Brexit

KK wrote:Richard Branson thinks if Britain were to leave, it would be the beginning of the whole of the EU collapsing:

Richard Branson to Sky News wrote:I think it would be a very, very, very, very sad day if British people voted to leave, I think it would be very, very damaging for Great Britain.

I love Great Britain and I think it would be the start of most likely the break-up of the European Union.

Having a European Union - there is so many benefits and I just hope sense will prevail when it comes to having the vote on it.

He's probably not wrong though. The UK is one of the biggest economies in the EU, and aren't we on track to overtake Germany in the next few years making us pretty much the biggest? Given how badly some EU economies are doing, I doubt the EU could survive in it's current form without the UK for very long. The irony is that the UK leaving would probably trigger some much needed reform within the EU, meaning that our exit could potentially be good for other countries in the long run, but there'd be a lot of short term pain for everyone.

So far, I'll be voting to stay. Whilst the EU does have its problems and does need some serious reform in areas (over £100million a month for MEPs to go to Strasbourg? Come on), I think our membership does benefit the UK overall.

I will be voting to stay in. The EU isn't perfect (far from it) but (imo!) the benefits outweigh the negatives.

Lagamorph wrote:The UK is one of the biggest economies in the EU, and aren't we on track to overtake Germany in the next few years making us pretty much the biggest?

We're set to overtake France by 2020 and Germany by 2030, but those forecasts assume relatively centrist policy-making over the next decade: specifically that (a) we will retain a relatively liberal immigration policy and (b) we will remain in the EU.

We've already overtaken France.

Oh, sorry -- it turns out the study I found which I assumed Laga was referencing was actually from a few years ago. I didn't notice that at first! I know we've performed better than forecasted since then, and I think France has slumped too, so it would make sense that we've done it sooner than they predicted.

I think in retrospect I had actually heard about us overtaking France last year, but it didn't click when I was writing that post. My bad.

In terms of the economy, we also have the lowest unemployment rate since 2006, and the joint 3rd lowest within the EU. We're at 5.2%, whereas the likes of Greece (24.5%), Spain (20.8%), Italy (11.4%) & France (10.2%) are falling to pieces. Ours has continued to fall faster than anyone else.

We've been propping up weak eurozone countries for ages (the UK’s trading deficit with the EU is at a record high of £89 billion for goodness sakes). The EU is in nothing but decline - its share of the worldwide economy is at 23%. While the UK does export around 45-50% to the EU, that in itself has declined by over 10% in a decade. It's not like if we leave the EU they're going to suddenly stop trading with us completely - we're one of their biggest trading partners.

Immigration is another one. Not only could we get complete control of our borders back, most of our immigration is from OUTSIDE of the EU anyway (a fact just ignored by absolutely everyone). Instead of a bias towards crackpot, poor nations (and potentially Turkey don't forget) we'll actually be able to continue bringing in the best from other countries such as India, Japan, and China. Not to mention the NHS, which is propped up by people from the Philippines.

Both the In and Out campaigns are built on fear, and fear of the unknown. Unless Cameron can get his head out of his arse, I'll be voting leave.

The latest news reports I could find on the economic questions were these,
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/u ... -1-3984649
http://www.cityam.com/231501/world-econ ... st-economy

Which shows the UK as the fifth largest economy in the world, behind Germany, Japan, China and the USA, in that order (Our economy is now over half a trillion dollars above France). By the 2030's, should growth remain relatively stable, expectations were for the UK to overtake Germany and quite possibly Japan as well, putting is only behind China and the USA (Who are also likely to have swapped by that point), who both have significantly larger populations and landmasses. The main concern is that the EU exit uncertainty could be the biggest threat to that growth. Based on that it would make sense to me for the referendum to happen sooner rather than later, as it puts that question to rest once and for all.

I think my biggest surprise though was learning how strong the Japanese economy was. All I seem to hear about Japan news wise is doom and gloom, I had no idea they were the worlds third biggest economy.

Moggy wrote:I will be voting to stay in. The EU isn't perfect (far from it) but (imo!) the benefits outweigh the negatives.

Yup, that's how I see it.

I want to see the world move towards a more unified existence for humanity, not put up more borders.

If we leave it'll be really hard to get work permits on football manager

Thus I'm gonna vote to stay

Laga's right that certain areas desperately need reform; the frequent trips to Strasbourg are a joke. The expenses available to claim are crazy and the whole internal area is beyond pretentious, with subsidised canteens for the regular workers whilst the MEPs have even fancier areas with even larger discounts (because they don't earn enough, clearly). It's the same in Brussels incidentally.

Anyone voting to leave has to realise there will be subsequent economic hardship for a few years at least. The value of sterling will undoubtedly plummet.

