Brexit

Moggy wrote:

Squinty wrote:Nigel Dodds. I wish he would strawberry float off.

I've said this before, but this could be pretty good for NI. Unfortunately the DUP clowns will oppose anything that would actually somewhat safeguard our future.

EU doing its homework though

I don’t think it will be just the DUP that scuppers any deal like this. The hard Brexit wing of the Tory part will not go for it. The SNP will demand the same deal for Scotland. Etc.

It’s going to come down to a hard border (and therefore hard Brexit) or a united Ireland. And I can’t see a united Ireland happening in the next few years.

I've said this before, I cannot see it coming to a hard border. I think we are heading towards a Brexit where all regions will be in the customs union. It is literally the only way to keep everyone happy.

If the DUP are still holding sway over the government in the near future, I see this panning out the same way the end as Phase 1 did. UK government will concede and have England in the CU because the DUP don't want NI to be any different from the mainland.

It's a possibility that there could be one. But I think it is very unlikely at this moment.

A general election could change this a lot though.

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Regulatory alignment between the whole of the UK and the EU in various areas to prevent a hard border in Ireland then?

Squinty wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Squinty wrote:Nigel Dodds. I wish he would strawberry float off.

I've said this before, but this could be pretty good for NI. Unfortunately the DUP clowns will oppose anything that would actually somewhat safeguard our future.

EU doing its homework though

I don’t think it will be just the DUP that scuppers any deal like this. The hard Brexit wing of the Tory part will not go for it. The SNP will demand the same deal for Scotland. Etc.

It’s going to come down to a hard border (and therefore hard Brexit) or a united Ireland. And I can’t see a united Ireland happening in the next few years.

I've said this before, I cannot see it coming to a hard border. I think we are heading towards a Brexit where all regions will be in the customs union. It is literally the only way to keep everyone happy.

The Gammon's wont accept it though.

Hexx wrote:

Squinty wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Squinty wrote:Nigel Dodds. I wish he would strawberry float off.

I've said this before, but this could be pretty good for NI. Unfortunately the DUP clowns will oppose anything that would actually somewhat safeguard our future.

EU doing its homework though

I don’t think it will be just the DUP that scuppers any deal like this. The hard Brexit wing of the Tory part will not go for it. The SNP will demand the same deal for Scotland. Etc.

It’s going to come down to a hard border (and therefore hard Brexit) or a united Ireland. And I can’t see a united Ireland happening in the next few years.

I've said this before, I cannot see it coming to a hard border. I think we are heading towards a Brexit where all regions will be in the customs union. It is literally the only way to keep everyone happy.

The Gammon's wont accept it though.

I hope Squinty is right, but at the moment I just don't see the hard Brexit Tories and DUP going for it. And they appear to be the ones in control.

Things might change though, if Labour/Lib Dems/SNP and rebel Tories can get their acts together then they might be able to stop hard Brexit.

I think Hard Brexit is inevitable now - but then I've thought that for a while.

Hexx wrote:

Squinty wrote:

Moggy wrote:

Squinty wrote:Nigel Dodds. I wish he would strawberry float off.

I've said this before, but this could be pretty good for NI. Unfortunately the DUP clowns will oppose anything that would actually somewhat safeguard our future.

EU doing its homework though

I don’t think it will be just the DUP that scuppers any deal like this. The hard Brexit wing of the Tory part will not go for it. The SNP will demand the same deal for Scotland. Etc.

It’s going to come down to a hard border (and therefore hard Brexit) or a united Ireland. And I can’t see a united Ireland happening in the next few years.

I've said this before, I cannot see it coming to a hard border. I think we are heading towards a Brexit where all regions will be in the customs union. It is literally the only way to keep everyone happy.

The Gammon's wont accept it though.

I probably shouldn't have said everyone happy. Cause no one will be fully happy. But it is literally the only way forward. We all knew Ireland would be a massive issue. No consideration before the referendum, no solutions after it that are based in reality for a full hard Brexit.

Hexx wrote:I think Hard Brexit is inevitable now - but then I've thought that for a while.

There is hope, but a softer Brexit is getting less and less likely in my opinion.

My guess is Labour and the rebel Tories will vote down May’s Brexit bill and that’ll finish her off. Johnson/Rees-Mogg will become Prime Minister and call an election. The gammons will be so worked up that the Tories will get their majority back and then we will be going hard Brexit all the way.

I am always wrong though, so we will probably end up with Ken Clarke as PM and the whole Brexit mess being cancelled.

It's the hope that kills you

I'm slightly more optimistic.
I think a last minute deal will be done that will somehow take us out and give us access but will leave a lot of stuff unresolved but with plans to resolve them in the near future.
I don't think either side will be particularly happy but trade will go on both ways without huge problems and both sides can claim partial victory.

The result won't be as good as staying in but won't be a disaster which is pretty much about as good as we can hope for which if they said that at the start of the referendum campaign would have been rather less attractive.

The hardcore brexiteer wing of the Tory party is either going to have to come to its senses or just do something that could, worse case scenario, lead to renewed civil disturbances in NI. We will know where we stand if they stick to their guns.

So let's put strawberry floating with a peace treaty in with throwing all our trade deals away in the hope we might get some other ones. Brexit doesn't make any strawberry floating sense.

