The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave

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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain a member of the European Union
186
77%
Leave the European Union
55
23%
 
Total votes: 241
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Errkal
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Errkal » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:10 pm

Moggy wrote:
Errkal wrote:my point is it can't be used as a "Brexit it working" argument


Other than melters on Facebook and news site comments, it really can't be used for that as Brexit hasn't even started yet.


You could probably very loosely make the argument if unemployment is falling that companies have confidence in our future as they are expanding and so it won't necessarily be all doom and gloom. It is however one hell of a leap.
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Rocsteady
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Rocsteady » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:27 pm

I don't think it's that big a leap. After the vote - when we realised that Article 50 wouldn't be invoked immediately - most of us here would still have guessed our economy would be doing much worse than it is for fear of the future.

The pound's still at rock bottom but we should be prepared to give credit where it's due because otherwise arguments cannot be taken seriously; if everything's looking fine on the jobs front yet we still pretend it's disastrous it's incredibly unpersuasive and counter-productive. The news is good and reflects, at worst, a slight positive on what was to be expected from Brexit: jobs haven't yet fallen off a cliff.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Moggy » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:34 pm

Rocsteady wrote:I don't think it's that big a leap. After the vote - when we realised that Article 50 wouldn't be invoked immediately - most of us here would still have guessed our economy would be doing much worse than it is for fear of the future.

The pound's still at rock bottom but we should be prepared to give credit where it's due because otherwise arguments cannot be taken seriously; if everything's looking fine on the jobs front yet we still pretend it's disastrous it's incredibly unpersuasive and counter-productive. The news is good and reflects, at worst, a slight positive on what was to be expected from Brexit: jobs haven't yet fallen off a cliff.


I partially agree with you there. It is certainly too early to tell what the economy is going to do when we leave the EU and we cannot keep saying “Brexit sucks” or “Brexit’s great!” at any positive or negative financial news. Job numbers are reliant on a huge range of factors, Brexit will have a little bit of an impact at the moment but not enough to make any real difference in the totals.

But, I think the value of the pound is different, that dropped off of the cliff as soon as the referendum result was announced and has barely climbed since. With that we can actually see and pinpoint an effect on the market of the uncertainty of Brexit.
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Rocsteady
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Rocsteady » Wed Mar 15, 2017 2:43 pm

Yeah tell me about it man, I have lost - and continue to lose - stacks of money because of the utterly dire exchange rate. Total shite.
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Squinty
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Squinty » Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:32 pm

Garth wrote:So British unemployment is at its lowest rate in 41 years when we're supposedly flooded with foreigners stealing British jobs.

While we're still in the EU too!


I would actually like a breakdown on what is included in this figure. I'm sceptical as to whether it doesn't include the amount of people on shitty zero hour contracts.
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KK
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by KK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:44 am

Some more investment in Brexit Britain...

BBC News wrote:Japanese carmaker Toyota is to invest almost a quarter of a billion pounds in its UK operations.

Toyota says it will invest £240m to upgrade the Burnaston plant near Derby to enable production of vehicles using its new global manufacturing system.

The carmaker says the investment will improve the plant's competitiveness and promote UK supply chain efficiencies.

Toyota has been making cars in the UK since 1992. The Burnaston plant makes the Auris and the Avensis models.

Last year, the plant manufactured around 180,000 vehicles. Most are exported to the EU and elsewhere in the world.

The Burnaston plant, together with Toyota's engine plant at Deeside in North Wales, employ about 3,400 workers.

The government is also providing £21.3m in funding for training, research and development and enhancements of the plants environmental performance.

In January, the UK car industry trade body, the SMMT, indicated that uncertainty around Brexit and the UK's future trading arrangements had hit investment in the sector.

It said that total committed investment announcements in the automotive sector in 2016 were approximately £1.66bn across a number of companies. This figure was down from £2.5bn in 2015.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269
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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Rex Kramer » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:04 am

Looks like at least the car industry has secured a good brexit deal.
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Qikz
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Qikz » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:35 am

Most are exported to the EU and elsewhere in the world.


I'd love to see companies want to do this with WTO Tarriffs.
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KK
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by KK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:38 am

That and the banking industry will have the government bending over backwards to placate them no matter what happens.

In the last few months we've had all the heavy hitters commit to various things (Dyson, McDonald's, GlaxoSmithKline, Apple, Google, Facebook, Nissan) but we're not privy to the all important tax arrangements. Some of this stuff is hardly a token gesture - McDonald's for example is moving their entire EU operation over here (i.e. shifting its tax domicile from Luxembourg to the UK). You delve deeper, like with a lot of these companies, and the reason is clear: tax. Our corporation tax currently hovers at 20% - but will likely be reduced further outside of the EU - compared with a whopping 35% in the likes of the USA, and 33% in France and Germany. The EU is also investigating McDonald's tax affairs, and could order them to pay out $500m in back taxes.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Moggy » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:44 am

Qikz wrote:
Most are exported to the EU and elsewhere in the world.