I agree with its initial stated aims. I love the freedom of travel the EU offers. Continental Europe's largely fantastic. It is badly in need of reform, yet I agree with none of Cameron's proposals. Populist, pointless window dressing.

Despite it's many flaws, which I have now seen first-hand, I'm a definite stay.

Lagamorph wrote:The latest news reports I could find on the economic questions were these,
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/u ... -1-3984649
http://www.cityam.com/231501/world-econ ... st-economy

Which shows the UK as the fifth largest economy in the world, behind Germany, Japan, China and the USA, in that order (Our economy is now over half a trillion dollars above France). By the 2030's, should growth remain relatively stable, expectations were for the UK to overtake Germany and quite possibly Japan as well, putting is only behind China and the USA (Who are also likely to have swapped by that point), who both have significantly larger populations and landmasses. The main concern is that the EU exit uncertainty could be the biggest threat to that growth. Based on that it would make sense to me for the referendum to happen sooner rather than later, as it puts that question to rest once and for all.

I think my biggest surprise though was learning how strong the Japanese economy was. All I seem to hear about Japan news wise is doom and gloom, I had no idea they were the worlds third biggest economy.

They're holding on but not by much more than the skin of a ballhair. Their ageing population seems to be causing them all kinds of problems - there were scare stories doing the rounds as I was leaving last week that they're on the verge of going back into recession.

I know strawberry float all of these kinds of things though, Parksey or Jay or someone who lives in Japan may be able to shed a bit more light on the issue.

Encouraging to see the arguments for leaving here. This I like. I'm definitely going to vote to leave, but I'm just not at all optimistic that the nation will vote that way in the majority.

I view Cameron's shuttle-diplomacy as a pointless sideshow. Nothing of value seems to be emerging from it and, anyway, even after he's come back to Britain inevitably waving his little bit of paper heralding a 'new deal' for the UK's relationship with the EU (because he definitely wants to stay in the EU club) I'm fairly sure if Britain votes to stay it will very soon be 'business as usual' back in Brussels and Strasbourg.

Six months after any vote to stay nothing much will have changed and anything that might have been mooted for change will quickly be stamped on by the EU's bureaucratic idealogues.

Leave. But I really don't think it will happen.

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:The latest news reports I could find on the economic questions were these,
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/u ... -1-3984649
http://www.cityam.com/231501/world-econ ... st-economy

Which shows the UK as the fifth largest economy in the world, behind Germany, Japan, China and the USA, in that order (Our economy is now over half a trillion dollars above France). By the 2030's, should growth remain relatively stable, expectations were for the UK to overtake Germany and quite possibly Japan as well, putting is only behind China and the USA (Who are also likely to have swapped by that point), who both have significantly larger populations and landmasses. The main concern is that the EU exit uncertainty could be the biggest threat to that growth. Based on that it would make sense to me for the referendum to happen sooner rather than later, as it puts that question to rest once and for all.

I think my biggest surprise though was learning how strong the Japanese economy was. All I seem to hear about Japan news wise is doom and gloom, I had no idea they were the worlds third biggest economy.

They're holding on but not by much more than the skin of a ballhair. Their ageing population seems to be causing them all kinds of problems - there were scare stories doing the rounds as I was leaving last week that they're on the verge of going back into recession.

I know strawberry float all of these kinds of things though, Parksey or Jay or someone who lives in Japan may be able to shed a bit more light on the issue.

Aging population is one of the biggest issues I've heard for Japan. Their economy seems particularly reliant on a highly skilled workforce as, it appears at least, that their economy is heavily reliant on high tech industries and technology exports. Without a skilled younger generation to take over though that's heavily at risk. There's also the cultural differences of how people in Japan work and their work/life balance. I often hear stories of "Nobody leaves until the boss leaves" and "If the boss goes out then everyone goes out so people get very little sleep", but if you suddenly have to start relying on a skilled immigrant workforce with huge cultural differences then that's not really going to work, and you're going to end up with a clash of young immigrant workforce and ageing native workforce with completely incompatible views of how work life should be.

Nothing over the last few weeks has changed my mind, I'd still reluctantly vote to leave. I feel Europe has become a big unmanageable mess, full of red tape and vested interests. I think it is worryingly undemocratic and I don't see any sign of it changing. Cameron's renegotiation has been too short sighted and narrow minded for me. It amazes me that people criticise Westminster, whilst supporting a continued union with Brussels which is far, far worse.

I love the original (UK sold) concept of Europe as a common market, but it has grown far beyond that.

