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Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:16 pm
by Slartibartfast
Faust wrote:There are 650 MP's and 59 of them are in Scotland (49 of which are currently labour MP's), I find it hard to believe that this doesn't have an effect on the outcome of a general election. Do you have any sources that back that up?
Well one way would be to consider how many governments had majorities less than 59 - which any idiot knows is not many. I mean, even in 2005 Blair had a majority of 66. Anyway, this is what I was thinking of...
"At two elections - 1964 and 1974 - Labour would not have won without Scottish votes. And at the last election, David Cameron would have gained an overall majority if Scotland's votes had been excluded," Aaronovitch wrote.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25035427
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:26 pm
by Herdanos
Slartibartfast wrote:England wouldn't be consigned for Tory rule.
Slartibartfast wrote:"At two elections - 1964 and 1974 - Labour would not have won without Scottish votes.
And at the last election, David Cameron would have gained an overall majority if Scotland's votes had been excluded," Aaronovitch wrote.http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25035427
So... you disagree... with yourself?
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:26 pm
by Faust
Three elections is still enough to change history.
Labour losing their Scottish seats may not be a compete deal breaker for them, but it will make it harder for them to get a majority. They'll have to work harder to get in power, which is never a bad thing for any political party.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:27 pm
by Herdanos
Interesting to see how the poll is going so far. Those eligible for the referendum are leaning slightly towards independence, whereas those that are not are against it. I'd wager that could be fairly representative of the public at large.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:30 pm
by Return_of_the_STAR
If 49 out of 59 Scottish MPs are labour then why are the SNP in charge?
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:32 pm
by Rocsteady
It's not. Every poll that's been done in Scotland has gone toward a no vote.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:33 pm
by SEP
What, and let that banana split Alex Salmond have the little empire he clearly so desperately wants? Not a strawberry floating chance.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:57 pm
by Nibble
Somebody Else's Problem wrote:What, and let that banana split Alex Salmond have the little empire he clearly so desperately wants? Not a strawberry floating chance.
It's not about Alex Salmond.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Fri Feb 07, 2014 11:10 pm
by SEP
Nibble wrote:Somebody Else's Problem wrote:What, and let that banana split Alex Salmond have the little empire he clearly so desperately wants? Not a strawberry floating chance.
It's not about Alex Salmond.
I'm pretty sure he thinks it is.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 12:13 am
by bear
Lagamorph wrote:Against, though not eligible to vote, because it would be a completely pointless endeavour.
Scotland says it wants to keep the pounds, but exercise self control of it? Never going to hà ppen. The British government and the Bank of England won't give even partial control of the pound to Scotland like that, so it leaves three options.
1) Allow England more or less full control of an independent Scotland's financial system (hardly independence)
2) Join the Euro (a mistake on so many levels it isn't funny)
3) Create a new currency (more than likely prohibitively expensive to establish quickly)
There's also the position of Scotland in the EU. Despite the yes campaigns claims, the most likely scenario is that Scotland will have to begin outside the EU and negotiate entry from an external position. The time that takes could be far too long for a truly independent Scotland to survive without Greece levels of buggery.
I'm not sure how you are jumping to the conclusion that Scotland remaining outside the EU for a few years could lead to Greece levels of buggery. It'd take absolutely horrendous mismanagement of the economy for Scotland to end up with the economy as messed up as Greece.
Scotland would need to have its own currency before potentially joining the Euro so that option isn't worth wasting time discussing.
As for the other two surely in the medium to long term an orderly decoupling of the UK and Scottish pound is the most sensible option for both sides of the equation? Its hardly in the UKs interest to create turbulence surrounding sterling afterall.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 7:20 am
by Slartibartfast
Dan. wrote:Slartibartfast wrote:England wouldn't be consigned for Tory rule.
Slartibartfast wrote:"At two elections - 1964 and 1974 - Labour would not have won without Scottish votes.
And at the last election, David Cameron would have gained an overall majority if Scotland's votes had been excluded," Aaronovitch wrote.http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25035427
So... you disagree... with yourself?
Meh, what crawled up your arse - the first post was written from memory. Besides, without Scottish MPs, hung parliaments would be more likely for Labour, but article I was recalling only specifically quoted two dates that Labour wouldn't have won and didn't get to the detail of majorities and hung parliaments etc.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 9:28 am
by Moggy
Faust wrote:Moggy wrote:Faust wrote: I don't believe I ever degraded any group in here other than labour AND the conservatives...
Faust wrote:I was just lumping together every benefit claimant (of which I am one currently) as the 'underclass' those living on the least amount in this country.
I would imagine somebody out of work and desperate to find a job would feel degraded by being lumped in with actual workshy people.
Personal attacks? Is that really needed? Have my opinions really offended you that much?
There was no personal attack there.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2014 2:12 pm
by Meep
Slartibartfast wrote:I hope they stay, it's too much of a ball ache if they leave. Besides, with the same head of state, money and shitty weather they had before - what difference does it make?
At least they aren't currently knee deep in their own waste water.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:55 am
by Scotticus Erroticus
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:17 am
by CuriousOyster
Voted no, and will be in September.
No way an independent Scotland could thrive. For one the RBS bail out was larger than the entire Scottish economy and now RBS are saying they would move their HQ to London anyway to be nearer the Bank of England
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 2:43 pm
by Herdanos
CuriousOyster wrote:For one the RBS bail out was larger than the entire Scottish economy and now RBS are saying they would move their HQ to London anyway to be nearer the Bank of England
If Scotland went independent RBS would be owned outright by a foreign government. Has this happened anywhere else in the world? It would be a bizarre state of affairs.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:45 pm
by TheWay
Why? RBS is a commerical bank. It's not like the Bank of England.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:21 am
by Pontius Pilate
I voted no under the eligible option, mostly because I assume the OP wanted to gauge the opinion of both Scots and the rest. But I'm not actually sure if I am eligible. Can I vote from abroad? I know you can't vote if you're a Scot who currently lives anywhere in the UK outside of Scotland.
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 1:33 pm
by Herdanos
TheWay wrote:Why? RBS is a commerical bank. It's not like the Bank of England.
I know, but how many governments own banks through bailouts
that are based in a foreign country?
Re: Scottish independence
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 2:20 pm
by Scotticus Erroticus
Currency unions are perfectly normal. In the UK it would be in the interests of both nations to enter one, hence why negotiations have already started taking place on the formalities of it. Imagine what would happen to the 'English' pound it it lost Scotland's part of the UK's balance of payments? Even if the referendum hasn't taken place and the outcome far from certain, it makes a lot of sense to begin the discussions and fortunately they have.