Brexit

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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain a member of the European Union
222
80%
Leave the European Union
57
20%
 
Total votes: 279
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KK
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PostRe: Brexit
by KK » Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:06 am

Not all doom and gloom...

BBC News wrote:Sales of British salmon helped the UK export a record amount of food and drink in the first half of the year, according to industry figures.

Exports of the fish jumped more than 53% by value to £408m, the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said.

UK food and drink exports rose 8.5% to £10.2bn, helped by the fall in the pound after last year's Brexit vote.

Whisky remained the top export, while salmon was second and beer rose to third after it overtook chocolate.

The pound has fallen sharply against the dollar and euro since the UK voted to leave the EU in June last year, giving a boost to UK exports as they have become relatively cheaper.

However, the weaker pound has also pushed up costs for British businesses that bring in food and raw materials from abroad, the FDF said.

It said the UK's food and drink trade deficit - the difference between how much the UK imports and exports - widened 16% to £12.4bn over the period.

The FDF warned that without a favourable trade deal with the EU, British exports could become less competitive.

Two of the biggest importers of UK food and drink are Ireland and France.

If there is no deal and World Trade Organization (WTO) tariffs with the EU are brought in, "food and drink would face significantly higher tariffs than most other products," an FDF spokesman said.

However, the free market think tank, the Institute for Economic Affairs, said it would not be a "disaster" if the UK failed to strike a deal with the EU.

Jamie Whyte, IEA research director, said: "In fact, we could unilaterally eliminate all import tariffs, which would give us most of the benefits of trade and export to the EU under the umbrella of the WTO rules."

A UK government spokesman said it wanted to reach a deal with the EU "allowing for the most frictionless trade including in food and drink as possible".

In the first half of the year, UK food and drink exports rose faster to EU countries, up 9%, than to countries outside the EU, with growth of 7.6%.

But the market which saw the most growth in the first half was South Korea, up 77%, in the main due to beer exports.

Food Minister George Eustice said: "We have ambitious plans to produce and export more of our fabulous foods around the world and more
businesses are trying exporting for the first time.

"Last week we announced further market access to China for pork producers and UK beef will soon be heading to the Philippines. We will continue to work with industry to open new opportunities."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40963631#

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Photek
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PostRe: Brexit
by Photek » Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:10 am

A devalued pound is going to help exports.

Financial folk are expecting Euro/Pound parity in 6months or so.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:26 am

KK wrote:Not all doom and gloom...

BBC News wrote:The FDF warned that without a favourable trade deal with the EU, British exports could become less competitive.

Two of the biggest importers of UK food and drink are Ireland and France.

If there is no deal and World Trade Organization (WTO) tariffs with the EU are brought in, "food and drink would face significantly higher tariffs than most other products," an FDF spokesman said.


Just remember, they need us more than we need them!

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KK
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PostRe: Brexit
by KK » Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:21 pm

BBC News wrote:Visits to UK rise amid fall in pound

The number of visitors to the UK rose to 3.5 million in June, up 7% from the same month last year, according to official figures.

The number of visitors from North America shot up by 34%.

While in the UK, the visitors spent £2.2bn, a rise of 2%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

The increase comes as the weak pound makes the UK more affordable for visitors, but also follows terror attacks in London and Manchester.

Meanwhile, UK residents took a June record of 7.2 million trips abroad, up 4%.

However, with the fall in the value of sterling putting them at a disadvantage, the amount they spent leapt by 15% to £4.6bn.

The big increase in visitors from North America, from 483,000 in June of last year to 650,000 this year, was "clearly buoyed by the particularly sharp drop of the pound against the dollar since mid-2016", according to Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club.

The number of visitors from Europe rose by 2% to 2.241 million.

'Key driver' of growth'

The best month so far this year was April, with 3.7 million visitors coming to the UK - up 19% from a year earlier.

Over the April-to-June quarter the number of visitors from overseas rose to 10.75 million, up 8% from the same period a year earlier.

But while holiday visits were up by 20% to 4.7 million over the same three months, business visits were down by 4% at 2.4 million.

VisitBritain director Patricia Yates said: "Tourism is one of Britain's most valuable export industries and this continued growth demonstrates the industry's increasing importance as a key driver of economic growth across our nations and regions."

By Rob Young, business reporter

The weaker value of the pound since the Brexit referendum vote means that the UK is now a much cheaper destination than it used to be.

Many mainland Europeans, Americans and Chinese people are taking advantage of that.

That's clear from the cacophony of different languages and accents outside Buckingham Palace, and on the streets around the Palace of Westminster.

