Brexit

Meep wrote:I think that in some way being in the EU has protected the UK's ego for a long time. It could pretend it was still a superpower, even if that status only came thanks to having a whole continent at their back. This kind of helped avoid having to reconcile with post-imperial reality.

Outside the EU the UK is just a mid-sized country, ranked 27th in GDP per capital. In other words, people need to get used to the idea that they are not the biggest kid on the playground any more. If some of the behaviour in these negotiations are anything to go by it could take a while.

Another reality, related to this, is that trade agreements are rare for a reason. Larger economies tend to impose their will on smaller ones so you need to be damn sure it's worth making the sacrifice for before you sign on the dotted line. I don't think there should be any rush for a trade deal with countries like America. They are powerful, very protectionist and will demand much in return for a deal. We might be better off sticking with things as they are. I would advise the government to look for deals with smaller countries more on a level with the UK first. Their terms are likely to be a lot less difficult and once we have a number of such deals we would no longer be in such a weak position when taking on a giant.

If the UK tries to strike a deal the the US right after leaving it will get steamrollered.

Meep wrote:Actually, I looked up it up and the UK is actually 25th in GDP per capital according to the IMF statistics (different organisations seem to produce different results), so not quite as bad. Iceland is 16th.

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Mail on Sunday wrote:Ex-Marine and serving bodyguard to the Queen is stunned that his French wife of 24 years has been REFUSED when she applied for permanent residency in UK after Brexit vote

An ex-marine and serving bodyguard to the Queen is 'angry and frustrated' after his French wife of 24 years was left fearing for her future right to stay in the UK following the Brexit vote.

Simon Milne MBE, 58, has served in Northern Ireland and Bosnia and is one of 27 Gentlemen at Arms who guard the Queen on royal occasions.

His wife Francoise, 50, applied for a permanent residency card after the Government 'failed to clarify' the future rights of EU nationals living in the UK.

Mrs Milne, who lives in Edinburgh and has three children with her husband, said her application was refused in October as she could not prove she was 'self-sufficient'.

he said she has now been left 'scared and confused' about her future and whether she can remain in the UK.

The couple's MP, the SNP's Deidre Brock (Edinburgh North and Leith), has written to ministers and raised their case in a Commons debate last week.

Mr Milne, who is chief executive of the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, said he finds the decision 'extraordinary'.

He said: 'With the uncertainty around Brexit at the moment my wife decided to apply for permanent residency.

'She has supported me through my career with the Royal Marines and now in my current role.

'I am flabbergasted with this decision, I am angry and frustrated. I can only hope that it is an unintended oversight.'

Mrs Milne said her 'world has been shattered' by the Brexit vote.

She said: 'It felt like I had been cut in half when the vote came back yes, my children were crying.

'I never felt I needed to claim dual nationality before, I could move about freely and work freely, now it feels like a lot of freedom has gone.'

Mrs Milne said she was refused a residency card because she could not prove she was 'self-sufficient'.

She said: 'I do a little bit of upholstery, I never make enough to support myself and rely on my husband.

'They will not take into account that I am married to a British man, that is irrelevant, it's hard to believe.

'I don't know what will happen after 2019, I don't know if there will be time limits on how long I can stay in the country, if I want to leave to see my parents in France I don't know what the rules will be on coming back.

twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY/status/937399998706339842

Whitehall warned it is falling behind in the race to secure post-Brexit free trade agreements

The government is falling behind in the race to replicate the European Union’s existing network of free trade agreements for use by the UK after Brexit, trade groups and leading analysts have warned.

Liam Fox, the International Trade secretary, promised in October that the UK would replicate up to 40 of the EU trade deals to be ready for “one second after midnight” on March 29, 2019 to ensure that there was “no disruption” to trade.

However, trade groups are privately raising alarm bells over the practicality of “rolling over” the EU agreements into bilateral UK deals, warning of a shortage of capacity in Whitehall to tackle what is turning out to be an increasingly complicated issue.

Britain and EU on brink of Brexit divorce deal
Solutions in sight on Northern Ireland and future role of European courts in UK

FT wrote:Britain and the EU are on the brink of sealing a Brexit divorce deal on Monday, as Theresa May travels to Brussels with potential solutions in sight for the two biggest political obstacles to opening trade talks.

Northern Ireland and the future role of European courts in Britain are the most sensitive issues still to be endorsed in a draft joint text that the UK prime minister aims to sign-off over Monday’s lunch with Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president.

Last-minute objections from Northern Irish unionist politicians in Belfast or London are now the main potential deal-breaker, according to diplomats involved in the talks.

