- Alvin Flummux
- Joined in 2008
- Location: Wilmington, OH, USA
'Mon that blue wave!
Lots more going on too:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/j ... s-results/
The big one to watch is California, where the primary system could lock out one or other party entirely:
Jungle primaries can be confusing even to locals, so let’s start with a refresher. In California, all candidates regardless of party run on the same ballot in the June primary. The top two vote-getters (again, regardless of party) advance to a head-to-head election in November. When this system went into effect in 2012, moderates were supposed to benefit because candidates would have to appeal to the whole electorate rather than just their partisan base. But three elections later, Californians disagree on whether it has succeeded.
What it has done is occasionally let two candidates of the same party slip through to the general election, which critics say deprives voters of a true choice in November.2 Let’s say you have a district that’s perfectly split — 50-50 — between Democratic and Republican voters, but 10 Democratic candidates run for the seat compared with only two Republicans. The two Republicans might get 25 percent of the vote apiece, while the Democrats each receive 5 percent. That would advance the two Republicans to the general election, locking up that district for the GOP.
That’s exactly what Democrats fear will happen in California’s 39th, 48th and 49th congressional districts — and perhaps in the 10th and 50th districts as well. Those districts’ swing status attracted a large number of credible challengers in what has been a great recruiting year for Democrats, but that high Democratic enthusiasm could backfire as a result of the jungle primary.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ca ... h-parties/