The Politics Thread 4

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Drumstick
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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Drumstick » Wed Feb 21, 2018 8:53 am

Lagamorph wrote:Not really. The government get back their original contribution even if the price falls when the house is sold. If the price goes up they get back more than their original contribution. The only way to avoid paying back more is to pay back the Help to buy loan before selling.

Yeah this is exactly what we have just done via remortgage. Quite a weight off our shoulders now that we own our house 100%.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by KK » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:22 am

BBC News wrote:UK unemployment rises for first time in two years

UK unemployment has increased slightly for the first time in two years.

The rate of unemployment rose from 4.3% to 4.4% for the three months to the end of December, the Office for National Statistics said.

Despite the slight increase in the unemployment rate, the total number of those in work increased by 88,000.

Wages grew by an average of 2.5%, up from 2.4% the previous month, although the increase remained below inflation.

The number of unemployed people rose by 46,000 to 1.47 million for the final quarter of the year, compared to the previous three months.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Lex-Man » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:45 am

It's probably the thing I say whenever unemployment figures are released but why can't the government release stats based on people's tax returns. We could get actually accurate figures that tell us how many hours people are working and the average wage.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Moggy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:01 am

lex-man wrote:It's probably the thing I say whenever unemployment figures are released but why can't the government release stats based on people's tax returns. We could get actually accurate figures that tell us how many hours people are working and the average wage.


Because those stats would be awful and the government wouldn’t want people to know?

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by KK » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:11 pm

More details on employment:

BBC News wrote:The UK has seen the strongest two quarters of productivity growth since the recession of 2008, according to the latest data.

Output per hour rose 0.8% in the three months to December, the Office for National Statistics said. It follows growth of 0.9% in the previous period.

There was also a better than expected rise in wages. Excluding bonuses, earnings rose by 2.5% year-on-year.

However, unemployment edged higher, but still remains low at 4.4%.

The growth in productivity - as measured by the amount of work produced per working hour - will provide encouragement to policy makers who have wrestled with the challenge of low productivity growth since the financial crisis.

The ONS said the surprise rise in the unemployment rate raised the question of whether the UK's long run of falling unemployment might be over.

The rise in wages still lags behind inflation which stood at 3% at the end of last year. So average pay has not increased in real terms. But a pick up in wage growth is another sign that the UK economy could be shifting tack.

Economists suggest that the rise in wages is significant.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG in the UK, said: "There are signs that average weekly earnings, which rose by 2.5% in the fourth quarter, are beginning to respond to the tightness of the labour market, although households are still feeling the squeeze when accounting for inflation, with real earnings falling by 0.3%."

She also described the productivity figures as "very encouraging".

"If stronger productivity continues into 2018, the Bank of England may decide to hold at least once on raising rates this year," she added.

The increase in unemployment for the three months to the end of December was the first rise in the jobless rate for two years. However, the total number of people in work also continued to rise, jumping by 88,000 in the same period.

Some of that increase was due to people previously classed as inactive and not looking for work moving into the workforce or registering as unemployed.

"There are mixed messages in the data we've had out this morning," says Liz Martins, senior economist at HSBC.

"You've got a big rise in unemployment, a big rise in employment and a big rise in the workforce. It's not clear any one of those in isolation is a start of a trend.

Ms Martins said she expected the unemployment rate to continue to rise but that rising numbers out of work could be part of the explanation for increased productivity growth.

"If GDP is growing more than the number of people working in it, then productivity will grow as there is more growth per head.

"It's not the nicest way to get productivity but it is effective as long as GDP growth doesn't slow too," she said.

The productivity puzzle

Analysis: Andy Verity, economics correspondent

We used to take it for granted that we would each get better off as the economy grew.

As companies and the government invested in better technology and skills, each worker could produce more goods or services per hour, bringing in more revenue to their employers - and as a result, each worker could be paid more per hour.

Those improvements in productivity were for most of the last 200 years the motor of economic growth, so regular they could be taken for granted.

In the past decade, that engine of improved prosperity broke down.

By June 2017, the amount produced per hour was only 0.4 per cent larger than it had been nine years before.

While we had had economic growth, most of it wasn't growth in the amount each worker produced or earned, but simply growth in the number of people working.

Because an economy is simply people and their economic activity, when the number of people grows, so does the economy. But it may not be the sort of growth where individuals are getting better off.

