Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos

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Rightey
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PostComing to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Rightey » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:15 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/deepf ... -1.4731665

I never said that! High-tech deception of 'deepfake' videos
Facial mapping, artificial intelligence used to make fake videos that look genuine to experts

Hey, did that congressman really say that? Is that really President Donald Trump on that video, or am I being duped?

New technology on the internet lets anyone make videos of real people appearing to say things they've never said. Republicans and Democrats predict this high-tech way of putting words in someone's mouth will become the latest weapon in disinformation wars against the United States and other Western democracies.

We're not talking about lip-syncing videos. This technology uses facial mapping and artificial intelligence to produce videos that appear so genuine it's hard to spot the phonies. Lawmakers and intelligence officials worry that the bogus videos — called deepfakes — could be used to threaten national security or interfere in elections.

So far, that hasn't happened, but experts say it's not a question of if, but when.

"I expect that here in the United States we will start to see this content in the upcoming midterms and national election two years from now," said Hany Farid, a digital forensics expert at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. "The technology, of course, knows no borders, so I expect the impact to ripple around the globe."

When an average person can create a realistic fake video of the president saying anything they want, Farid said, "we have entered a new world where it is going to be difficult to know how to believe what we see." The reverse is a concern, too. People may dismiss as fake genuine footage, say of a real atrocity, to score political points.

Realizing the implications of the technology, the U.S. Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency is already two years into a four-year program to develop technologies that can detect fake images and videos. Right now, it takes extensive analysis to identify phoney videos. It's unclear if new ways to authenticate images or detect fakes will keep pace with deepfake technology.

Deepfakes are so named because they utilize deep learning, a form of artificial intelligence. They are made by feeding a computer an algorithm, or set of instructions, lots of images and audio of a certain person. The computer program learns how to mimic the person's facial expressions, mannerisms, voice and inflections. If you have enough video and audio of someone, you can combine a fake video of the person with a fake audio and get them to say anything you want.

So far, deepfakes have mostly been used to smear celebrities or as gags, but it's easy to foresee a nation state using them for nefarious activities against the U.S., said Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, one of several members of the Senate intelligence committee who are expressing concern about deepfakes.

'None of us are safe' from fake celebrity porn apps, tech expert warns
Fake videos are disturbing and getting easier to make

A foreign intelligence agency could use the technology to produce a fake video of an American politician using a racial epithet or taking a bribe, Rubio says. They could use a fake video of a U.S. soldier massacring civilians overseas, or one of a U.S. official supposedly admitting a secret plan to carry out a conspiracy. Imagine a fake video of a U.S. leader — or an official from North Korea or Iran — warning the United States of an impending disaster.

"It's a weapon that could be used — timed appropriately and placed appropriately — in the same way fake news is used, except in a video form, which could create real chaos and instability on the eve of an election or a major decision of any sort," Rubio told The Associated Press.

Deepfake technology still has a few hitches. For instance, people's blinking in fake videos may appear unnatural. But the technology is improving.

"Within a year or two, it's going to be really hard for a person to distinguish between a real video and a fake video," said Andrew Grotto, an international security fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University in California.
'Irresistible' technology

"This technology, I think, will be irresistible for nation states to use in disinformation campaigns to manipulate public opinion, deceive populations and undermine confidence in our institutions," Grotto said. He called for government leaders and politicians to clearly say it has no place in civilized political debate.

Crude videos have been used for malicious political purposes for years, so there's no reason to believe the higher-tech ones, which are more realistic, won't become tools in future disinformation campaigns.

Rubio noted that in 2009, the U.S. Embassy in Moscow complained to the Russian Foreign Ministry about a fake sex video it said was made to damage the reputation of a U.S. diplomat. The video showed the married diplomat, who was a liaison to Russian religious and human rights groups, making telephone calls on a dark street. The video then showed the diplomat in his hotel room, scenes that apparently were shot with a hidden camera. Later, the video appeared to show a man and a woman having sex in the same room with the lights off, although it was not at all clear that the man was the diplomat.

John Beyrle, who was the U.S. ambassador in Moscow at the time, blamed the Russian government for the video, which he said was clearly fabricated.

Michael McFaul, who was American ambassador in Russia between 2012 and 2014, said Russia has engaged in disinformation videos against various political actors for years and that he too had been a target. He has said that Russian state propaganda inserted his face into photographs and "spliced my speeches to make me say things I never uttered and even accused me of pedophilia."



Well what the hell do we do now? We're going to be bombarded by fake video's of people doing/saying stuff, or alternatively any time some scandal comes to light people will be writing it off as just video manipulation.

It's a pretty horrible situation and makes me think that perhaps we've reached a point where we need to say development of a particular technology might need to be regulated. But then we might just get into a situation where it's being developed in secret and we don't even know it exists, so we don't think we need to exercise caution.

Pelloki on ghosts wrote:Just start masturbating furiously. That'll make them go away.

