Brexit

Karl wrote:Let's hope we do actually get these free trade deals. It will certainly be contingent on favourable visa policies for residents of those countries, which I would be very happy with as it will drive Daily Mail reading racists absolutely mad. "But we voted for no more foreigners!!!"

Grumpy David wrote:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/02/07/top-world-britain-outpace-g7-next-three-decades/

Top of the world: Britain to outpace G7 for 'next three decades'

The Telegraph wrote:Britain will grow faster than any other major advanced economy over the next three decades as the EU’s share of global output diminishes, according to PwC.

UK economic growth is predicted to outpace the US, Canada, France and Germany between 2016 and 2050, with average annual growth of 1.9pc.

This is also double the average annual pace of growth expected in Japan and Italy.

While the UK’s decision to leave the EU is expected to exert “some medium-term drag” on the economy, PwC signalled that Britain was in prime position to forge new trade ties with “faster-growing emerging economies”, which are expected to cement their status as the engines of global growth.

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said Britain’s “relatively flexible economy by European standards” was an advantage.

The share of working age Britons is forecast to be higher over the coming decades than most other G7 economies, according to the United Nations.

While these population projections were published before the UK’s decision to leave the EU, Mr Hawksworth said the UK’s “favourable demographic factors” were likely to continue.

PwC stressed that growth depended on the country “remaining open to talented people from around the world after Brexit”.

It added that “developing successful trade and investment links with faster-growing emerging economies” were “critical” if UK growth were to outpace other advanced economies and offset “probable weaker trade links with the EU after Brexit”.

PwC expects the global economy to double in size within a quarter of a century, with average annual growth of 2.6pc.

The expansion is forecast to be driven by emerging markets such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia, which are forecast to grow by 3.5pc between 2016 and 2050, compared with G7 average annual growth of 1.6pc.

China is expected to maintain its position as the world’s top economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for price differences and buying power in each country, while India is projected to overtake the US into second position.

The US will drop to third place in the rankings, while Indonesia and Brazil are expected to climb to fourth and fifth position respectively.

Britain is forecast to slip into tenth place, from ninth, while Italy is predicted to drop from 12th to 21st place, and Germany to ninth from fifth position.

In nominal terms, the UK is predicted to slide to ninth from fifth position over the next three decades.

PwC’s World in 2050 report said the “rise of China and India” would reduce the share of world GDP accounted for by Europe. India’s share is projected to be larger than the EU27 by 2035, with the EU’s share of the world economy (at PPPs) projected to drop from 15pc to 9pc by 2050.

“While the exact extent and timing of these shifts is subject to considerable uncertainty, the general direction of change is clear,” PwC said.

Analysis: how the world will look in 2050

The global economic order is changing.

PwC’s latest forecast for the world economy in 2050 shows the rise of emerging markets is expected to continue over the next few decades, even as questions loom over the future of trade and what a stronger dollar could mean for these countries in the next few years.

Predicting the future is not easy. The words “Brexit” and “Trump” tell you that.

But while the world is full of uncertainty, one trend is clear: populations around the world are ageing and there are fewer workers at the bottom to pay for the pensions of those retiring at the top.

The outlook is bleaker among major advanced economies, which PwC expects to grow at a “markedly slower” average rate of 1.6pc per year between now and 2050, compared with the global average of 2.6pc per year.

The weaker-than-expected recovery over the past few years does not bode well for the future, it says. The main driver of the slowdown is a downgrade of expected productivity growth in the US, with an ageing population, a “plateau of educational attainment”, and higher household and government borrowing all to blame.

Gave up trying to copy and paste the rest of the article via phone.

Good news though. Free trade deals with growing markets look like the key to making Brexit a success.

UK economic growth is predicted to outpace the US, Canada, France and Germany between 2016 and 2050, with average annual growth of 1.9pc.

The weaker-than-expected recovery over the past few years does not bode well for the future, it says. The main driver of the slowdown is a downgrade of expected productivity growth in the US, with an ageing population, a “plateau of educational attainment”, and higher household and government borrowing all to blame.

twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/829416103977811968

Squinty wrote:

twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/829416103977811968

LOL What the strawberry float.

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:

Squinty wrote:

twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/829416103977811968

LOL What the strawberry float.

No idea what this means.

Tory MPs block bid to reveal if Brexit will give the NHS £350million a week
Chuka Umunna wanted to force the government to publish a report estimating how Brexit would affect health spending - but it was blocked

Tory MPs have defeated a law that would have shown whether Brexit will hand £350million a week to the NHS.

The bid was voted down by 337 votes to 288 tonight despite a campaign by arch-Remainer Chuka Umunna.

The Labour MP tried to force the government to publish a report estimating how health spending will be affected after Britain leaves the EU.

He launched his bid after the £350million-a-week claim was plastered across posters and a bus by the Boris Johnson- and Michael Gove-backed Vote Leave campaign.

Yet Mr Johnson and Mr Gove were among those who voted against Mr Umunna's amendment tonight - as did Labour Leave bigwig Gisela Stuart.

KKLEIN wrote:MPs should be pretty ashamed of themselves, though particularly on the EU citizens one. It's not that they won't be able to stay (I believe they most definitely will) but rather the government wants to use them as a faux bargaining method in negotiations rather than guaranteeing it right out of the gate. Nobody seems to want to take the moral high ground.

Whether the government will get to the bargaining stage is another matter though, as the bill still has to go through the House of Lords in a couple of weeks, and I believe as it currently stands the maths aren't in the Conservative's favour.

The Independent wrote:Angela Merkel has reportedly blocked a request by Theresa May to guarantee the rights of EU citizens before Brexit negotiations begin next year.

The Prime Minister's informal approach to the German leader over EU migrants' status – in a state of limbo since the referendum in June – was made earlier this month when the pair held a joint conference in Germany, according to Politico.

But Ms May's attempt at a “reciprocity deal”, which would have guaranteed the existing rights of around 1.2 million British people on the continent and millions of EU migrants in the UK, was blocked by the German Chancellor.

Lagamorph wrote:And that stops the UK guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens because....?

Grumpy David wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:And that stops the UK guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens because....?

Because it should be done by both sides irrespective of how the negotiations go and before they start.

"We agree on this, so lets not make it political"
"Nein"
"Then the EU folk here will get the same deal you give UK folk in the EU states, but should you change your mind and guarantee the rights, then we will too"

I'm sure it's just a bluff, but it makes Merkel look bad, not May.

lex-man wrote:Also I doubt Merkel could offer that guarantee because it would have to be decided by all of the members countries. So even if she backed it Greece or Spain could refuse and she'd have to accept their decision.

twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/829436790763315207

Grumpy David wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:And that stops the UK guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens because....?

Because it should be done by both sides irrespective of how the negotiations go and before they start.

"We agree on this, so lets not make it political"
"Nein"
"Then the EU folk here will get the same deal you give UK folk in the EU states, but should you change your mind and guarantee the rights, then we will too"

I'm sure it's just a bluff, but it makes Merkel look bad, not May.