Are You A Werewolf? - GAME OVER

furiosum wrote:Yeah, met was only ever one of two seers. I don't know if pyschicsykes could have contacted DML via e-mail, it just seems unlikely that by a relatively late stage in the game sykes didn't have someone he was prepared to get info out through in a less bizarre way than an anonymous e-mail.

I think its likely to be Sykes TBH, he certainly has my e-mail. That said, it doesn't have to be a seer, it can be anyone who was connected to one, or someone just wildly speculating. I don't know! However to pin it down to just Met doesn't make sense and feels like someone trying to pin a crime on me that I didn't commit.

DML wrote:Ok, I am awake. Songwriter is the wolf. I have had no contact from a Seer, but I have had contact from a special role who has. Quiz and ianf are just two other candidates, I am open to changing them...but Songwriter is a utterly confirmed wolf.

I have very little interest in rocking the boat for no reason. I have to because I have a wolf and I don't wish to risk any specials.

Sorry DML i read this wrong but then.

Furiosm said.

furiosum wrote:Anyway, as for my own suspicions I would point the finger of blame firmly at DML. Firstly his claim to have been anonymously contacted through his personal e-mail completely stinks. Only one of the cops would potentially have been able to do so had he wanted to, since met is one of the newcomers from sonm and so would almost certainly be unaware of DML's personal e-mail. Besides this, this allegedly happened at some point over night 5/day 6, which seems far too late in the game for the cops to not have someone they would be prepared to trust with such information without going through such a ridiculous loophole.

In addition, the choice of songwriter and the timing of it would both be perfect for a wolf sacrifice. Songwriter had been inactive and would no doubt have been contributing very little to the wolf cause. If anyone was to be sacrificed then he would be the perfect choice. Besides that, at the time songwriter was chosen the wolves had already lost 2 members. This meant that songwriter could die without the wolves losing a kill. Obviously sacrificing a wolf is always a risk, but it was as good a time as any would be to do so.

There is also the third point, by having songwriter lynched, DML wasted the public lynch. This isn't something I've come across before since mafia games are run differently over on SONM, but from what I can gather this is considered one of the most important phases of all for getting information as to possible wolves, and by putting up an inactive wolf alongside two villagers, he ensured that we gained nothing of use at all from it.

So yeah, DML has stunk something awful all game and in my opinion has been saved by being cop cleared. Since that is no longer relevant I can't look past him for the alpha.

Which i took to mean in the thread someone had mentioned met was the person who contacted you, DML. Sorry i'm getting confused. :s

Its okay DayumChris.

This is absolutely doing my head in now. The metagame is immense.

On the DML stuff I figured I'd have a look at his vaunted record of having regularly lynched wolves, since I've already said all there is to say about the songwriter incident, unless he brings up anything I can respond to.

First and foremost he was in the group that voted for Pacman as mayor, saving rik at the last minute. Not a lot on its own, but worth bearing in mind.

The next wolf he lynched as far as I can tell is Cheeky Devlin, but this is rather irrelevant since he was the 12th person to vote for Pacman as mayor and no-one else got more than 1 vote that day. Any wolf would have joined that bandwagon since there was no viable alternative.

The next time was when Edd put SEP and Jay Adama up for lynch on day 8. DML was on this occasion an early voter, being the 2nd person to vote for Edd's ultimately successful platform. However an important factor here was that the platform which was leading when DML voted contained one very important name, that of DML himself. Obviously he wouldn't want to lose a wolf, but compared to losing himself it would be an acceptable price. There was of course a third platform that day, which contained qikz and TAP, and was ultimately the main competitor. However at the time DML voted this platform had only just been started, and it is possible that he went for the wolf containing platform because at the time he felt it the more likely challenger to the one which he was on.

The next was when I brought up ironhide. However this is irrelevant for two reasons. Firstly, he made this move after the deadline, meaning the vote was irrelevant, and technically at deadline his vote was for the platform containing myself and met. Secondly, it didn't change the result. Even allowing it as before deadline it only increased the margin of the result, rather than changing the outcome. Possibly wanting to get in on a wolf lynch to appear pro-village.