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Albear
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Albear » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:18 am

I've yet to see a convincing one.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Moggy » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:36 am

Albear wrote:I've yet to see a convincing one.


The trouble is people believe all sorts of unconvincing shite and these videos are only going to get better.

There's not much that can be done though, the future is going to be full of this crap.

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Rightey
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Rightey » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:48 am

Albear wrote:I've yet to see a convincing one.


Maybe you have but just didn't realize it.

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As Moggy said, these things are only going to get better, and the speed with which they improve tends to increase as well.

Pelloki on ghosts wrote:Just start masturbating furiously. That'll make them go away.

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Rex Kramer
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Rex Kramer » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:51 am

Is it really going to make much of a difference? Most of the people seem to believe any old bollocks they hear via their mate/facebook/the taxi driver anyway. An increase in access to information just seems to have resulted in people actually becoming more stupid.

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Moggy
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Moggy » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:55 am

Rex Kramer wrote:Is it really going to make much of a difference? Most of the people seem to believe any old bollocks they hear via their mate/facebook/the taxi driver anyway. An increase in access to information just seems to have resulted in people actually becoming more stupid.


A very convincing video of a Tory politician saying “I support workhouses for the poor” or a very convincing video of a Labour politician saying “I support privatising the NHS” probably would make a big difference.

You are right that a lot of people believe any old gooseberry fool, but just imagine how many more people are going to believe a load of gooseberry fool when they have actual video evidence in front of them.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Preezy » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:04 am

So long as the porn industry keeps pace with this new technology, I have no concerns.

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Squinty
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Squinty » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:59 am

People are stupid, so this will work.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by OrangeRKN » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:10 am

The most dangerous time is the crossover period, where people now are used to believing video footage. Once it becomes common knowledge that videos are just as likely faked as real, then hopefully they become potentially less damaging.

It's a trust issue at the end of the day, where people are going to have to rely even more on their news coming from trusted sources. If a video is shown on the BBC then that should be more trustworthy than a random video uploaded to youtube, because the BBC should carry out due process and fact checking.

One potential solution I can see is that people should start hashing and signing videos to at least prove their origin, if not the truth of their content. That way if there is a BBC interview with a politician, anyone can easily verify that it did in fact come from the BBC and that it has not been altered.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Moggy » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:16 am

Squinty wrote:People are stupid, so this will work.


I think it will go beyond that though. The fake videos that will really catch people out will be extremely hard to verify. It isn’t going to work by taking a news conference or official video and changing what the people actually said - although that sort of manipulation will be out there to catch the stupid.

The real danger will be the hidden camera or in private meeting footage. It is going to be impossible to tell whether a government minister has been secretly filmed saying/doing something appalling, or whether the footage was fake. Just as worrying, it will be easy for politicians to get out of trouble by claiming that genuine undercover footage is fake and that they never said/did the things shown.

We see it already with Trump calling things fake news when everybody (except his most stupid believers) knows that they are true. It’s going to be crazy when Trump like politicians can claim that actual video of them is also fake.

It’s worrying, but there’s nothing we can do about it.

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Rax
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Rax » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:17 am

OrangeRakoon wrote:The most dangerous time is the crossover period, where people now are used to believing video footage. Once it becomes common knowledge that videos are just as likely faked as real, then hopefully they become potentially less damaging.

It's a trust issue at the end of the day, where people are going to have to rely even more on their news coming from trusted sources. If a video is shown on the BBC then that should be more trustworthy than a random video uploaded to youtube, because the BBC should carry out due process and fact checking.

One potential solution I can see is that people should start hashing and signing videos to at least prove their origin, if not the truth of their content. That way if there is a BBC interview with a politician, anyone can easily verify that it did in fact come from the BBC and that it has not been altered.

The assumption there is that people are capable of critical thinking and will actually do their own due dilligence to ensure the infop they get is correct and reliable. What recent years have shown is that people will believe and old gooseberry fool and pointing out the facts to them will just make them cry fake news and cite some media conspiracy.

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Brerlappin
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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Brerlappin » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:26 am

Preezy wrote:So long as the porn industry keeps pace with this new technology, I have no concerns.


There was an entire subreddit fro deepfakes and it had some strawberry floating scarily good ones of Katy Parry and Sansa Stark. It got deleted tho

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by lex-man » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:38 am

Rax wrote:
OrangeRakoon wrote:The most dangerous time is the crossover period, where people now are used to believing video footage. Once it becomes common knowledge that videos are just as likely faked as real, then hopefully they become potentially less damaging.

It's a trust issue at the end of the day, where people are going to have to rely even more on their news coming from trusted sources. If a video is shown on the BBC then that should be more trustworthy than a random video uploaded to youtube, because the BBC should carry out due process and fact checking.

One potential solution I can see is that people should start hashing and signing videos to at least prove their origin, if not the truth of their content. That way if there is a BBC interview with a politician, anyone can easily verify that it did in fact come from the BBC and that it has not been altered.