So used to the "productivity puzzle" have economists become that when the ONS estimated productivity growth of 0.9% in the third quarter of last year, many dismissed it as a blip.

But now, with another estimate of 0.8 per cent in the final quarter, fewer are scoffing. Maybe that old motor has some life in it yet.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43140646

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by DML » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:17 pm

As I always say - take zero hours contracts out of the equation and I bet its risen year on year on year. Absolute cooking the books.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by satriales » Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:27 pm

The changes to school leaving age will have also massively adjuated the figures to make unemployment look better.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by KK » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:07 pm

Not everyone has a problem with zero hour or flexible contracts. McDonald’s is now offering fixed contracts after some staff complained, but 80% of workers who took part in their original trial of the scheme chose to remain on flexible contracts - so you have those working anywhere from 4 to 35 hours depending on what their needs are. With the right safeguards in place there is nothing wrong with flexible employment.

According to ONS figures from May 2017, those on zero hours stood at 1.4 million (the lowest since 2014). I would presume it's continued to fall since then.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Moggy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:13 pm

KK wrote:Not everyone has a problem with zero hour or flexible contracts. McDonald’s is now offering fixed contracts after some staff complained, but 80% of workers who took part in their original trial of the scheme chose to remain on flexible contracts - so you have those working anywhere from 4 to 35 hours depending on what their needs are. With the right safeguards in place there is nothing wrong with flexible employment.

According to ONS figures from May 2017, those on zero hours stood at 1.4 million (the lowest since 2014). I would presume it's continued to fall since then.


People might not have a problem with being on zero hour contracts (although lots of other do have a problem with it) but that doesn't mean the government isn't cooking the books.

They ought to break down the unemployment numbers between zero hour contracts, part time workers and full time workers. Then we might get a better picture of how healthy the jobs market is.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by DML » Wed Feb 21, 2018 4:58 pm

KK wrote:Not everyone has a problem with zero hour or flexible contracts. McDonald’s is now offering fixed contracts after some staff complained, but 80% of workers who took part in their original trial of the scheme chose to remain on flexible contracts - so you have those working anywhere from 4 to 35 hours depending on what their needs are. With the right safeguards in place there is nothing wrong with flexible employment.

According to ONS figures from May 2017, those on zero hours stood at 1.4 million (the lowest since 2014). I would presume it's continued to fall since then.


Utterly irrelevant to my point really.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by KK » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:13 pm

I never quoted you in the first place.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Grumpy David » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:21 pm

twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/966212776933974016



Tbf to Question Time, the panel usually has more Remain than Leave people on. And Farage is probably the most significant politician since Thatcher and Blair.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by DML » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:26 pm

KK wrote:I never quoted you in the first place.


Why do you need to quote me? I was the only one who mentioned zero hour contracts.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by DML » Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:27 pm

Grumpy David wrote:

twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/966212776933974016



Tbf to Question Time, the panel usually has more Remain than Leave people on. And Farage is probably the most significant politician since Thatcher and Blair.


Maybe in his own head.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Moggy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:41 pm

Grumpy David wrote:

twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/966212776933974016



Tbf to Question Time, the panel usually has more Remain than Leave people on. And Farage is probably the most significant politician since Thatcher and Blair.


Farage can’t even get elected to Parliament. His party is collapsing and has barely ever had MPs (the only ones were Tory defectors).

Having Leavers on is fair enough, but Farage should be nowhere near it.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Moggy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:05 pm

twitter.com/pickardje/status/966341996066504705



So the number one asset that Moscow had was clever enough to stay out of the meticulous records when he was talking and accepting money from the organiser of Live Aid.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Moggy » Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:18 pm

twitter.com/aljwhite/status/966290767668039681



Ouch! :lol:

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Lex-Man » Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:19 am

Moggy wrote:

twitter.com/aljwhite/status/966290767668039681



Ouch! :lol:


I kind of love the way he dismisses the Labour bloke. It's almost a just sit down and play with your toys while I destroy this guy moment.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by Preezy » Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:28 am

Urgh, are there any politicians out there that aren’t slimy snakes? Can’t stand any of them.

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PostRe: The Politics Thread 4
by <]:^D » Fri Feb 23, 2018 1:56 pm

they are put in difficult positions by their colleagues, but it doesnt help that many of them end up playing the same 'game'


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