Brexit

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:00 pm

Denster, I don’t think you read my post there properly.

I think she has failed to satisfy anyone by trying to avoid annoying anyone. She has no real clue what she is doing and so is avoiding any major decision, desperately hoping something happens that can save her. It’s laughable, she triggered Article 50 six months or so ago. A quarter of the time has now gone and she (and her team) have done NOTHING.

Your “sorry but it’s not happening that way” post has nothing really to do with what I wrote. I never said it was a delaying tactic to keep us in forever, I’ve said countless times that I don’t think we’ll remain.

I can’t believe I have to say this yet again, but I’ll spell it out to you.

What I’d want to happen:

Scrap the whole stupid thing, tell the Leavers to strawberry float off and move towards a bright future.

Likelihood of this happening: 1.5/10

What I expect to happen:

May will continue floundering until put out of her misery. A new Tory leader will become PM. The 2 year time limit will go by with little if any deal being struck. The EU will decide on whether an extension is granted (I am honestly not sure if they’ll go for it). It’s a 50/50 toss up on whether we ever get any sort of deal (depends who takes over from May), but we’ll be out of the EU by 2022. I expect with no deal or one that isn’t great for the UK (but slightly better than WTO rules).

Likelihood of this happening: 9/10

PostRe: Brexit by **Lex-Man** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:09 pm

I'm kind of happier that we are getting more time. Hopefully it'll be extended again and with another election we'll reach a point where we can stop Brexit. Although this still remains a remote prospect.

It's actually good that she didn't give any more details because the longer the negotiations go on for the lower the chance of Brexit actually happening becomes. If May laid out an actually position that the EU could accept that we would start to move towards Brexit.

That said I do find our government quite embarrassing and the whole thing has been a fiasco from day one. Hopefully somebody will make a descent satire out of it at some point.

PostRe: Brexit by **Hexx** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:10 pm

We've not hormone time yet - the EU have to agree

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:16 pm

lex-man wrote:I'm kind of happier that we are getting more time. Hopefully it'll be extended again and with another election we'll reach a point where we can stop Brexit. Although this still remains a remote prospect.

It's actually good that she didn't give any more details because the longer the negotiations go on for the lower the chance of Brexit actually happening becomes. If May laid out an actually position that the EU could accept that we would start to move towards Brexit.

That said I do find our government quite embarrassing and the whole thing has been a fiasco from day one. Hopefully somebody will make a descent satire out of it at some point.

It can only be extended with the agreement of the European Council.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/get ... anguage=EN

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

The European Council is the heads of state of the other 27 countries. To grant an extension they would have to unanimously agree.

In other words, just one country saying no would mean we get no extension at all.

PostRe: Brexit by **Rocsteady** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:49 pm

Moggy wrote:
lex-man wrote:I'm kind of happier that we are getting more time. Hopefully it'll be extended again and with another election we'll reach a point where we can stop Brexit. Although this still remains a remote prospect.

It's actually good that she didn't give any more details because the longer the negotiations go on for the lower the chance of Brexit actually happening becomes. If May laid out an actually position that the EU could accept that we would start to move towards Brexit.

That said I do find our government quite embarrassing and the whole thing has been a fiasco from day one. Hopefully somebody will make a descent satire out of it at some point.

It can only be extended with the agreement of the European Council.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/get ... anguage=EN

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

The European Council is the heads of state of the other 27 countries. To grant an extension they would have to unanimously agree.

In other words, just one country saying no would mean we get no extension at all.

strawberry floating democratic EC.

PostRe: Brexit by **Rocsteady** » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:50 pm

I like how commentators online are always so sure about everything. That guy from the Mail should put his life savings into currency trading since the pound is undervalued by 15%.

PostRe: Brexit by **Hexx** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 12:31 am

twitter.com/marta_vokshi/status/911336928045408257

PostRe: Brexit by **Squinty** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:39 am

EU calling for more clarity. Surprise.

PostRe: Brexit by **Oblomov Boblomov** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 7:40 am

Moggy wrote:What I’d want to happen:

Scrap the whole stupid thing, tell the Leavers to strawberry float off and move towards a bright future.

Believe :datass:

The only issue with that is how do you deal with the 1/3? Unfortunately they wouldn't actually just strawberry float off.

