Not sure if it's being mentioned but we have something of a mini crisis politically over here at the moment, dubious claims relating to an email 2 years ago (I sh*t you not) might lead to the dissolving of our government and an election in late December. We'll know for certain by tomorrow night. Absolutley mental, I blame Sinn Fein and Fine Fail to be honest.
Last edited by Photek on Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
1) NI is allowed to stay in the customs union and a hard sea border is established between NI and the rest of the UK. If this happens Scotland, and most likely Gibraltar, will immediately demand the same arrangement and May will have little valid reason to deny it, but she'll do so anyway. May will be accused of giving in to the EU and will also face being remembered as the Prime Minister who commenced the break up of the United Kingdom. Most likely this will cause the hardcore right to accelerate plans to oust May from power. Even if this scenario comes to pass and Ireland vote to allow trade talks to progress there's a very good chance that other countries in the EU will veto it as they won't want parts of the UK in the customs union while other parts aren't (Everyone seems focused on whether Ireland will use their veto with little attention seemingly being paid to the fact that 26 other countries can also do the same thing). An arrangement like that would allow companies based in England and Wales to just set up cheap, tiny satellite offices in NI/Scotland/Gibraltar to trade through and essentially have tariff free trade via the back door.
2) The entire UK stays in the customs union. Of the 3 possible outcomes this is by far the best one for the country, but also the least likely to occur. The hardcore Brexiters in the Conservatives, along with the right wing press, will fully turn on May and accuse her of giving in to the EU and betraying the will of the people. The hardcore right in the conservatives will accelerate plans to oust May from power asap, even more aggressively than scenario 1.
3) No progress is made and the December deadlines pass with no progress made. This is probably the most likely outcome and likely the one May will be most eager to follow as it allows her to placate the right wing press and the hard right of her party, and so allow her to cling to power for a little longer. The right wing press praise May and loudly declare that the EU will cave in. Come March 2018 the Conservatives will double down and lock the UK onto course for a no deal hard Brexit whilst the EU just continues to maintain the position they've had since the start of negotiations. At this point the real economic fallout of Brexit begins to make itself known as companies begin to implement contingency plans to relocate operations out of the UK, and the pound takes a further drop to below 1 Euro to the pound.