I'd love to see companies want to do this with WTO Tarriffs.


I would imagine that big international companies have been given assurances on tax rates. Sure they will probably get hit with tariffs but the tax savings will probably more than make up for it.
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KK
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by KK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 10:55 am

Big business won't be the losers out of Brexit, that's for damn sure. You're not having all this investment, particularly from notorious profit merchants such as Apple, if they all think this is going to be a disaster...for them. It'll be places like Cornwall and various seaside towns like THANET, JANET and those that rely heavily on EU subsidies that are going to hurt the most because the UK government can't possibly match it.
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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Rex Kramer » Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:01 am

And the rest of us whose taxes will have to go up to compensate for the reduction in income from corporate tax.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Moggy » Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:07 am

KKLEIN wrote:Big business won't be the losers out of Brexit, that's for damn sure. You're not having all this investment, particularly from notorious profit merchants such as Apple, if they all think this is going to be a disaster...for them. It'll be places like Cornwall and various seaside towns like THANET, JANET and those that rely heavily on EU subsidies that are going to hurt the most because the UK government can't possibly match it.


Exactly.

At the moment Cornwall and the like will be saying it is worth it "to get out of the club". We will see how they feel in 5 years time when they really start feeling the result of their actions.
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KK
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by KK » Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:12 am

There are 2 ways bugger-all corporation tax can work. In an ideal world it would lead to a big increase in higher paying, higher skilled jobs to compensate or the sheer number of companies moving here equals the same amount of overall tax as it did previously.

But are we all convinced it will? Probably not...the worst case scenario is we just end up with less money to play with; so either public services like the NHS get cut or our council tax goes up (another convenient area in which the government of the day can divert blame onto Labour and the Lib Dems).
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Snowcannon
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Snowcannon » Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:25 pm

KKLEIN wrote:Some more investment in Brexit Britain...

BBC News wrote:Japanese carmaker Toyota is to invest almost a quarter of a billion pounds in its UK operations.

Toyota says it will invest £240m to upgrade the Burnaston plant near Derby to enable production of vehicles using its new global manufacturing system.

The carmaker says the investment will improve the plant's competitiveness and promote UK supply chain efficiencies.

Toyota has been making cars in the UK since 1992. The Burnaston plant makes the Auris and the Avensis models.

Last year, the plant manufactured around 180,000 vehicles. Most are exported to the EU and elsewhere in the world.

The Burnaston plant, together with Toyota's engine plant at Deeside in North Wales, employ about 3,400 workers.

The government is also providing £21.3m in funding for training, research and development and enhancements of the plants environmental performance.

In January, the UK car industry trade body, the SMMT, indicated that uncertainty around Brexit and the UK's future trading arrangements had hit investment in the sector.

It said that total committed investment announcements in the automotive sector in 2016 were approximately £1.66bn across a number of companies. This figure was down from £2.5bn in 2015.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39289269


The article says:
i) The Govt contributed a £21.3m sweetener (would this have been required without brexit?)
ii) Continued tariff-and-barrier free access will be vital to future success (i.e. not hard brexit)
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lex-man
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by lex-man » Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:57 pm

So car makers have invested almost a billion less into the UK in 16 than 15 according oto hthe last paragraph.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Moggy » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:11 pm

So May is ruling out a Scottish referendum. It will be fun to see how the SNP respond.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39293513
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Lagamorph
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Lagamorph » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:13 pm

Moggy wrote:So May is ruling out a Scottish referendum. It will be fun to see how the SNP respond.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39293513

I don't think she's ruling it out, she seems to be saying "Not right now"


But Mrs May said it would be "unfair" to hold a vote until the UK's future relationship with the EU became clear.

It's a valid point really. It'd be better to hold a referendum when the facts are known.
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Moggy
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Moggy » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:17 pm

Lagamorph wrote:
Moggy wrote:So May is ruling out a Scottish referendum. It will be fun to see how the SNP respond.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-39293513

I don't think she's ruling it out, she seems to be saying "Not right now"


But Mrs May said it would be "unfair" to hold a vote until the UK's future relationship with the EU became clear.

It's a valid point really. It'd be better to hold a referendum when the facts are known.


She's ruling it out on the timescale that the Scottish government wanted. Better?

I'm not so sure she is making a valid point, it's more likely she is desperate to avoid this scenario:

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Garth
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PostRe: The EU Referendum: The UK votes Leave
by Garth » Thu Mar 16, 2017 1:25 pm

$1.18 per £1 when I went to pay for something on PayPal today :dread:
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