Brexit

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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain a member of the European Union
222
80%
Leave the European Union
57
20%
 
Total votes: 279
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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:58 am

DML wrote:
Moggy wrote:
Lagamorph wrote:
Government sources say the UK will not be worse off, and its preferred bespoke trade deal option was not analysed


:fp: :fp: :fp: :fp:


:lol:

It makes complete sense to spend time and money to analyse all the options that you wouldn’t go for and not bother doing it for the option that do you want.


They can't analyse something that doesn't exist.


It's a bespoke trade deal DML, David Davis has worked hard on it! Of course it exists!

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Lagamorph
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PostRe: Brexit
by Lagamorph » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:09 am

It's called "Project Make me an offer"

Lagamorph's Underwater Photography Thread
Zellery wrote:Good post Lagamorph.
Turboman wrote:Lagomorph..... Is ..... Right
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Squinty
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PostRe: Brexit
by Squinty » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:45 am

I wish I lived in London for that march. I'd turn up in the queen's EU costume in response to it.

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit
by Garth » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:46 am

Wait, so basically...

- Soft Brexit with continued access to the single-market = 2% lower growth while giving up control
- Comprehensive free trade agreement = 5% lower growth, does it still include freedom of movement?
- No deal is better than a bad deal = 8% lower growth, AKA what are you doing you stupid strawberry floats!
- Mysterious magical bespoke deal we can't define but is somehow better than a comprehensive free trade agreement and continued access to the single market, and the EU will bend over for us = Rule, Britannia! Britannia, rule the waves!

Wake up UK! :fp:

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 10:50 am

Garth wrote:Wait, so basically...

- Soft Brexit with continued access to the single-market = 2% lower growth while giving up control
- Comprehensive free trade agreement = 5% lower growth, does it still include freedom of movement?
- No deal is better than a bad deal = 8% lower growth, AKA what are you doing you stupid strawberry floats!
- Mysterious magical bespoke deal we can't define but is somehow better than a comprehensive free trade agreement and continued access to the single market, and the EU will bend over for us = Rule, Britannia! Britannia, rule the waves!

Wake up UK! :fp:


The bespoke deal includes unicorns and a multi-trillion pound annual tribute that the EU have to pay the UK because the UK is so great.

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Photek
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PostRe: Brexit
by Photek » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:22 am

Excellent Brexit callers into James O’Brien today. All of them when questioned eventually fell back on being a bit racist. Guy on now is retired in France and votes Brexit for his grand children so JOB pointed out they can’t do what he has and he changed subject.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:23 am

twitter.com/dmreporter/status/958299047558819842



:lol:

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captain red dog
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PostRe: Brexit
by captain red dog » Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:38 pm

DML wrote:Just so everyone's aware, 2% dip in the economy is recorded as recession.

I may have this wrong as I have only read the news reports, and not the report itself, but doesn't the report point to a 2-8% dip in growth? So the economy will still grow but be 2-8% off of where it would be in the EU?

That isn't good of course, but as I said with last week's report about growth dwarfing any Brexit losses, economic predictions are largely varied. The fact we haven't even gone a week and have contrasting headlines on the economic impact bears that out.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 5:52 pm

captain red dog wrote:
DML wrote:Just so everyone's aware, 2% dip in the economy is recorded as recession.

I may have this wrong as I have only read the news reports, and not the report itself, but doesn't the report point to a 2-8% dip in growth? So the economy will still grow but be 2-8% off of where it would be in the EU?

That isn't good of course, but as I said with last week's report about growth dwarfing any Brexit losses, economic predictions are largely varied. The fact we haven't even gone a week and have contrasting headlines on the economic impact bears that out.


The headlines are not contrasting.

The report you refer to suggested that growth would dwarf losses from Brexit was not a proper economic study, it was the opinion of one man. Who based it on global growth, not the UK performing well. And he even said his worry is how much better we could do if it wasn’t for Brexit.

That’s not a positive Brexit story.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:09 pm

Photek wrote:Excellent Brexit callers into James O’Brien today. All of them when questioned eventually fell back on being a bit racist. Guy on now is retired in France and votes Brexit for his grand children so JOB pointed out they can’t do what he has and he changed subject.


I assume it was the Henry Hoover guy? :lol:

twitter.com/lbc/status/958357537245495296


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Meep
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PostRe: Brexit
by Meep » Tue Jan 30, 2018 6:14 pm

I am actually reassured by the estimates for the scale of the damage. It's an improvement over forecasts made in 2016. Obviously I'd refer it if there was to be no damage but you need to take good news where you can these days.

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Garth
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PostRe: Brexit
by Garth » Tue Jan 30, 2018 11:01 pm

twitter.com/labourwhips/status/958460071184388096


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DML
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PostRe: Brexit
by DML » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:06 am

Moggy wrote:
captain red dog wrote:
DML wrote:Just so everyone's aware, 2% dip in the economy is recorded as recession.

I may have this wrong as I have only read the news reports, and not the report itself, but doesn't the report point to a 2-8% dip in growth? So the economy will still grow but be 2-8% off of where it would be in the EU?