Lagamorph wrote:

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:The latest news reports I could find on the economic questions were these,
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/u ... -1-3984649
http://www.cityam.com/231501/world-econ ... st-economy

Which shows the UK as the fifth largest economy in the world, behind Germany, Japan, China and the USA, in that order (Our economy is now over half a trillion dollars above France). By the 2030's, should growth remain relatively stable, expectations were for the UK to overtake Germany and quite possibly Japan as well, putting is only behind China and the USA (Who are also likely to have swapped by that point), who both have significantly larger populations and landmasses. The main concern is that the EU exit uncertainty could be the biggest threat to that growth. Based on that it would make sense to me for the referendum to happen sooner rather than later, as it puts that question to rest once and for all.

I think my biggest surprise though was learning how strong the Japanese economy was. All I seem to hear about Japan news wise is doom and gloom, I had no idea they were the worlds third biggest economy.

They're holding on but not by much more than the skin of a ballhair. Their ageing population seems to be causing them all kinds of problems - there were scare stories doing the rounds as I was leaving last week that they're on the verge of going back into recession.

I know strawberry float all of these kinds of things though, Parksey or Jay or someone who lives in Japan may be able to shed a bit more light on the issue.

Aging population is one of the biggest issues I've heard for Japan. Their economy seems particularly reliant on a highly skilled workforce as, it appears at least, that their economy is heavily reliant on high tech industries and technology exports. Without a skilled younger generation to take over though that's heavily at risk. There's also the cultural differences of how people in Japan work and their work/life balance. I often hear stories of "Nobody leaves until the boss leaves" and "If the boss goes out then everyone goes out so people get very little sleep", but if you suddenly have to start relying on a skilled immigrant workforce with huge cultural differences then that's not really going to work, and you're going to end up with a clash of young immigrant workforce and ageing native workforce with completely incompatible views of how work life should be.

At the moment there is no immigrant work force. Japan is 98% ethnically Japanese, apparently.

Again though, got to disclaim that I know largely strawberry float all about Japan or economics. I'm just going off bits and bobs I read when I was getting ready to go out there.

The raw animal magnetism and sexual charisma of Michael Gove is about to be harnessed by the leave campaign. How can they fail with the backing of this deeply beloved statesman?

Out needed a political heavyweight, however disliked he may be. Farage (and UKIP) is too much of a joke figure.

Tineash wrote:The raw animal magnetism and sexual charisma of Michael Gove is about to be harnessed by the leave campaign. How can they fail with the backing of this deeply beloved statesman?

Finish.Last wrote:

Tineash wrote:The raw animal magnetism and sexual charisma of Michael Gove is about to be harnessed by the leave campaign. How can they fail with the backing of this deeply beloved statesman?

!

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:

Corazon de Leon wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:The latest news reports I could find on the economic questions were these,
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/u ... -1-3984649
http://www.cityam.com/231501/world-econ ... st-economy

Which shows the UK as the fifth largest economy in the world, behind Germany, Japan, China and the USA, in that order (Our economy is now over half a trillion dollars above France). By the 2030's, should growth remain relatively stable, expectations were for the UK to overtake Germany and quite possibly Japan as well, putting is only behind China and the USA (Who are also likely to have swapped by that point), who both have significantly larger populations and landmasses. The main concern is that the EU exit uncertainty could be the biggest threat to that growth. Based on that it would make sense to me for the referendum to happen sooner rather than later, as it puts that question to rest once and for all.

I think my biggest surprise though was learning how strong the Japanese economy was. All I seem to hear about Japan news wise is doom and gloom, I had no idea they were the worlds third biggest economy.

They're holding on but not by much more than the skin of a ballhair. Their ageing population seems to be causing them all kinds of problems - there were scare stories doing the rounds as I was leaving last week that they're on the verge of going back into recession.

I know strawberry float all of these kinds of things though, Parksey or Jay or someone who lives in Japan may be able to shed a bit more light on the issue.

Aging population is one of the biggest issues I've heard for Japan. Their economy seems particularly reliant on a highly skilled workforce as, it appears at least, that their economy is heavily reliant on high tech industries and technology exports. Without a skilled younger generation to take over though that's heavily at risk. There's also the cultural differences of how people in Japan work and their work/life balance. I often hear stories of "Nobody leaves until the boss leaves" and "If the boss goes out then everyone goes out so people get very little sleep", but if you suddenly have to start relying on a skilled immigrant workforce with huge cultural differences then that's not really going to work, and you're going to end up with a clash of young immigrant workforce and ageing native workforce with completely incompatible views of how work life should be.

At the moment there is no immigrant work force. Japan is 98% ethnically Japanese, apparently.

Again though, got to disclaim that I know largely strawberry float all about Japan or economics. I'm just going off bits and bobs I read when I was getting ready to go out there.

At the moment yes, but if their population really does decline as much as the negative reports seem to indicate then they might not have much choice but to start increasing that level of immigrant work force.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if that was used by the out campaign, "Look at Japan, they control their immigration and have an almost entirely native workforce and their economy is bigger than ours!", at least from the UKIP elements.