He then backed satriales who ultimately put Jay up, but again satriales was the only option, and the votes for him were cast before he even made his candidates known.

After that, on day 13, he ran on a platform ultimately of ironhide and PCCD. Obviously ironhide was a wolf, but this platform only began an hour before deadline, where the platform of ironhide and jay adama had 5 votes already. Seems a pointless move perhaps designed to protect jay, given by that point ironhide was a dead man walking after his ridiculous survival attempt when I nominated him.

Next time was on day 15, when PPM put up ironhide and qikz. DML was the first to vote here, but since both platforms contained ironhide as the leading candidate it was largely irrelevant. Indeed it could even be argued that since qikz was arguably more likely than Errkal to get lynched as a result, this would be the platform the wolves would back. Certainly both of the wolves still alive at this stage, Luke and Ironhide, backed that platform.

Day 18 is another that on paper looks particularly positive for DML, since he voted for PPM's platform of Luke and abcd. However there are a few points that count against this incident. First, PPM was by far the more credible mayoral candidate at the time, if for no other reason than that he was a seered innocent and PCCD wasn't. More importantly, not only did he initially vote for PCCD's platform, and only later edit his vote over to PPM's platform, he was also very specific in that he was voting because he wanted to lynch abcd. I can't say for certain, but I know I had a similar view of abcd at the time, and so I would speculate that abcd was always going to get lynched had that platform been successful.

Particularly interestingly the following day Chalmers ran on a platform of PCCD and abcd, against one from PPM of Luke and abcd, and this time DML backed Chalmers' platform, which I think fits in nicely with my point that he was pushing for abcd to be lynched, and didn't see any real risk of Luke getting lynched, but when an alternative that didn't require that risk arose, he went for it.

Finally, on Day 20, we again had Luke in both of the platforms, but this time DML made a particularly interesting play. Shortly before the extended deadline to break the tie, he voted for PPM rather than shadow. This served no great purpose, except that had the votes remained tied at 4 no-one would have been lynched, which would obviously be the ideal scenario for the wolves. Since people had been voting but not updating the list at that point, it is entirely possible that he looked in 1 minute before the deadline, saw that it was tight but didn't have time to count the votes, and voted for the candidate who he could see was behind in the hope that he could tie the vote up.

So, while on paper DML appears to have voted reliably for wolves, when we dig down into the data there is only one day, that being day 8, where there was a realistic alternative which he didn't take, and given he was under personal pressure at the time he would obviously have been willing to throw another wolf under the bus if required. Besides this, on two occasions he made actively scummy plays in mayoral races, being of course his day 13 mayoral platform to protect Jay, and the desperate attempt to tie the votes on day 20.

I would also bring back up the mysterious death of qikz. As was stated by myself and others at the time, this was a bizarre choice for the wolves to kill. Qikz was repeatedly under suspicion, and no doubt would sooner or later have been lynched. However, the wolves killed him off instead. At the time I thought that this could have been a panicking wolf whom qikz had accused, and I looked at stu and albear because they had been jokingly accused immediately before qikz' death. However there was a third accusation qikz made which I largely ignored at the time because the accused had been seered as innocent, namely DML. The day before qikz died the two had been arguing for some time, with qikz openly questioning DML's claims to have received an anonymous e-mail about songwriter, much like I have been doing lately. Given we already have the day 20 tie-up attempt and the reaction to being accused himself on day 8, it would fit well with the growing picture of someone who responds rashly to pressure to have killed off qikz at that point when any rational wolf would have left him to be killed by the village.

