Moggy wrote:captain red dog wrote:Moggy wrote:captain red dog wrote:Moggy wrote:You’ve missed out that he said it is because the rest of the world is doing better than expected and also this crucial paragraph:
But he argued that far from "changing his mind" on the economic effects of Brexit, the question now for the UK was how much better the country could be doing without the uncertainty over its relationship with the European Union.
Right, but that's a significant change in tone from the remain side. Until now we have been told that Brexit will be an absolute disaster. Now its a case of "well, we'd be doing slightly better in the EU".
For the record though, I don't personally put much stock in that report as economic predictions are a risky business.
It’s not a significant change from the Remain side. First of all, one person doesn’t speak for every Remainer. That’s like me claiming that everything Farage says represents your opinion as well.
Secondly the economic prediction there is not a victory for the Leave side. It says that we are suffering economically because of Brexit and that it’ll likely get worse. The only thing saving us is that the rest of the world is doing well - that’s not a very positive statement of where leaving will take us.
OK, it's a significant change from a voice within the Remain side.
On the topic of the rest of the world doing well, yes that's true and we are benefitting from it. But on the flip side, when the rest of the world does badly like it did during the great recession, we were still strawberry floated even from within the EU.
Is it a significant change from that one Remainer? What was his opinion up to now and how has it changed?
Yes a global recession will strawberry float us up if we are still in the EU. Now imagine it when we are outside the EU.
It states in the BBC article "I asked him whether his optimistic forecasts now revealed that he, and many economists, had simply been too pessimistic about the effects of a Brexit vote.
"I'm almost embarrassed to accept that it might sound like that," Lord O'Neill replied."
On the subject of where we would be during a recession outside of the EU, I'm not sure if any estimates have been done. From a layman point of view, if we are 3% off during a boom, I wonder if it would track similar during a bust?