"It's a little more economical than it was a few years ago," says one visiting American tourist.
Meanwhile, a German man said the euro-pound rate has "made me quite happy".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972410

I'm sure the 4 NFL games, in addition to the NBA, will will also help in the dismal winter months.

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PostRe: Brexit
by Buffalo » Fri Aug 18, 2017 3:40 pm

It must be nice to be able to afford stuff in this country.

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PostRe: Brexit
by Rocsteady » Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:45 pm

Not sure I posted this in another thread too but been in contact with a Dutch firm who loved my cv and were looking for a native English speaker but now require their employees to already have a residency permit thanks to the uncertainty of free movement/visa stipulations post-Brexit. So thanks for that leave voters.

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PostRe: Brexit
by KK » Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:12 pm

The Daily Mail are reporting tomorrow that a number of Tory MPs are demanding that Big Ben bong us out of the EU at midnight on 31st March 2019.

I think they've been smoking a bong...

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Squinty
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PostRe: Brexit
by Squinty » Fri Aug 18, 2017 10:19 pm

Buffalo wrote:It must be nice to be able to afford stuff in this country.


So true :lol:

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PostRe: Brexit
by Squinty » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:59 am



Might be interesting to some.

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PostRe: Brexit
by andretmzt » Sun Aug 20, 2017 3:07 pm

The Grauniad wrote:Brexit: Davis urges Brussels rethink on trade and withdrawal talks at same time.

Brexit secretary argues talks so far prove it is impossible to settle withdrawal issues with no sense of future UK-EU ties.

The Brexit secretary, David Davis, is urging Brussels to revisit the government’s proposal to kick off discussions on Britain’s future relationship with the EU alongside withdrawal talks.

Negotiations are to resume in just over a week’s time in Brussels, amid growing concern in government that at the current pace it may be impossible to open trade talks until the end of the year.

The EU has always insisted that key aspects of Britain’s withdrawal – including the principles of a financial settlement, the future of EU citizens living in the UK and the status of Northern Ireland – be dealt with before talks on a new trade deal can begin.

Davis initially suggested the timetabling of talks would be “the row of the summer”, with Britain pressing to begin discussing the future relationship from the start. When negotiations began formally after the general election, he appeared to have conceded that the EU’s approach was acceptable.

But in an article in the Sunday Times, he reopened the debate, arguing that the talks so far have exposed the fact that it is impossible to settle some of the withdrawal questions without a sense of what the future relationship between Britain and the EU will be.

Pointing out that the government had published two papers last week, on customs arrangements and Northern Ireland – the former a “partnership” issue, the latter due to be settled in withdrawal talks – Davis said: “This highlighted a fundamental question about the structure of those hugely important negotiations. All along, the UK has argued that talks around our withdrawal cannot be treated in isolation from the future partnership we want.

“In fact, I firmly believe the early rounds of the negotiations have already demonstrated that many questions around our withdrawal are inextricably linked to our future relationship.

“Nowhere is that point truer than on the question of Northern Ireland. It is simply not possible to reach a near-final agreement on the border issue until we’ve begun to talk about how our broader future customs arrangement will work.”

He added: “There is real value in discussing a few issues upfront. Doing so should allow us to give businesses and citizens the certainty they need.”

Davis reiterated that Britain still hoped to achieve sufficient progress on the withdrawal issues to allow both sides to “move swiftly on” to the future partnership aspect of the talks.

He said that with the government aiming at a deal that would minimise or even remove the need for customs checks at the border with the EU, it hoped it may not need distinct “separation arrangements” in some areas.

“Both sides need to move swiftly on to discussing our future partnership, and we want that to happen after the European council in October,” Davis said.

Brussels appears unlikely to look kindly on Britain’s request, since the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has a formal negotiating mandate agreed by all 27 member states, which limits his flexibility. Britain hopes EU leaders will agree at the October summit that sufficient progress has been made to move on to discussing a future free-trade deal.

If talks on this new partnership do not start until December, or even the new year, it could leave just 10 months for them to be completed.

Britain is not due to leave the EU until the end of March 2019, but when Barnier was appointed he said he wanted to wrap up the talks by October 2018 to allow time for the final deal to be ratified by the European parliament, the European council and the UK parliament.

In an attempt to move the debate forward, the Department for Exiting the European Union has announced that the government will publish five papers in the coming week, on issues including judicial oversight and how to ensure goods continue to move freely across borders when Brexit happens.

Davis said that given the government’s determination to leave the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, repeatedly set out by Theresa May over the past year, oversight of the new “deep and special partnership” would require a “new and unique solution”.