A senior Irish official said late on Sunday that they were still awaiting signs of a definitive breakthrough, leaving the agreement hanging in the balance. “As we speak at the moment, this is a very fluid situation. There are intensive contacts back and forth,” the official said.

A provisional deal would represent a momentous turning point for the Brexit talks, ending a nine-month first phase devoted solely to untangling past relations, much to the annoyance of London.

Mrs May has largely bowed to EU demands on the UK paying a financial settlement of €40bn-€60bn net and the rights of EU citizens in Britain, but the final compromises required are politically fraught. EU leaders have warned Mrs May that the Monday meeting is a firm deadline for resolving outstanding issues if she wants to guarantee a “sufficient progress” EU summit on December 14-15.

Negotiations are delicately poised, with the biggest risk remaining the consent of the British cabinet and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party (DUP), Mrs May’s parliamentary ally, to the wording of a proposed compromise on the Northern Ireland border.

France has also raised some late reservations on a proposed compromise relating to the role of European courts in interpreting EU citizen rights — a highly sensitive issue for the British cabinet and some Brexiters. The dispute relates to how UK courts would refer relevant cases to Luxembourg after Brexit.

Ireland is, however, by far the biggest risk for Monday’s talks. The EU side want Mrs May to endorse draft language that would, in effect, acknowledge the need for a unique fallback option for Northern Ireland if EU-UK trade relations make a hard border impossible to avoid. EU and British negotiators are looking to make Irish issues a distinct track in trade talks next year.

In a series of interviews on Sunday, Simon Coveney, the Irish deputy prime minister, stressed that Ireland would not be asking “the impossible” of Mrs May. But in a reference to the DUP, he said: “We can’t have a situation where one party decides what’s acceptable and what’s not.”

Mr Coveney said his preference was a solution to the border issues that “involves all of the UK acting as one”. “But we also have to say that if that is not possible, well then, of course we need to recognise — both governments need to recognise — that Northern Ireland has unique challenges,” he told the BBC.

The DUP is still to declare its hand publicly. Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, on Saturday night stressed she would “not countenance” anything that compromised Northern Ireland’s access to the UK market.

The EU has promised an effective veto next month on the border issue and Leo Varadkar, the Irish prime minister, robustly defended his stance, saying the Irish government was “well on its way to actually achieving what it wanted to achieve”. He will hold a special meeting of his cabinet on Monday to discuss Brexit.

“We’ve been very clear about the wording we’re looking for. Hopefully we’ll be able to finalise that, and if not we’re going to have a difficult day,” said a senior Irish figure.

One senior EU diplomat said an agreement was “difficult but possible between partners who are reasonable”. Noting the political uncertainty in Westminster, the diplomat added that it would be important to see that Mrs May had a “full mandate” to close a deal.

British negotiators feel they are working towards an agreement with a “fair wind” but recognise the political hazards still ahead, including over the future role of European judges in interpreting the withdrawal treaty.

Iain Duncan Smith, a former leader of the UK’s ruling Conservative party, issued a warning on Sunday about a potential agreement on citizens’ rights. Under this, the UK would allow British judges to refer specific cases relating to EU citizens to the European Court of Justice for a “binding interpretation” — but only in rare cases where the Supreme Court does not already have a relevant body of case law.

A group of 30 Eurosceptic figures from a campaign group called Leave Means Leave said on Sunday that the UK should walk away from negotiations unless certain demands were met, including an end to “any jurisdiction” from the ECJ.

Farage defended the arrangement when challenged on BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show. Asked if he would accept the EU pension money, he replied: “Of course I would take it. I have said that right from day one. Why should my family and others suffer even more?”

Theresa May and the Irish government have failed to reach a deal on the crucial Brexit issue of the Northern Ireland border ahead of a crunch meeting on Monday lunchtime with the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker.

Despite intense efforts over the weekend to agree a proposal on how to avoid a hard border in Ireland, Irish officials revealed at midnight on Sunday that “there is still a way to go” to achieve a meeting of minds on the issue.

“The Irish government remains hopeful – but at this stage it is very difficult to make a prediction,” said an official.
Q&A
Why is Dublin opposed to the idea of a hard border?

The failure to seal a deal threatens to delay the progression of the Brexit negotiations to the second phase covering trade and the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

May will meet Juncker with the UK’s final offer on the three main issues in the first round of Brexit talks – the Irish border, citizens’ rights and the financial settlement.

Talks could continue into Wednesday when the European commissioners are due to meet to discuss their recommendation to European leaders on whether “sufficient progress” has been achieved to move talks on to trade and transition arrangements.

May had been given the deadline of Monday 4 December to table the offers before a European council summit on 14 December, when EU leaders will decide if “sufficient progress” has been made to proceed to the next phase.

