Brexit

New Brexit leak of Government analysis reveals steep costs for UK industries
Sky News has seen the Government's own analysis of the impact of leaving the EU on every industrial sector.

Britain's retail sector could be hit by a 20% rise in costs after Brexit - while car makers could see a 13% rise in manufacturing costs outside the EU - according to the Government's own internal estimates, seen by Sky News.

The forecast impact of Brexit on every industrial sector of the economy reveals the estimated added costs to UK companies.

So-called non-tariff barriers as a result of leaving the EU have also been calculated to add as much as 16% in costs in the food, drink, defence and education sectors.

The estimates are from the same document as an earlier leak of the forecast economic impact on the UK's nations and regions.

The analysis has been prepared by Government economists for Cabinet ministers, ahead of their discussions on future trading relationships with the EU, to be held on Thursday.

The estimated impact of Brexit on the UK's industrial sectors are what drive the eye-watering hits to growth over the next decade-and-a-half that have been forecast in certain parts of the country.

They are calculated from the estimated effect of non-tariff barrier costs on British businesses, which will be introduced to UK-EU trade upon withdrawal from the bloc.

Those costs have been expressed in percentage terms as if they were a regular tariff on trade.

The non-tariff barriers include extra customs checks, rules of origin regulations, added paperwork, and diverging regulatory standards.

Essentially, they are a calculation of the 'friction' that will be introduced to trade across almost all UK industrial sectors.

The Government no longer promises that post-Brexit trade with the EU - the UK's biggest market - will be frictionless after Brexit, instead claiming it will be "as frictionless as possible".

The document, circulated to members of the key Cabinet sub-committee due to meet on Thursday, estimates the range of potential non-tariff costs in key industrial sectors.

Tariff equivalent of non-tariff barrier costs, by sector:

:: Machinery, equipment and energy: 2% to 6%
:: Chemical, rubber and plastic: 6% to 12%
:: Other manufacturing: 5% to 12%
:: Motor vehicles: 5% to 13%
:: Food and drink: 8% to 16%
:: Agriculture: 8% to 17%
:: Construction: 0%
:: Business services: 0% to 6%
:: Other services: 2% to 10%
:: Financial services: 5% to 10%
:: Defence, education and health: 6% to 16%
:: Retail and wholesale: 7% to 20%

Agriculture could be hit by extra costs of between eight and 17%, although that could be mitigated by changing regulations and free-trade deals with new markets.

Lagamorph wrote:Theresa May refused to rule out including the NHS in a trade deal with the US at PMQs today.

<]:^D wrote:

Lagamorph wrote:Theresa May refused to rule out including the NHS in a trade deal with the US at PMQs today.

not surprised, she and a large amount of the Conservatives are actively trying to sell off the NHS to benefit themselves. read NHS SOS - theyre absolute scum.

e source said: “There is mounting concern that nothing has been agreed yet. No-one seems to know when this is going to be sorted out.

“There has been talk of the cabinet being taken away to Chequers to thrash out an agreement on what kind of trade deal we want and how we solve the Northern Ireland issue, but nothing has been arranged.

“The discussions never got into the weeds,” they said. “There weren’t any rows but that was because there was no attempt to come to any conclusion

Photek wrote:I’m more shocked at the idea of selling the NHS.

<]:^D wrote:

Photek wrote:I’m more shocked at the idea of selling the NHS.

im simplifying immensely but the idea is you 'parcel' up the individual services of the NHS into smaller pieces, which you can then 'stealth' privatise, until the whole is unrecognisable.
this has and is already happened/happening

Garth wrote:They're gong to have to make decisions on these issues at some point, and they're not going to please everyone. They're just wasting time.

lex-man wrote:

Garth wrote:They're gong to have to make decisions on these issues at some point, and they're not going to please everyone. They're just wasting time.

Isn't that kind of what the hard brexiters want? Run down the timer and crash out without a deal and then blame the EU for not playing ball.

captain red dog wrote:

lex-man wrote:

Garth wrote:They're gong to have to make decisions on these issues at some point, and they're not going to please everyone. They're just wasting time.

Isn't that kind of what the hard brexiters want? Run down the timer and crash out without a deal and then blame the EU for not playing ball.

Possibly some of them. It feels to me like the cabinet are constantly kicking the ball down the field to stay in power as long as they can, because they are too weak to build a consensus.

This is only going to end one way in my opinion, a government collapse, a new election and withdrawal of article 50 until a strategy is decided on, or a referendum if the Lib Dems can form a coalition.

Moggy wrote:

captain red dog wrote:

lex-man wrote:

Garth wrote:They're gong to have to make decisions on these issues at some point, and they're not going to please everyone. They're just wasting time.

Isn't that kind of what the hard brexiters want? Run down the timer and crash out without a deal and then blame the EU for not playing ball.

Possibly some of them. It feels to me like the cabinet are constantly kicking the ball down the field to stay in power as long as they can, because they are too weak to build a consensus.

I agree with that, the Remainers are too weak to take over and the Leavers are too scared of it all blowing up in their faces. All of them are just kicking it along, hoping that things change.

This is only going to end one way in my opinion, a government collapse, a new election and withdrawal of article 50 until a strategy is decided on, or a referendum if the Lib Dems can form a coalition.

I am not sure there will be a government collapse, unless Tory MPs start outright rebelling/quitting. The DUP are there to prop them up, I don't see them walking away from the Tories. Theresa May will be toppled at some point, I don't think the next leader will be brave enough to call an early election, the lesson of Theresa May will be hanging over all of them!

Article 50 will therefore not be withdrawn and we will pass the 2 year deadline and be out of the EU, probably under transitional arrangements for a few years while deals are sorted out. But passing that 2 year deadline will be the key, there is no easy way of turning back from Brexit once that period is up.

If the Lib Dems are ever going to form another coalition, then they are going to need to do a hell of a lot better in the elections to come. They currently have 12 MPs, only 2 more than the DUP. which is a long way from the 57 MPs they had when they formed the coalition.

lex-man wrote:Also even if the Remainer Tories start rebelling I think Labour will prop them up when it comes to Brexit.

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