The assumption there is that people are capable of critical thinking and will actually do their own due dilligence to ensure the infop they get is correct and reliable. What recent years have shown is that people will believe and old gooseberry fool and pointing out the facts to them will just make them cry fake news and cite some media conspiracy.


I think it's worse than that. If, like Moggy said, a video of a MP got leaked with them saying something horrible in private and they said that it was fake but the leakers maintained it was real how can anyone realistically make a rational judgement on whether it was real or not. At some point it will be impossible to tell who's lying and who's telling the truth.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Jenuall » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:50 am

The scary thing is depending on how good the technology gets and how much input is required to make convincing fake then you could see this being used for much more than just porn or politics*

Imagine fake footage being used as evidence in court cases, or in disputes between families - I'm sorry sir we need to remove your children from you as your wife has shown us evidence of you abusing them.

Frightening stuff.


*I realise for some there is little to life beyond those two categories! :slol:

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by OrangeRKN » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:22 pm

lex-man wrote:I think it's worse than that. If, like Moggy said, a video of a MP got leaked with them saying something horrible in private and they said that it was fake but the leakers maintained it was real how can anyone realistically make a rational judgement on whether it was real or not. At some point it will be impossible to tell who's lying and who's telling the truth.


This isn't really any different from someone leaking an internal memo, or an email, or just saying someone said something.

The problem is that currently, video footage is given a lot more weight by people because it /can't/ be easily faked. That perceived infallibility of video should drop when it becomes clear that they can be.

Society, and our democracy, survived before video ever existed, so it can survive losing it as strong evidence too. That's isn't to say fake video won't cause problems, but I don't think it's apocalyptic.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Hyperion » Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:44 pm

You can fake anything nowadays

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Or can you? :dread:

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by lex-man » Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:06 pm

OrangeRakoon wrote:
lex-man wrote:I think it's worse than that. If, like Moggy said, a video of a MP got leaked with them saying something horrible in private and they said that it was fake but the leakers maintained it was real how can anyone realistically make a rational judgement on whether it was real or not. At some point it will be impossible to tell who's lying and who's telling the truth.


This isn't really any different from someone leaking an internal memo, or an email, or just saying someone said something.

The problem is that currently, video footage is given a lot more weight by people because it /can't/ be easily faked. That perceived infallibility of video should drop when it becomes clear that they can be.

Society, and our democracy, survived before video ever existed, so it can survive losing it as strong evidence too. That's isn't to say fake video won't cause problems, but I don't think it's apocalyptic.


I guess that it won't be the end of the world but it's going to make it harder to make a choice of candidate during an election and will further erode trust in politicians.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Moggy » Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:12 pm

OrangeRakoon wrote:
lex-man wrote:I think it's worse than that. If, like Moggy said, a video of a MP got leaked with them saying something horrible in private and they said that it was fake but the leakers maintained it was real how can anyone realistically make a rational judgement on whether it was real or not. At some point it will be impossible to tell who's lying and who's telling the truth.


This isn't really any different from someone leaking an internal memo, or an email, or just saying someone said something.

The problem is that currently, video footage is given a lot more weight by people because it /can't/ be easily faked. That perceived infallibility of video should drop when it becomes clear that they can be.

Society, and our democracy, survived before video ever existed, so it can survive losing it as strong evidence too. That's isn't to say fake video won't cause problems, but I don't think it's apocalyptic.


There’s a massive difference between a faked memo and a faked video. Seeing and hearing somebody say/do something is far more powerful than reading an email. And it will remain so even in a world where you can no longer trust video.

It goes beyond it not being possible to fake a video, the human mind will always take the combination of sound and vision as far more believable than a written account. Seeing an email “written” by Trump that says “I think we should legislate to force the sacrifice of the first born of every immigrant” is going to be far less believable/powerful than actually seeing video footage of him saying it inside the Oval Office. Not that that example is all that far fetched when it comes to Trump…

I agree it probably will not be apocalyptic, but it will be a massive deal in the future.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by OrangeRKN » Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:34 pm

Moggy wrote:Seeing and hearing somebody say/do something is far more powerful than reading an email. And it will remain so even in a world where you can no longer trust video.

It goes beyond it not being possible to fake a video, the human mind will always take the combination of sound and vision as far more believable than a written account.


I think I'm just more hopeful that this isn't the case. Society adapts to new technology all the time.

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PostRe: Coming to an Election near you! Deepfake Videos
by Moggy » Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:41 pm

OrangeRakoon wrote:
Moggy wrote:Seeing and hearing somebody say/do something is far more powerful than reading an email. And it will remain so even in a world where you can no longer trust video.

It goes beyond it not being possible to fake a video, the human mind will always take the combination of sound and vision as far more believable than a written account.


I think I'm just more hopeful that this isn't the case. Society adapts to new technology all the time.


While true, that doesn’t mean society adapts in a good or beneficial way.


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