I can't see parliament or a large part of the Conservative party being OK with hard Brexit. Could they prevent it?

Squinty wrote:The hardcore brexiteer wing of the Tory party is either going to have to come to its senses or just do something that could, worse case scenario, lead to renewed civil disturbances in NI. We will know where we stand if they stick to their guns.

So let's put strawberry floating with a peace treaty in with throwing all our trade deals away in the hope we might get some other ones. Brexit doesn't make any strawberry floating sense.

There’s no risk at all from Northern Ireland though. Photek told me that a few months ago and I believe him. So we can happily ignore the Good Friday Agreement knowing that England will be safe.

Hexx wrote:It's the hope that kills you

The thing that oddly annoys me most is that at the start we were told the government had hired a couple of monstrously expensive super lawyers and even though I voted to stay in I thought "we have this in the bag now!" with the super lawyers being able to use awesome legal doublespeak to bamboozle those poor EU bureaucrats into submission.

Why have they not sprung some obscure legal precedent from 1427 that somehow proves we deserve to get whatever we want and we deserve a backdated rebate of £3 trillion?
London is supposed to have the world best lawyers and we hired the best so why aren't we cruising to an epic victory?

I can't see anything but a hard brexit now which will mean a hard border in the Ireland.

A soft Brexit is the only option moving forward. It'll be a 11th hour botchjob.

DML wrote:A soft Brexit is the only option moving forward. It'll be a 11th hour botchjob.

The trouble is, you are basing that on nothing except what you want to happen and what is the most sensible thing to happen.

The hard Brexit supporters don’t care what Remainers want. 48% of the country (and it is probably quite a lot more than that!) don’t matter to them. We do not exist as far as they are concerned.

And they are not sensible people. They proved that before the referendum, during the referendum and after the referendum. They don’t care what is sensible, they want out. Fully out. And they don’t care if it strawberry floats up the economy.

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Moggy wrote:

DML wrote:A soft Brexit is the only option moving forward. It'll be a 11th hour botchjob.

The trouble is, you are basing that on nothing except what you want to happen and what is the most sensible thing to happen.

The hard Brexit supporters don’t care what Remainers want. 48% of the country (and it is probably quite a lot more than that!) don’t matter to them. We do not exist as far as they are concerned.

And they are not sensible people. They proved that before the referendum, during the referendum and after the referendum. They don’t care what is sensible, they want out. Fully out. And they don’t care if it strawberry floats up the economy.

I base it on two things.

1) There are more Remain supporting MPs than Leave MPs. That is going to come home to roost, because the current government seat wise is too weak for it not to come home to roost. The power is going to swing.

2) They have been too lily livered to make a real stand anyway. Therefore they will take the weak option out, which just so happens to be Soft Brexit. Absolutely nothing in Theresa's goverment has been strong, why is she going to start now?

I honestly think those who are absolutely hard Brexit right now are just being career politicians. Every MP knows how disastrous Hard Brexit will be. I think we're going to see a sharp change in narrative when we no longer need to read between the lines and everything is out in the open.

DML wrote:

Moggy wrote:

DML wrote:A soft Brexit is the only option moving forward. It'll be a 11th hour botchjob.

The trouble is, you are basing that on nothing except what you want to happen and what is the most sensible thing to happen.

The hard Brexit supporters don’t care what Remainers want. 48% of the country (and it is probably quite a lot more than that!) don’t matter to them. We do not exist as far as they are concerned.

And they are not sensible people. They proved that before the referendum, during the referendum and after the referendum. They don’t care what is sensible, they want out. Fully out. And they don’t care if it strawberry floats up the economy.

I base it on two things.

1) There are more Remain supporting MPs than Leave MPs. That is going to come home to roost, because the current government seat wise is too weak for it not to come home to roost. The power is going to swing.

2) They have been too lily livered to make a real stand anyway. Therefore they will take the weak option out, which just so happens to be Soft Brexit. Absolutely nothing in Theresa's goverment has been strong, why is she going to start now?

I honestly think those who are absolutely hard Brexit right now are just being career politicians. Every MP knows how disastrous Hard Brexit will be. I think we're going to see a sharp change in narrative when we no longer need to read between the lines and everything is out in the open.

There are a few troubles with what you have said though.

1. We have already triggered Article 50 and will be looking at an exit next year. Any transition and any deals post Brexit will be dependant on Parliament coming to some sort of agreement. Are you that confident that Labour can force anything through while relying on the support of the Lib Dems, SNP and 10-20 Tories? All while the media is screaming about “enemies of the people”?

And we are not just talking about a soft Brexit coalition stopping the hard Brexit plans, they will need to come up with legislation and get that through Parliament and get the EU to agree to it, all while our chief negotiator is David Davis.

2. They might be lily livered, but they don’t actually need to do much. Johnson/Rees-Mogg and co just need to keep banging on about hard Brexit being best. Davis just needs to continue being the lazy sod that he is. The time is ticking, doing nothing brings us closer and closer to a hard Brexit.

I agree a lot of the hard Brexit MPs are just doing it for their careers. And they will be looking at the gammons and thinking that their best bet is to push forward a hard Brexit. That way they cannot be called traitors by the Daily Mail and they can always blame the EU for bullying us once things go wrong.

Major strawberry floating nailing it at the mo