Brexit

@Photek.


When you say 'we' - who are you referring to btw?

Have you canvassed opinion or are you just generalising?

I wouldn't want you to post an opinion and then defend it and then completely retract it in a page or two.

Wouldn't single market access rest on the continuation of free movement? If so it's not going to go down well with the leavers.

lex-man wrote:Wouldn't single market access rest on the continuation of free movement? If so it's not going to go down well with the leavers.

It'll be strawberry floating hilarious though

If we end up paying to access the single market then what we pay will be very interesting considering we had a good deal on EU membership (financial wise). I can only imagine the furor if we pay only slightly less than we currently do but for single market access only.

Lagamorph wrote:

lex-man wrote:Wouldn't single market access rest on the continuation of free movement? If so it's not going to go down well with the leavers.

It'll be strawberry floating hilarious though

It would be worth it just to see the reverse effect - instead of remoaners we'd have...

Brexitears?

I'm starting to think what will happen is that May will admit we're going to pay into the EU exactly what we do now, but she'll try and claim a victory by saying "We got them to cancel the Brexit divorce bill and we've even got the EU to pay us money!" which is basically the same subsidies we already get.
Basically we'll end up in a position of officially 'Not being in the EU' but still being subject to all the same rules and regulations, but not having any say/veto on things.

Strong and stable submissiveness!


SSS.
I like that.

I hope the UK CAN pay into the single market, it'd be hard sell to the Brexiteers but economically it makes sense, but logic seems in short supply at the moment.

Paying into the single market is the only way to avoid throwing the UK economy off a cliff edge, and it might be enough to keep things like EU Passporting and the like in London.

Lagamorph wrote:I'm starting to think what will happen is that May will admit we're going to pay into the EU exactly what we do now, but she'll try and claim a victory by saying "We got them to cancel the Brexit divorce bill and we've even got the EU to pay us money!" which is basically the same subsidies we already get.
Basically we'll end up in a position of officially 'Not being in the EU' but still being subject to all the same rules and regulations, but not having any say/veto on things.

I just can’t see that happening. Not even the most stupid of Leavers are that stupid.

If it comes to that, I can’t see May surviving even to the end of her speech. If somehow she suggested that and survived then I could see May offering another referendum. In, out or May’s middle way. Which would be an utter clusterfuck as the vote would be split all over the place.

If we're paying to stay In the market and allowing freedom of movement - aren't we just like someone using a guest pass at the club?

If we do that it is actually pointless leaving.

Surely?

Lagamorph wrote:I'm starting to think what will happen is that May will admit we're going to pay into the EU exactly what we do now, but she'll try and claim a victory by saying "We got them to cancel the Brexit divorce bill and we've even got the EU to pay us money!" which is basically the same subsidies we already get.
Basically we'll end up in a position of officially 'Not being in the EU' but still being subject to all the same rules and regulations, but not having any say/veto on things.

Although we'd still need the EU to agree with what ever she says. I personally think she'll have a go at the EU, whine about how we can't get everything we want and then threaten to leave without a deal.

Denster wrote:If we're paying to stay In the market and allowing freedom of movement - aren't we just like someone using a guest pass at the club?

If we do that it is actually pointless leaving.

Surely?

Exactly, that’s why I can’t see it happening.

Some sort of EEA membership might work I guess, but it will satisfy nobody. Leavers will feel betrayed, Remainers will wonder what was the point.

Don’t get me wrong, I would take EEA/paying in if that is all that is on the table, but the whole thing will be a farce if that happens.

It would be hilarious to see the prominent Brexit supporters argue against the Swiss and Norway models though.

Denster wrote:If we're paying to stay In the market and allowing freedom of movement - aren't we just like someone using a guest pass at the club?

If we do that it is actually pointless leaving.

Surely?

I think they'd be a few differences. We wouldn't be bound by all the EU law just most of it and we'd lose some advantages like having a say on the direction of the EU. Basically, it's the compromise where nobodies happy.

lex-man wrote:

Denster wrote:If we're paying to stay In the market and allowing freedom of movement - aren't we just like someone using a guest pass at the club?

If we do that it is actually pointless leaving.

Surely?

I think they'd be a few differences. We wouldn't be bound by all the EU law just most of it and we'd lose some advantages like having a say on the direction of the EU. Basically, it's the compromise where nobodies happy.

Which is what we effectively have now with Farage and his cronies doing sweet strawberry float all on a daily basis.

Absolutely.

I read in the Torygraph that basically Gove Boris et al want something like Canada's deal whereas Rudd, Hammond et al favour a Swiss type arrangement.

Hague basically called for May to discuss this and make a decision on what she and her party want and stick to it. Uniting the party and government and then
Focus on achieving it.

That'd be nice.

Chances of it going like that...

I don't see that being likely. The speech will probably be about a transitional arrangement and the settlement.

I would quite happily take single market access though. The thing is a complete shitshow, this is probably the best we can hope for.

Lucien wrote:

Denster wrote:If we're paying to stay In the market and allowing freedom of movement - aren't we just like someone using a guest pass at the club?

If we do that it is actually pointless leaving.

Surely?

The only way I can see May going for that is if it's transitional until the UK/EU has something similar to the Canada/EU deal. However, if she allows freedom of movement to continue there's a good chance she'll be ousted, not least because it would go against the Conservative's own manifesto.

Didn't the Canada/EU deal take years?

Photek wrote:

Lucien wrote:

Denster wrote:If we're paying to stay In the market and allowing freedom of movement - aren't we just like someone using a guest pass at the club?

If we do that it is actually pointless leaving.

Surely?

The only way I can see May going for that is if it's transitional until the UK/EU has something similar to the Canada/EU deal. However, if she allows freedom of movement to continue there's a good chance she'll be ousted, not least because it would go against the Conservative's own manifesto.

Didn't the Canada/EU deal take years?

Yup, around 7 years.

Hexx wrote:

Squinty wrote:Well, there you go. I hope there's more fuss made over this. Probably won't be, and people will defend the thing.

twitter.com/KateHoeyMP/status/909907667031937024

There you go. Scrutinizing Brexit will cause it to fail and it's all remains fault

(Oddly enough this blame game won't apply to Boris or LeaveEU's attack on negioations)

Usually suspects will lap it up though

Brexit only succeeds if you believe in it. It's like Tinkerbell.