Good result! We really needed to get a FF kill today. I support the idea of redunking, but I have been typing a long response prior to the kills, and here it is (updated slightly to reflect events since I started typing).
Hugo Weaving wrote:Jason Isaacs (0) - Jason is a wildcard for me. He's posting a lot of stats and has messaged me about Zendaya and him speaking with Ryan prior to his death, but have the stats helped? Has Jason been hiding behind those stats not really offering anything of value? It's all well and good posting a lot of stats, but Jason what are your suspicions outside of this 5?
To be honest, reading players comments and going on gut and feel is not my strong point, although I did push to kill Clint and I did message you last night something which turned out to be right, though in both cases I did not know these to be true, but there were flags which I recognised. I feel there are people who are much more experienced in these games who do this element really well and I haven't mastered that element yet, hence my vote today mirroring Ryan's suspects, as I recognise that was a strength of his. One real disadvantage for me is I am awful at remembering names & I struggle to remember who said what. But I'm pretty good with numbers and I want to contribute to a village win, so my goal throughout the game has been to bring something to the table. One of the key things that I have recognised is that the Etang has been an area which I think the majority of people still fail to understand is not being run to our full advantage. I have focussed a lot of my attention to this as I feel we will lose the game based on our current Etang approach and I want to change that.
My stats are only useful if they are understood, agreed and applied, and I've made it my goal to try to make this happen. Unfortunately I do not think that my stats have helped much at this point, probably because I've not been able to get the message across in a way that the majority of people can digest and this means that the approach has stayed the same (ie five fresh dunks every day). Here is my latest attempt. I will let you decide whether it is useful for the town. In this table, I have assumed 4 safe players based on role claims and seer outcome.
Current Position:
What this shows, is that based on the current numbers, if we carried out a seer tomorrow on the same tactic we have used since day one (5 new players), our odds of a getting a blue etang are close to impossible! With a few exceptions, the general consensus has been 'We should seer 5 players every day', whilst in my opinion, the only good seer result we have had was the blue one. Rather than putting in 5 players, putting in just 1 new player per day would serve us better at this point. If it turns red, we kill that player. If it turns blue, we have one more safe player and we can shoot in the remaining pool of suspects with a 50/50 chance of killing a Freedom Fighter. Red Etangs are a bad result - they literally tell us that there is at least one player who is bad and just leaves a question mark above everyone else. We don't know if our odds are better or worse than the non-seered players. I think that the majority of the people in the game have not got that point, but I'll continue to make it because the Etang is a new concept to this game and understanding the Etang mechanics is key to the villagers winning the game.
Something to note is that of course, there will be kills overnight and the stats will change slightly and I'm happy to refresh the tracker I have if anyone wants an up to date version.