PostRe: Brexit by **Lex-Man** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 8:57 am

Rocsteady wrote:
Moggy wrote:
lex-man wrote:I'm kind of happier that we are getting more time. Hopefully it'll be extended again and with another election we'll reach a point where we can stop Brexit. Although this still remains a remote prospect.

It's actually good that she didn't give any more details because the longer the negotiations go on for the lower the chance of Brexit actually happening becomes. If May laid out an actually position that the EU could accept that we would start to move towards Brexit.

That said I do find our government quite embarrassing and the whole thing has been a fiasco from day one. Hopefully somebody will make a descent satire out of it at some point.

It can only be extended with the agreement of the European Council.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/get ... anguage=EN

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

The European Council is the heads of state of the other 27 countries. To grant an extension they would have to unanimously agree.

In other words, just one country saying no would mean we get no extension at all.

strawberry floating democratic EC.

Yup, but asking increases the likelihood. Also I think most countries will want the time to sort out procedures to deal with the UK post brexit.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:25 am

lex-man wrote:
Rocsteady wrote:
Moggy wrote:
lex-man wrote:I'm kind of happier that we are getting more time. Hopefully it'll be extended again and with another election we'll reach a point where we can stop Brexit. Although this still remains a remote prospect.

It's actually good that she didn't give any more details because the longer the negotiations go on for the lower the chance of Brexit actually happening becomes. If May laid out an actually position that the EU could accept that we would start to move towards Brexit.

That said I do find our government quite embarrassing and the whole thing has been a fiasco from day one. Hopefully somebody will make a descent satire out of it at some point.

It can only be extended with the agreement of the European Council.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/get ... anguage=EN

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

The European Council is the heads of state of the other 27 countries. To grant an extension they would have to unanimously agree.

In other words, just one country saying no would mean we get no extension at all.

strawberry floating democratic EC.

Yup, but asking increases the likelihood. Also I think most countries will want the time to sort out procedures to deal with the UK post brexit.

I think most will, but it only takes one to scupper it. Can we go a few weeks without pissing off any of the 27 countries?

PostRe: Brexit by **Rex Kramer** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:33 am

We could if Boris went on an extended diplomatic mission to Antarctica.

PostRe: Brexit by **Squinty** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:39 am

Oblomov Boblomov wrote:
Moggy wrote:What I’d want to happen:

Scrap the whole stupid thing, tell the Leavers to strawberry float off and move towards a bright future.

Believe

The only issue with that is how do you deal with the 1/3? Unfortunately they wouldn't actually just strawberry float off.

Tame them with fire like the dotards they are :datass:

That old woman on Question Time. :dread:

PostRe: Brexit by **Denster** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:58 am

@Moggy. I do get what you were saying. I appreciate that from your perspective she didn't hit the right beats. what I'm saying she did is -
Recognising you can't please everyone she has clearly mediated for her own party with those who want us out with no deal if necessary and those who want a special or so called soft Brexit. She has obviously been more willing to listen to her own senior MPs and ministers and seems to have struck a bargain between the likes of Hammond and Johnson for example which may stop them sniping at each other and actually muddying the waters.
In short her speech has achieved a little of what she intended and has presented a unified agenda (clearly agreed or compromised on from within). Even if that agenda is just to build a platform for negotiations to begin in earnest.
She has at least delivered two key expectations which are actually caveats.
The paying of the divorce bill whilst maintaining a transition period - where we continue to uphold our EU member obligations.
She has also adopted a problem solving or even conciliatory position - more conducive to a deal being done than her previous no deal rather than bad deal stance.

She has also refused to give in to the likes of Farage and her own rabid eurosceptic.
All this at a time where her position remains precarious.
Personally I think she's done ok. Ok.
She has also clearly demonstrated a greater willingness to listen and has actually shown some leadership.

It's nothing more than about bloody time and a small step in the right direction but I actually believe she deserves a little credit for that.

No doubt that is not a popular opinion in here.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:10 am

It’s not just my perspective Denny, she pleased pretty much nobody.

Leavers want out and they want out now, not a 2 year extension.

Remainers want in and getting an extra 2 years doesn’t change that.

She should pick a side and actually come up with a proper plan.

Her biggest mistake (with the possible exception of the snap election) was triggering Article 50 before they had any idea of what they were going to do. They’ve wasted a quarter of the time limit and thrown away the only real power they had over the EU.

