bear wrote:Grumpy David wrote:
The Euro certainly made the problems of the PIIGS worse than they otherwise would have been had they the normal economic tools available to other countries such as control of their own interest rates, an exchange rate based on their own national economy, the ability to print money and the ability to default with vastly reduced risk of contagion.
I've heard theories like this bandied about a few times during discussions about Ireland's economic crash but I'm not sure how well they hold up. Being in the Euro certainly benefitted me as the value of my savings and wages held up during the crisis even if a greater percentage of my money went on taxes. We've seen with Breixt that the markets simply won't wait for a government to adjust the value of a currency, the markets will do that for them very quickly. Sterling dropped by $0.20 near instantly after the referendum and I'm sure the Irish punt would have taken an absolute battering once the scale of the problems Brian Cowen had caused with his economic policy that was built solely around winning an election. How much flexibility does a government then have if they've got a decimated tax base, massively devalued currency and a huge deficit?
The point of a national currency is that it reflects the market wisdom on the value of it, it's only worth what others are willing to pay for it. When you have widely different economies in different parts of an economic cycle such as the Eurozone, you have to have a one size fits all interest rate and a currency valued on the overall block value which means that the Euro undervalues the German economy and overvalues the Southern European economies. This affects the Eurozone economies in good times and bad times.
Iceland is an economy which had all 3 factors: reduced tax base, reduced currency value and a huge deficit and they've been very successful in returning to growth.
Ireland is the only good example of a PIIG economy recovering well. 10% cut in government spending makes UK austerity look tame & they've had faster growth. Whilst wages weren't affected in your case, for many in Ireland and the other PIIGS, it was actually the mass unemployment that was the issue.