The Liberal Democrat Brexit spokesman, Tom Brake, said: “David Davis promised us ‘the row of the summer’ over the Brexit timetable, only to capitulate weeks later to the EU’s preferred timetable after a disastrous general election for his party which vastly undermined their negotiating position.

“To be now, a couple of months down the line, trying to reopen the issue, reeks of desperation at an approaching economic storm and a cabinet who don’t have a clue"


Link

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KK
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PostRe: Brexit
by KK » Sun Aug 20, 2017 4:28 pm

Squinty wrote:

Might be interesting to some.

Article on that here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40972776

BBC News wrote:Removing all trade tariffs and barriers would help generate an annual £135bn uplift to the UK economy, according to a group of pro-Brexit economists.

A "hard" Brexit is "economically much superior to soft" argues Prof Patrick Minford, lead author of a report from Economists for Free Trade.

He says eliminating tariffs, either within free trade deals or unilaterally, would deliver huge gains.

Other economists say cutting barriers sets off a "race to the bottom".

Economist Monique Ebell from the National Institute of Social and Economic Research (NIESR) says Prof Minford "ignores decades of evidence on how trade actually works".

Ms Ebell's own research showed that if the UK left the single market but made unilateral trade deals with major developing economies and the Anglosphere, it would only claw back about one-third of the 20-30% reduction in lost total trade by leaving the EU.

Ms Ebell says many of the trade barriers that Prof Minford argues to be removed are subtle, non-tariff barriers, such as agreed common standards.

Campaigners against a hard Brexit said the plan amounts to "economic suicide".

Andrew Walker, Economics Correspondent, BBC World Service

It is a counterintuitive idea, but actually the economics textbooks do provide some support for the idea of unilateral trade liberalisation.

This analysis suggests that removing trade barriers produces benefits for consumers and businesses buying components or raw materials that exceed the losses suffered in industries that face stiffer competition.

The downside is that it may take time, perhaps years, for the workers who lose their jobs to find new ones.

Professor Minford has expressed the view that the British economy is flexible enough to cope.

There is also the question of how the new jobs would compare with the old ones.

The mainstream view among economists is that while countries overall may gain from trade liberalisation, there are usually some specific groups that lose.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Sun Aug 20, 2017 5:00 pm

The downside is that it may take time, perhaps years, for the workers who lose their jobs to find new ones.


:lol:

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PostRe: Brexit
by Hexx » Sun Aug 20, 2017 7:27 pm

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/899186279308558337


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Lex-Man
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PostRe: Brexit
by Lex-Man » Sun Aug 20, 2017 9:57 pm

Hexx wrote:

twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/899186279308558337



The Beeb are clearly desperate for some pro brexit coverage.

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Lex-Man
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PostRe: Brexit
by Lex-Man » Sun Aug 20, 2017 10:35 pm

Here's what LSE has to say on the matter.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolic ... f-gravity/

Amusement under late capitalism is the prolongation of work.
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Tafdolphin
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PostRe: Brexit
by Tafdolphin » Mon Aug 21, 2017 2:23 pm

This is 12 minutes but really, really worth watching: the head of the Peterson Institute for International Economy and former BoE policy maker Adam Posen's view on the damage Brexit will do to the UK economy

https://www.facebook.com/PIIEonline/vid ... 628146435/

tl;dr: May is looking to resurrect foreign, economic and immigration policies previously enacted by the Labour governments of the 70s. This will be disastrous for our economy and will set us back 40 years. Corbyn is also hugely to blame as he continues to support Brexit from the sidelines.

Last edited by Tafdolphin on Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PostRe: Brexit
by Hexx » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:02 pm

So the latest papers seem to be another fundamental disagreement between EU/UK

EU (months ago) : "Tell us what you want, because you can't have the customs union or similar"

UK (today): "We'd like the customs union please"

:fp:

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Lex-Man
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PostRe: Brexit
by Lex-Man » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:38 pm

Hexx wrote:So the latest papers seem to be another fundamental disagreement between EU/UK

EU (months ago) : "Tell us what you want, because you can't have the customs union or similar"

UK (today): "We'd like the customs union please"

:fp:


Clearly the plan is just to keep acting like a totally idiot until they get totally frustrated and just concede to all our demands.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:40 pm

lex-man wrote:
Clearly the plan is just to keep acting like a totally idiot until they get totally frustrated and just concede to all our demands.


To be fair that's worked quite well for Britain over the last few hundred years.

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PostRe: Brexit
by bear » Mon Aug 21, 2017 5:54 pm

At this point I'm just working on the assumption that Davis or May bought an absolute shitload of Euros when they went on holiday last year and are just trying to goose the exchange rate until they can convert it all back into Sterling and tell their mates that they made a profit on the transaction.


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