Brexit

Grumpy David wrote:I am fine with real Brexit not fake Brexit. Not much point leaving the EU if we then have to pay into it and obey all the rules and can't control immigration levels. It's remaining in all but name.

Thought this was quite interesting:



Britain’s contribution is more than the total net contribution of the 26 other EU states combined. Will be interesting to see how stopping the gravy train will affect the EU. Everyone else has to jack up their budgets or will the EU finally have to cut back?

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Trump says we're doing great after Brexit, we are great people, the queen is great, everything's great.

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Trump says we're doing great after Brexit, we are great people, the queen is great, everything's great.

Return_of_the_STAR wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

Trump says we're doing great after Brexit, we are great people, the queen is great, everything's great.

Theresa May has welcomed Donald Trump's promise of a "quick" free trade deal after the UK leaves the EU.

In an interview with MP Michael Gove for The Times newspaper, the President-Elect said his administration would "work very hard" to get a trade deal "done quickly and done properly".

The billionaire Republican praised the Brexit vote as a demonstration that British people "want their own identity".

In contrast to Barack Obama, who said the UK would be at the "back of the queue" for trade talks, Mr Trump made clear a deal with Britain would be a priority for his administration.

Responding to the comments made to the former Justice Secretary, who interviewed Mr Trump in his capacity as a Times columnist, Mrs May's spokeswoman said: "We welcome the commitment from the President-Elect to engage with the UK on this, to work together to agree a deal quickly.

"That highlights one of the opportunities of the UK leaving the EU."

Mr Trump's overture will be welcomed by Number 10 ahead of Mrs May's big speech on Brexit on Tuesday.

The President-elect spoke to the prominent Leave campaigner in his New York office - making Mr Gove the second British politician, and the first MP, to get a meeting.

He made clear that, unlike Mr Obama who backed Remain in the referendum, he supported the narrow win for the Leave campaign.

He said: "People, countries, want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity. Brexit is going to end up being a great thing."

The meeting between Mr Trump and former Tory leadership contender Mr Gove is another potentially awkward episode for the Prime Minister, who will not visit the new President in the White House until some weeks from now.

Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage also met Mr Trump last year and while Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson visited the US last week, he only met with members of the incoming administration, including Mr Trump's son-in-law.

Speaking to Sky News on Monday, Mr Gove, a former journalist, who is paid a reported £150,000 a year as a columnist for the newspaper, insisted he was only visiting Mr Trump for the article and not in a "political capacity".

He said Mr Trump had spoken very warmly about Mrs May and his team had got on well with Mr Johnson during his visit.

The UK has defied fears of a slump in the wake of the Brexit vote, forcing the International Monetary Fund to tear up its original gloomy forecast for Britain’s economy.

The Fund had predicted that the UK economy would grow by 1.1pc in 2017. However, on Monday the international body’s economists revised upwards their downbeat assessment, instead predicting Britain would grow by 1.5pc this year.

The 0.4 percentage point upgrade is the largest upward revision the Fund has made to any of the nations or regions it covers in its latest update.



The Fund had already been forced to make a U-turn in October and admit that its forecasts for UK growth in 2016 had been too pessimistic. At the time it remained doubtful about the country's prospects for this year, cutting its prediction from 1.3pc growth to 1.1pc.

Revealing its new forecasts today, the Fund said the upgrade was “mostly account of a stronger than expected performance during the latter part of 2016”.

This indicates that doom-laden predictions of Britain’s economy shuddering to a halt because of the country’s decision to vote leave were wrong.

Action taken by the Bank of England to shore up confidence after the vote, such as cutting interest rates and freeing up funds for banks to lend, helped “maintain confidence”, the Fund has previously conceded.

Over the course of 2016, the UK economy is forecast to have grown by 2pc, the Fund said, making it the fastest-expanding major advanced economy in the world, ahead of Germany at 1.7pc, the US at 1.6pc, Canada and France at 1.3pc and Italy and Japan both at 0.9pc. The EU bloc as a whole is expected to record growth of 1.6pc for last year. The global growth figure for 2016 was 3.1pc - stable with earlier predictions.

The update from the IMF comes ahead of a key speech by Theresa May on Tuesday about how the Government plans to move forward with Brexit plans.

As markets opened today, the pound tumbled to its lowest level since October's "flash crash" on speculation that the Prime Minister will push for a "hard Brexit" that will see Britain lose its single market access, sending sterling down 1.4pc against the dollar in early dealing to below $1.20. The currency has fallen almost a fifth against the dollar since the referendum.

Maury Obstfeld, IMF director of research, warned that in the long term Brexit was "likely to be negative" for the UK, creating the potential to reduce output.

"There is quite a bit of uncertainty over what form separation will take, how long it will take, the transitional agreements which will be put in place," he said. "This has created uncertainty about outcome."

A "quick resolution" to Britain's new relationship with the EU would be a "good thing" Mr Obstfeld added, but cautioned that trade barriers and staff shortages caused by any immigration controls are key risks for the UK.

"We recognise there will be disruption to trading relationships. The UK economy has become integrated with EU - there will be definite transitional costs," he said. "Hard Brexit restricts the flow of labour and one that thing that drives growth in the UK economy has been an increase in the labour supply."

The Treasury welcomed the IMF's upgrade. “The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong, and the IMF forecasts confirm their view that the UK was the fastest-growing major advanced economy last year," a spokesman said. "The Autumn Statement reaffirmed the government’s commitment to return the public finances to balance as soon as practicable, while providing flexibility to support the economy as we exit the EU.”

Looking ahead, the IMF is now forecasting Britain’s economy will grow 1.4pc in 2018, 0.3 percentage points down on its earlier prediction of 1.7pc, against advanced economies growing by 2.0pc, up from 1.9pc expansion the year before.

Singling out potential dangers to economic growth, the Fund warned that:

Recent political developments “highlight a fraying consensus” about the benefits of cross-border economic integration, adding this could have an “immediate toll”;
Advanced economies could see growth and inflation “permanently lowered” as impaired bank balance sheets restrain economies;
Large emerging economies still have “underlying vulnerabilities” that make them fragile to external shocks.

Donald Trump's protectionist policies were a particular concern, according to the IMF. The US president elect has said that he wants to see major changes in how US-China trade operates, with more American goods being bought by the developing economy to make the relationship more balanced. Some have seen this as a potential trigger for a trade war.

Mr Obstfeld called such "trade disruption" an important risk to global economic growth should it happen but played down its likelihood.

"We think countries will realise these actions are not in their own self-interest with the threat of reprisals," he said, referring to the tit-for-tat imposition of import levies. "An outbreak of a trade war would be quite disruptive."

Meanwhile the IMF said China, the world's second-largest economy, should expand by 6.5pc this year, up by 0.3 percentage points from the agency's last forecast in October.

However, that growth is supported by heavy government spending and rapid expansion of credit, which "raises the risk of a sharper slowdown", the IMF said.

Garland Twinkleballs wrote:I don't know how many times it needs to be said, but let's make it as clear as possible.

BREXIT HASN'T HAPPENED YET

Garland Twinkleballs wrote:I don't know how many times it needs to be said, but let's make it as clear as possible.

BREXIT HASN'T HAPPENED YET

Grumpy David wrote:Yes, but we were warned of immediate negative consequences. Remember the emergency budget George Osborne mentioned? There were plenty of warnings.

The market knows Brexit is happening. The individual knows Brexit is happening. Market confidence doesn't seem to care. My stock and shares ISA has also continued to reach record highs which will reassure Moggy.