any time soon?

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DML
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by DML » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:14 pm

Memento Mori wrote:
DML wrote:Pretty sure he's going to get impeached. His tactics won't work for much longer.

Why would the republicans impeach him any time soon?


For longer term gain. He's going to become too toxic.

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captain red dog
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by captain red dog » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:20 pm

Alvin Flummux wrote:Incidental Trump communications interception where the target is someone else =/= Trump woz wire raped by Obummer.

It is a little bit concerning though the amount of redirect there has been on this story from the intelligence community. Non-committal answers initially, then a flat out denial, then a muted rolling back to an admission that there was a tap but not on Trump. If that was any other presidential candidate there would be an outcry.

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DML
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by DML » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:23 pm

captain red dog wrote:
Alvin Flummux wrote:Incidental Trump communications interception where the target is someone else =/= Trump woz wire raped by Obummer.

It is a little bit concerning though the amount of redirect there has been on this story from the intelligence community. Non-committal answers initially, then a flat out denial, then a muted rolling back to an admission that there was a tap but not on Trump. If that was any other presidential candidate there would be an outcry.


I couldn't give a strawberry float. If someone goes as low as Trump goes - it's time for the dirty tactics to come out. Take him to task.

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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by captain red dog » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:25 pm

DML wrote:
captain red dog wrote:
Alvin Flummux wrote:Incidental Trump communications interception where the target is someone else =/= Trump woz wire raped by Obummer.

It is a little bit concerning though the amount of redirect there has been on this story from the intelligence community. Non-committal answers initially, then a flat out denial, then a muted rolling back to an admission that there was a tap but not on Trump. If that was any other presidential candidate there would be an outcry.


I couldn't give a strawberry float. If someone goes as low as Trump goes - it's time for the dirty tactics to come out. Take him to task.

You can out do someone like Trump when it comes to dirty tactics.

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KK
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by KK » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:18 pm

twitter.com/stevekopack/status/844995773838315520



He's been watching Boris...

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Alvin Flummux
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Alvin Flummux » Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:24 am

The AHCA vote has been delayed.

538 has an article on Trump's options as far as this goes, and none of them look great:

Trump could fold. This would involve making some public declaration that the Republicans needed to go back to the drawing board on health care or move on to other priorities. While this might allow Trump to save some face, it would nevertheless be a costly play. He’d concede defeat on one of his signature priorities, his reputation as a dealmaker would take a hit, and The House Freedom Caucus would feel as though they had a notch in their belt. It would be embarrassing — and if the past is any guide, Trump wouldn’t handle his embarrassment very well.

Trump could raise, going “all-in” on the bill and doing everything he could to secure passage. This would probably involve making further compromises with the House Freedom Caucus — pushing the bill further to the right and perhaps making it even less popular — and then threatening moderate Republican who dared to defect from the bill. It just might work to get the bill across the finish line in the House. Then again, it might not, and Trump would have wasted more political capital without getting anywhere. Or the bill could pass the House and then die in the Senate, putting House Republicans in a position where they’d taken a roll call vote on an extremely unpopular bill and had nothing to show for it. Or perhaps the bill eventually would pass the Senate and become law, only for Republicans to discover that the public wasn’t bluffing when they told pollsters that they hated the bill, hurting Trump’s approval rating and costing Republicans dozens of seats at the midterms. Republicans might face another round of political backlash, furthermore, once millions of Americans discovered they were no longer able to afford their health insurance or their policies didn’t cover as much as they used to.

Finally, Trump could call — which would mean distancing himself from the bill without a clear plan for what came next. He wouldn’t officially declare the Republicans’ health care efforts dead; in fact, he and Press Secretary Sean Spicer would stubbornly resist the “FAKE NEWS” narrative that the bill had failed. But he’d largely stop lobbying Republicans on behalf of the bill, instead telling House Speaker Paul Ryan to figure things out for himself. The risks here are obvious enough. Trump — who remains popular with rank-and-file GOP voters and members of Congress — is the best salesmen Republicans have. Without his working on its behalf, the GOP bill would probably become even more unpopular. But Ryan might not have an exit strategy and relations between the White House and Capitol Hill could fray. The whole process could play out for months, exerting a continuous drag on Trump’s popularity, as the Democrats’ health care bill did to President Obama.


More at the link: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... alth-care/

Trump wants the House to vote on it tomorrow, and if it fails, he's just going to move on, leaving the ACA in place until he can rack up some needed wins on other fronts (tax reform, infrastructure, the wall etc). It looks like he's going to do what Nate Silver would do - fold - which would, as the article suggests, be an uncharacteristic move for him to make. Whether he'll make good on that, I don't know, he seems to go back on a lot of what he says.

He's going to take a hit no matter what, though.

Oh, and 538 has a Trump Approval Tracker, in case you were wondering how he's polling.

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Preezy
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Preezy » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:34 am

Not sure I'd put much stock in 538's polls these days after they completely botched the election. They're still a decent commentary site though, obviously.

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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Cuttooth » Fri Mar 24, 2017 7:17 am

Preezy wrote:Not sure I'd put much stock in 538's polls these days after they completely botched the election. They're still a decent commentary site though, obviously.

They were one of the few places that gave Trump any kind of chance. :?

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Photek
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Photek » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:07 am

Cuttooth wrote:
Preezy wrote:Not sure I'd put much stock in 538's polls these days after they completely botched the election. They're still a decent commentary site though, obviously.

They were one of the few places that gave Trump any kind of chance. :?

The Night of the Election they had Hillary at a 91% chance of winning, they have completely lost all credibility.

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Preezy
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Preezy » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:09 am

Can't believe I'm typing this but... thanks Photek


I need a shower.

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Lex-Man
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PostRe: The American Politics Thread
by Lex-Man » Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:28 am

Photek wrote:
Cuttooth wrote:
Preezy wrote:Not sure I'd put much stock in 538's polls these days after they completely botched the election. They're still a decent commentary site though, obviously.

They were one of the few places that gave Trump any kind of chance. :?

The Night of the Election they had Hillary at a 91% chance of winning, they have completely lost all credibility.


No, most places did give Trump a 9% chance of winning. 538 were at 28%. Still not great but better than most.

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