Then we have the other unusual wolf kill, that of dblock. Dblock was inactive all game and no-one was taking him remotely seriously when he did pop up. However, on the day of his death, he popped up and claimed someone had leaked the names of the wolves to him. He never revealed who he considered to be wolves, and I would presume that he was just being a fool again, but this was the day that Luke, the last wolf we killed, was lynched. Given the image of DML as someone prone to rash moves under pressure, it would be completely fitting that, fearing dblock would name him, and under pressure as the last remaining wolf, he would choose to kill off the person who had claimed, however ridiculously, to have some inside information.

TL:DR The primary defence of DML, that he regularly lynched wolves, falls apart under investigation, and several rash moves under pressure become apparent in his voting patterns. He was also directly accused by qikz shortly before qikz was bizarrely killed by the wolves, and given this propensity for rash moves the death of dblock immediately after claiming to have been leaked the identities of the wolves, when better targets such as PPM were available, makes an awful lot more sense than it does at face value.

vote for me i know who the wolf

Dblock wrote:vote for me i know who the wolf

No deathposting.

I've PM'd Dblock to advise of his untimely demise.

strawberry float OFF YOU gooseberry fool banana splits!!!
Bullshit game and drumface...strawberry float off!

Good old Derek

furiosum wrote:On the DML stuff I figured I'd have a look at his vaunted record of having regularly lynched wolves, since I've already said all there is to say about the songwriter incident, unless he brings up anything I can respond to.

First and foremost he was in the group that voted for Pacman as mayor, saving rik at the last minute. Not a lot on its own, but worth bearing in mind.

The next wolf he lynched as far as I can tell is Cheeky Devlin, but this is rather irrelevant since he was the 12th person to vote for Pacman as mayor and no-one else got more than 1 vote that day. Any wolf would have joined that bandwagon since there was no viable alternative.

The next time was when Edd put SEP and Jay Adama up for lynch on day 8. DML was on this occasion an early voter, being the 2nd person to vote for Edd's ultimately successful platform. However an important factor here was that the platform which was leading when DML voted contained one very important name, that of DML himself. Obviously he wouldn't want to lose a wolf, but compared to losing himself it would be an acceptable price. There was of course a third platform that day, which contained qikz and TAP, and was ultimately the main competitor. However at the time DML voted this platform had only just been started, and it is possible that he went for the wolf containing platform because at the time he felt it the more likely challenger to the one which he was on.

The next was when I brought up ironhide. However this is irrelevant for two reasons. Firstly, he made this move after the deadline, meaning the vote was irrelevant, and technically at deadline his vote was for the platform containing myself and met. Secondly, it didn't change the result. Even allowing it as before deadline it only increased the margin of the result, rather than changing the outcome. Possibly wanting to get in on a wolf lynch to appear pro-village.

He then backed satriales who ultimately put Jay up, but again satriales was the only option, and the votes for him were cast before he even made his candidates known.

After that, on day 13, he ran on a platform ultimately of ironhide and PCCD. Obviously ironhide was a wolf, but this platform only began an hour before deadline, where the platform of ironhide and jay adama had 5 votes already. Seems a pointless move perhaps designed to protect jay, given by that point ironhide was a dead man walking after his ridiculous survival attempt when I nominated him.

Next time was on day 15, when PPM put up ironhide and qikz. DML was the first to vote here, but since both platforms contained ironhide as the leading candidate it was largely irrelevant. Indeed it could even be argued that since qikz was arguably more likely than Errkal to get lynched as a result, this would be the platform the wolves would back. Certainly both of the wolves still alive at this stage, Luke and Ironhide, backed that platform.

Day 18 is another that on paper looks particularly positive for DML, since he voted for PPM's platform of Luke and abcd. However there are a few points that count against this incident. First, PPM was by far the more credible mayoral candidate at the time, if for no other reason than that he was a seered innocent and PCCD wasn't. More importantly, not only did he initially vote for PCCD's platform, and only later edit his vote over to PPM's platform, he was also very specific in that he was voting because he wanted to lynch abcd. I can't say for certain, but I know I had a similar view of abcd at the time, and so I would speculate that abcd was always going to get lynched had that platform been successful.