But although the money and citizens’ rights issues have been mostly resolved, the future arrangement with Ireland has remained a significant obstacle because the British government has yet to offer a firm commitment explaining how it will guarantee avoiding a return to a hard border after Brexit.

For Ireland, and the EU27 as a whole, the problem has become a potential dealbreaker, with Dublin given an effective veto on progress of talks.

Ireland’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister Simon Coveney had said on Sunday morning that Ireland had “no desire” to be a roadblock to progress but said the country wants “concrete” proposals on how a hard border with customs and people checks would be avoided.

Coveney told the broadcaster RTE that Monday was “undoubtedly a very big day in the context of Brexit negotiations” and that “certainly the hope is that those meetings will result in a momentum that can be carried into the leaders’ summit”.

Chances of a deal with British officials had been put at 50:50 on Sunday afternoon, but at midnight Brussels time, officials said an agreement had not been reached.

“Contacts continue at official level in order to reach agreement. There is still a way to go,” said an Irish official. “There must be clarity on the need to avoid regulatory divergence which would lead to the re-emergence of a border.

“A positive outcome to the talks between UK PM May and President Tusk and President Juncker will be very important if we are to make the progress necessary before the European Council,” the Irish official added.

A special meeting of the Irish cabinet has been called for Monday morning in which ministers will get an update.

In London, a government spokesman said: “With plenty of discussions still to go, Monday will be an important staging post on the road to the crucial December council.”

Two hours before Monday’s lunch with May, Juncker is to join the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, along with members of the chamber’s Brexit steering committee, to discuss outstanding issues on the future rights of EU citizens after the UK leaves the bloc.

Although this issue is largely resolved, Juncker requested the meeting to refresh himself on the problems MEPs continue to have with the progress on citizens’ rights, including British resistance to cementing a role for the European court of justice (ECJ) in protecting the status of EU nationals living in Britain.

Beyond the issue of the ECJ, the parliament also wants the UK to drop any charges for EU nationals when they apply for settled status post-Brexit.

They are also insistent that future family members of those living in the UK today should be covered by whatever benefits are dispensed by the withdrawal agreement. The parliament must ratify any treaty on Britain’s withdrawal from the EU before Brexit in March 2019.

May is coming under strong pressure from Tory Brexiters unhappy with some of the compromises that she has already made in the process. Many of her MPs would want to see her abandon Brexit negotiations altogether if the EU summit in December rules against opening trade talks.
Q&A

On Sunday, senior Conservative Brexiters set new red lines for May in the talks with the EU, significantly reducing her chances of getting a deal acceptable to the whole of her party.
The former cabinet ministers Iain Duncan Smith, Owen Paterson, Nigel Lawson and John Redwood said it would be unacceptable for the ECJ to have any jurisdiction over the UK during the planned two-year transition after Brexit.

Duncan Smith set out his objections in an article in the Sunday Telegraph in which he said he particularly opposed a plan for the ECJ to have an ongoing role, beyond the transition, adjudicating on the rights of EU nationals in the UK.
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Paterson, Lawson and Redwood, along with more than 30 other Brexiters, have signed a letter coordinated by the group Leave Means Leave listing seven conditions they say should apply before the UK makes any divorce payment to the EU.

But on Sunday, in a message to Tory Brexiters, the health secretary Jeremy Hunt suggested that if May were brought down, Brexit might not happen. He said: “If we don’t back Theresa May, we will have no Brexit.”

Speaking to BBC1’s Breakfast programme on Monday Paterson, the former environment secretary, insisted the group was “right behind the prime minister”.

“She’s made a very generous offer in Florence, which the European Union were pretty churlish about,” he said.

“All we are doing is restating what we had in the Conservative party manifesto, which was a promise to deliver what the 17.4m people voted for, which was to leave the single market, leave the customs union, and very importantly, leave the ECJ.”

Asked why the ECJ element had to be completed in March 2019, Paterson said it was vital to avoid “some muddled transition for which we’re half in and half out” so the UK could begin forging a post-Brexit future.

Asked about the Irish border issue Paterson, who also spent two years as Northern Ireland secretary, said: “I’m very dismayed by the importance being given to this. I really think this is soluble.”

andretmzt wrote:Apparently on the Andrew Marr Show, Nigel Farage said he will be claiming his EU Pension. Why am I not surprised.

Farage defended the arrangement when challenged on BBC1’s Andrew Marr Show. Asked if he would accept the EU pension money, he replied: “Of course I would take it. I have said that right from day one. Why should my family and others suffer even more?”

Indeed, why should your family suffer. Who gives a strawberry float about everyone else.