Alvin Flummux wrote:
Mexico aren't going to absorb those states
the explanation above about the explosion of the population in those areas is akin to saying "there's a lot of Scottish people living past the border in England... soon they will overtake England"
Say you have two countries next to one another, and one conquers significant parts of the others' territory, but over the next couple of hundred years, due to much internal strife, citizens of the second country flood the border regions of the wealthier first (former territories of the second). Eventually, after around 250 years or so, the migration and such gets to the point where the aforementioned border provinces of the first nation are effectively territories of the second in all but name. Provided the second country sorts out its crippling internal conflicts and its economy improves to the extent that it can be improved in stable conditions (allowing for a much more confident, assertive role on the world stage)... then the chances of there being a confrontation over territories once lost in an unprovoked war, later reclaimed in all but name, are high.
But yeah whatever, it's exactly like the English-Scottish border
Your point about gradual migration is a valid one Alvin, the state of US border demographics is a very interesting one indeed, and not entirely dissimilar to factors that contributed to Texan independence in the 1840s, ie. a large migration of non-natives (in this case I merely mean non-Mexican, not specifically Tex-Mex), that eventually led to US settlers becoming the majority population in Texas.
I do, however, think you overestimate States' abilities to 'reclaim' territory. It's very true that Mexico is a fast growing nation (I think it's around 15th in the world? - can't be bothered to wikipedia) and that in the next few decades it will likely become a major world power (though, as you rightly say, not until it gets its act together over organised crime). However, times have changed since the mid-19th Century; whilst the acquisition of territory is now illegal under international law, the US has occupied and administered California/Texas for over 150 years, administration/effective occupation being one of the strongest determinants of territorial possession, however that administration might have first come about. It's comparative military, economic and diplomatic weakness compared to the US aside, Mexico has no chance of ever reclaiming said territories. Nor, I would argue, would it ever try to. Whatever Jeremy Clarkson would have one believe, the Mexican Government aren't idiots.
Like you said though, Alvin. Give it another 30 years or so and Mexico won't really have to 'reclaim' this territory. By that time, the majority of US-Mexican border regions (any many others) will be majority Mexican, and will have the voting power to elect pro-Mexican officials. As time goes on, who knows what could happen.