That isn't good of course, but as I said with last week's report about growth dwarfing any Brexit losses, economic predictions are largely varied. The fact we haven't even gone a week and have contrasting headlines on the economic impact bears that out.


The headlines are not contrasting.

The report you refer to suggested that growth would dwarf losses from Brexit was not a proper economic study, it was the opinion of one man. Who based it on global growth, not the UK performing well. And he even said his worry is how much better we could do if it wasn’t for Brexit.

That’s not a positive Brexit story.


Come on Captain Red Dog, it's as clear as day what's happening. I know you desperately want this to be fake news, but the truth is far more grave.

The Evening Standard Comment makes it the clearest it can be.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comm ... 53191.html

For me the most telling is the idea a US deal is any predicted to make a fraction of any lost EU deals. That must send shockwaves through you surely? There's literally zero chance of better deals out in the wider world.

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Lagamorph
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PostRe: Brexit
by Lagamorph » Wed Jan 31, 2018 5:14 am

twitter.com/hendopolis/status/958463566096543744



twitter.com/hendopolis/status/958470614846791680


Lagamorph's Underwater Photography Thread
Zellery wrote:Good post Lagamorph.
Turboman wrote:Lagomorph..... Is ..... Right
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captain red dog
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PostRe: Brexit
by captain red dog » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:33 am

Moggy wrote:
captain red dog wrote:
DML wrote:Just so everyone's aware, 2% dip in the economy is recorded as recession.

I may have this wrong as I have only read the news reports, and not the report itself, but doesn't the report point to a 2-8% dip in growth? So the economy will still grow but be 2-8% off of where it would be in the EU?

That isn't good of course, but as I said with last week's report about growth dwarfing any Brexit losses, economic predictions are largely varied. The fact we haven't even gone a week and have contrasting headlines on the economic impact bears that out.


The headlines are not contrasting.

The report you refer to suggested that growth would dwarf losses from Brexit was not a proper economic study, it was the opinion of one man. Who based it on global growth, not the UK performing well. And he even said his worry is how much better we could do if it wasn’t for Brexit.

That’s not a positive Brexit story.

Considering the narrative before the referendum was doom and gloom, recession etc, a growing economy but at a slightly slower rate is quite the contrast.

However, the success of Brexit is almost entirely hinged on the ability of Britain to be able to cut trade deals with third party nations after Brexit. If we can't do that, we won't be able to grow at any rate other than one we will be stuck with under EU lite membership.

That's why I am happy with the idea of a second referendum on the terms of the deal. Pretty much everybody outside of the Tory party believes they have done about as bad a job as possible with negotiations, so I'd like to see their end game put back to the public.

If the choice is being locked in the EU rules with a seat at the table, or locked in the EU rules with no seat then its a complete no brainer and on that basis I would change my vote.

I wanted to leave as I wanted more democracy not less. So membership of the free market but even less direction over the future of the EU is the absolute worst of all scenarios in my opinion.

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Photek
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PostRe: Brexit
by Photek » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:42 am

Moggy wrote:
Photek wrote:Excellent Brexit callers into James O’Brien today. All of them when questioned eventually fell back on being a bit racist. Guy on now is retired in France and votes Brexit for his grand children so JOB pointed out they can’t do what he has and he changed subject.


I assume it was the Henry Hoover guy? :lol:

twitter.com/lbc/status/958357537245495296


Yep. :lol:

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:46 am

captain red dog wrote:Considering the narrative before the referendum was doom and gloom, recession etc, a growing economy but at a slightly slower rate is quite the contrast.


Well we are only talking about a leaked forecast that the government itself says isn’t particularly accurate. Even if it is, growth slowing by that amount is terrible, even if it is not as bad as it could have been.

However, the success of Brexit is almost entirely hinged on the ability of Britain to be able to cut trade deals with third party nations after Brexit. If we can't do that, we won't be able to grow at any rate other than one we will be stuck with under EU lite membership.


The same leaked report you seemed to like because it didn’t show doom and gloom also stated the predicted level of an American trade deal. It wasn’t very high.

Deals with third party nations will be essential if we leave everything to do with the EU, but they are not going to be deals that are as good as we already have. Why would America, China or anywhere else decide to suddenly give the UK an amazing deal? Especially when they will know we will be desperate.


That's why I am happy with the idea of a second referendum on the terms of the deal. Pretty much everybody outside of the Tory party believes they have done about as bad a job as possible with negotiations, so I'd like to see their end game put back to the public.

If the choice is being locked in the EU rules with a seat at the table, or locked in the EU rules with no seat then its a complete no brainer and on that basis I would change my vote.


And the government know this. They know that being out of the single market will harm us.

I agree that “EU-lite” membership is pointless, but it is far better than the alternative of no deal.

A second referendum on the terms of the deal wouldn’t solve your issue either, if the questions is “EU-lite” or “Leave with no deal” then how do you vote?

I wanted to leave as I wanted more democracy not less. So membership of the free market but even less direction over the future of the EU is the absolute worst of all scenarios in my opinion.