PostRe: Brexit by **Denster** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:24 am

I disagree. She actually started an approach that might get us somewhere. She's took a stance - having listened to her own party and ministers and realised it wasn't going well.

She doesn't have to appease everyone and doesn't want to. She has to deliver Brexit and that has to be with the EU and governments approval or a compromise of some kind.
The leavers and remainers have had their say in the referendum. Brexit is happening but not in the worst and stupidest way.

I'm happier. Not happy but happier. It's a step in the right direction but that direction is Brexit.
Accepting reality is a key component of happiness.

PostRe: Brexit by **Lagamorph** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:28 am

Reply to Theresa May's speech by Guy Verhofstadt, the EU Chief negotiator

Six months after the triggering of article 50, it appears that the position of the UK is becoming more realistic. Finally, the UK Government concedes a transition period will be necessary, as the European Parliament already indicated in its resolution of the 5th of April. But this transition or implementation period can only be a continuation of the EU acquis ('acquis communautaire'); it will be impossible to cherry-pick. This means for example, with regard to citizens rights, that a new registration mechanism for EU citizens going to live and/or work in the UK is out of the question. Equally, oversight by the European Court of Justice needs to be secured for the entire transition period. It can never be allowed for the ECJ to be replaced by another dispute settle mechanism during our future relationship.
The European Parliament has made it very clear from the beginning that for us it is: citizens first. We need to be very cautious, and I want to see how, next week, when the negotiations resume, the UK government intends to guarantee that the rulings of the European Court of Justice will be fully taken on board by UK courts. The protection of the rights of our EU citizens living in Britain must be absolute and beyond any doubt. I repeat that the new "settled status", as proposed by the UK Government, is hugely problematic in that respect as it will create an enormous administrative burden and uncertainty for millions of our citizens.
On the financial settlement, Prime Minister May brought some additional clarifications but also here important questions remain. While on the one hand the UK Government speaks of 'honoring all commitments made during membership', on the other hand the Prime Minister suggests payments will be limited until 2020, while the transition period goes beyond 2020 and some commitments will only produce payments after that date. The UK government will have to come up with concrete proposals next week, during the fourth round of negotiations to bring full clarity.
Apart from citizens' rights and the financial settlement, the EU always made clear that the Irish question is one of our priorities. I didn't hear yet how the UK government wants to avoid a hard border or physical checks on the island of Ireland. This only seems possible if Northern Ireland remains part of the Customs Union.
With regards to the future relationship, I heard a lot about what the UK doesn't want (the single market, the customs union, the EEA or an FTA). I hope to hear from them soon how they see the "deep and special partnership" with the EU. I reiterate our opinion that an association agreement is the preferable framework to shape our future relationship. It is foreseen in the Treaty and can cover all sectors: from trade to research, internal and external security. However, full clarity on the essential elements of the withdrawal agreement and positive steps in the negotiations are needed before the Parliament can assess that sufficient progress has been made to open the negotiations on the future relationship.
The EP Brexit Steering Group together with the EU negotiator will make a full assessment of Prime Minister May's intervention, including the preparation of the next negotiation round next Monday at midday.

TLDR, "Yeah, we told you all this 6 months ago you strawberry floating idiot"

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:34 am

Denster wrote:I disagree. She actually started an approach that might get us somewhere. She's took a stance - having listened to her own party and ministers and realised it wasn't going well.

She doesn't have to appease everyone and doesn't want to. She has to deliver Brexit and that has to be with the EU and governments approval or a compromise of some kind.
The leavers and remainers have had their say in the referendum. Brexit is happening but not in the worst and stupidest way.

I'm happier. Not happy but happier. It's a step in the right direction but that direction is Brexit.
Accepting reality is a key component of happiness.

I’ve accepted reality. It doesn’t make me happier though that we are going ahead with making ourselves poorer and more insular.

PostRe: Brexit by **Denster** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:37 am

Uncertainty is worse.

PostRe: Brexit by **Moggy** » Sat Sep 23, 2017 10:45 am

Denster wrote:Uncertainty is worse.

Theresa May didn’t end uncertainty yesterday. Her speech said bugger all of actual substance, just a few things that she hopes happens and a few things that she doesn’t have the power to make happen.

Moody’s downgraded our credit rating soon after (I am not saying it was solely her speech that did that). Uncertainty is absolutely rife before and after her speech.

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