jawafour wrote:Moggy wrote:Jawa, I think we view this from a light year away from each other. I like your optimism but I just don't share it.
I'm not so sure, Moggy! Sure, there is no doubt that we have differing views on the possible success (or not!) of the change but,
in terms of the values you've spoken of, they would appear to tie up with mine pretty much.
That’s why I think we are only a light year apart and not an entire galaxy.
From my point of view I cannot see many, if any, positives from Brexit. Let’s break it down a bit.
Trade: I am not silly enough to think that all trade will stop as soon as Britain leaves the EU, but I am also not silly enough to think “We can do a deal with China and/or America and it’ll all be fine”. Trade deals are massively complex (Trump thinks it will be easy, but he’s a liar) and take YEARS. It will be at least 2019 until we can sit around the table and start negotiating with other countries. Add on at least another 5 years to do a deal. In a best case scenario we are looking at 2024 before any deal is signed. And that’s assuming that the deal would be beneficial to us, that the deal doesn’t collapse, that the deal replaces what we lose from the EU.
All the while our economy will be suffering from trade barriers and tariffs being introduced with our largest trading partners in the EU.
I can’t see this being anything but a disaster. Especially when you remember how shaky our economy is at the moment anyway.
Movement of people: People will still be able to go on holiday and visit other countries, but the door is going to be slammed shut on the system we are currently used to where we can easily pack up and move to another European country. For decades now we have had the right and the ability to just decide to move to France or Spain or Italy or Germany if we wanted to. That right is being taken away from us.
On the other side, EU citizens will no longer be able to come to the UK to live and work. Which sounds great to people like Farage, but we need those people. As an example. We are already we are seeing that fruit farmers are going to be unable to collect their harvests due to a lack of fruit pickers. We are seeing a massive drop from the EU for applications to the NHS. For those EU citizens that are already here, we are seeing fear and uncertainty as they don’t know if they will be allowed to stay.
And for what?
Laws and regulations: While the UK might not have full control over every law and regulation, does that matter? What EU laws/regulations are there that have had a negative impact on Britain?
As things stand, we are an equal member of the EU and have an equal say in the laws/regulations that are passed. We can veto anything big.
In future we are going to be sat on the sidelines, with no say at all in what those laws and regulations are. That might sound like Britain taking back control, but we really will not be in many areas. To trade with the EU, we will be expected to adhere to their minimum standards. EU regulations will then actually be dictating to us what we can and can’t do if we want to be able to sell goods and services to them. And we will have absolutely no say in what those regulations are.
I half understand the point that it better to make your own laws, but that simply doesn’t work in the modern world. We are a globalised planet now, we have to follow rules, laws and regulations set by all sorts of organisations. The UN, NATO and the WTO to name just three.
Any actual “British laws” we make are going to end up being things we could do anyway. Because we can not risk losing EU trade.
Our standing in the world – We are no longer living in the 1800s, Britain is no longer a superpower. As things stand we are a big fish in a big pond, membership of the EU gives us a huge voice in the world. On our own we will be a small island off of the coast of France. We are likely to remain a rich and powerful nation, but we are not so rich or so powerful that anybody really needs to listen to us.
Our image is going to suffer, Trump might love that we are leaving the EU, but Trump is an idiot. The rest of the world doesn’t really understand why we are leaving (nor does half of this country!). And our governments repeated use of words like “No deal is better than a bad deal”, “We will have our cake and eat it” and “We will walk away without paying” hardly puts us in a good light with the rest of the world.
I think Britain outside of the EU will lose a massive amount of respect and a huge amount of confidence. You might think China will be desperate to do a deal with us, it will be more like we will be desperate to deal with them and it is not that likely that the Chinese are going to give us amazing terms.
General miscellany: The rise in hatred towards foreigners is terrifying to me. I know you agree on this, but it cannot be understated how much bile there is out there towards foreign born people. “Why are you still here”, “We voted to get rid of you” etc. I don’t think all Leave voters are racists, but I absolutely guarantee that Leave wouldn’t have won without the racists. Winning a vote with racist support should be worrying to anybody.
There are left wing Leave supporters of course (Corbyn being the most famous!), but it’s generally a hard right movement. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage were the heads of the two Leave campaigns and I don’t believe that what Boris and Nigel want for the country is going to be good for the country as a whole.
I am droning on now and have written far more than I meant to.
I guess my overall view is that I have always been happy to be a part of the EU, it brings Europe together and makes us part of something bigger than just the UK. And it’s all being taken away from us based mainly on mistruths, lies and racism. And that depresses me.