This is something I don’t understand with Brexit. You wanted more democracy? From the UK? The country with a Queen as head of state and an unelected (some are still hereditary or church bishops FFS!) House of Lords? With a FPTP system to elect MPs?

The EU is far more democratic than our system.

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KK
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PostRe: Brexit
by KK » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:06 pm

The Sun Say wrote:WHAT FOOLS Remainers made of themselves yesterday, swallowing whole the ridiculous Brexit “impact” papers. In doing so they revealed three things:

First, that they have learned NOTHING from Project Fear’s failure either to predict accurately or change anyone’s mind.

Second, that their grounds for seeing Brexit as an economic disaster are thin indeed if they need to rely on this GUFF.

Third, that for all their “greater education” they have ZERO common sense.

You cannot forecast economics 15 years ahead, any more than you could predict the winner of the 2033 Grand National from horses not yet conceived.

Anything can happen. Who, 15 years ago, foresaw the explosion of smartphones, or social media, a global financial crisis, President Trump or Brexit?

Figures of two, five or eight per cent of GDP are MEANINGLESS. And not only because they come from the same Europhile Whitehall bean-counters whose pre-referendum scares proved so wrong.

We also know these leaked preliminary figures are based on false assumptions.

But even if they proved accurate, an eight per cent brake on our GDP over 15 years won’t deter one Leaver.

They know the road could be bumpy. They think independence is worth it.

Besides, they don’t measure the nation’s success solely by its GDP.

What concerns them more are the pressing issues Tory MP Nick Boles and others highlighted in yesterday’s Sun: a better, more viable NHS, far more affordable homes, a revolution in technical skills.

Our economy is doing fine. RECORD numbers in work. HISTORIC lows in unemployment. Wages, consumer confidence and the Pound perking back up.

Remainers overlook it all, to OBSESS instead over flimsy forecasts of doom.

They should get a grip.

[elsewhere in the paper...]

We NEED Boris Johnson in charge – he’s the obvious choice

Being half-hearted, evasive, lacklustre, timorous and tongue-tied are not the qualities needed to lead us into a glorious post-Brexit future - yet this is the only kind of leadership Theresa May can provide.

Tory MPs, one might say, are disMayed.

Instead of backing Boris Johnson’s call for more NHS cash — the Tories need to carry the fight to Labour on health — she let underlings slap him down.

We were warned that if we dared to vote for Brexit, the skies would fall in. No such disaster occurred, as even David Cameron now admits.

Yet May and Philip Hammond handle Brexit like an unexploded bomb. It can only be a success under a robust leader who appreciates its opportunities.

Soon, May will either retire from the fray or be torn limb from limb by her own MPs, like Margaret Thatcher when she stayed on too long.

Boris Johnson swung the Brexit vote and has the energy and audacity to see it through.

The Tories need to go for the obvious choice.

Taking it well.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Brexit
by Moggy » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:21 pm

The Sun want Boris :lol:

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DML
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PostRe: Brexit
by DML » Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:22 pm

captain red dog wrote:
Moggy wrote:
captain red dog wrote:
DML wrote:Just so everyone's aware, 2% dip in the economy is recorded as recession.

I may have this wrong as I have only read the news reports, and not the report itself, but doesn't the report point to a 2-8% dip in growth? So the economy will still grow but be 2-8% off of where it would be in the EU?

That isn't good of course, but as I said with last week's report about growth dwarfing any Brexit losses, economic predictions are largely varied. The fact we haven't even gone a week and have contrasting headlines on the economic impact bears that out.


The headlines are not contrasting.

The report you refer to suggested that growth would dwarf losses from Brexit was not a proper economic study, it was the opinion of one man. Who based it on global growth, not the UK performing well. And he even said his worry is how much better we could do if it wasn’t for Brexit.

That’s not a positive Brexit story.

Considering the narrative before the referendum was doom and gloom, recession etc, a growing economy but at a slightly slower rate is quite the contrast.

However, the success of Brexit is almost entirely hinged on the ability of Britain to be able to cut trade deals with third party nations after Brexit. If we can't do that, we won't be able to grow at any rate other than one we will be stuck with under EU lite membership.

That's why I am happy with the idea of a second referendum on the terms of the deal. Pretty much everybody outside of the Tory party believes they have done about as bad a job as possible with negotiations, so I'd like to see their end game put back to the public.

If the choice is being locked in the EU rules with a seat at the table, or locked in the EU rules with no seat then its a complete no brainer and on that basis I would change my vote.

I wanted to leave as I wanted more democracy not less. So membership of the free market but even less direction over the future of the EU is the absolute worst of all scenarios in my opinion.


That ship therefore has sailed. As was made clear by our own government's analysts - no trade deal we get will sum up to what we get from the EU. Indeed, the US just a fraction of what we would lose. You should surely change your vote right now? Its not conjecture now, its the governments actual position on the likelyhood of success of Brexit. Even if the forecasts aren't correct, they could go either way and likely its going to only marginally out.


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