Particularly interestingly the following day Chalmers ran on a platform of PCCD and abcd, against one from PPM of Luke and abcd, and this time DML backed Chalmers' platform, which I think fits in nicely with my point that he was pushing for abcd to be lynched, and didn't see any real risk of Luke getting lynched, but when an alternative that didn't require that risk arose, he went for it.

Finally, on Day 20, we again had Luke in both of the platforms, but this time DML made a particularly interesting play. Shortly before the extended deadline to break the tie, he voted for PPM rather than shadow. This served no great purpose, except that had the votes remained tied at 4 no-one would have been lynched, which would obviously be the ideal scenario for the wolves. Since people had been voting but not updating the list at that point, it is entirely possible that he looked in 1 minute before the deadline, saw that it was tight but didn't have time to count the votes, and voted for the candidate who he could see was behind in the hope that he could tie the vote up.

So, while on paper DML appears to have voted reliably for wolves, when we dig down into the data there is only one day, that being day 8, where there was a realistic alternative which he didn't take, and given he was under personal pressure at the time he would obviously have been willing to throw another wolf under the bus if required. Besides this, on two occasions he made actively scummy plays in mayoral races, being of course his day 13 mayoral platform to protect Jay, and the desperate attempt to tie the votes on day 20.

I would also bring back up the mysterious death of qikz. As was stated by myself and others at the time, this was a bizarre choice for the wolves to kill. Qikz was repeatedly under suspicion, and no doubt would sooner or later have been lynched. However, the wolves killed him off instead. At the time I thought that this could have been a panicking wolf whom qikz had accused, and I looked at stu and albear because they had been jokingly accused immediately before qikz' death. However there was a third accusation qikz made which I largely ignored at the time because the accused had been seered as innocent, namely DML. The day before qikz died the two had been arguing for some time, with qikz openly questioning DML's claims to have received an anonymous e-mail about songwriter, much like I have been doing lately. Given we already have the day 20 tie-up attempt and the reaction to being accused himself on day 8, it would fit well with the growing picture of someone who responds rashly to pressure to have killed off qikz at that point when any rational wolf would have left him to be killed by the village.

Then we have the other unusual wolf kill, that of dblock. Dblock was inactive all game and no-one was taking him remotely seriously when he did pop up. However, on the day of his death, he popped up and claimed someone had leaked the names of the wolves to him. He never revealed who he considered to be wolves, and I would presume that he was just being a fool again, but this was the day that Luke, the last wolf we killed, was lynched. Given the image of DML as someone prone to rash moves under pressure, it would be completely fitting that, fearing dblock would name him, and under pressure as the last remaining wolf, he would choose to kill off the person who had claimed, however ridiculously, to have some inside information.

TL:DR The primary defence of DML, that he regularly lynched wolves, falls apart under investigation, and several rash moves under pressure become apparent in his voting patterns. He was also directly accused by qikz shortly before qikz was bizarrely killed by the wolves, and given this propensity for rash moves the death of dblock immediately after claiming to have been leaked the identities of the wolves, when better targets such as PPM were available, makes an awful lot more sense than it does at face value.

It easy to scrutinise good play, but I don't have to scrutinise bad play. You've barely done any good for the cause, rarely voting in a wolf despite being active, is that not extremely suspicious?

I maintain a desperate wolf has to break me and Shadow up, and all this scrutiny I suspect is desperation at play. I am not your wolf, everything I have told you is the truth. The only leap of faith you have to take with me is over that e-mail.

So basically my critiques aren't worth anything because allegedly I've been a bad player. Surely the critiques are far more important than who they're coming from?

As for defending myself, I did enough large-scale defending over the last couple of days, but all I would point out is that while I haven't contributed much, the one time I put serious effort in I found a wolf whom no-one else had even considered, lets see if I can go 2 for 2.

furiosum wrote:So basically my critiques aren't worth anything because allegedly I've been a bad player. Surely the critiques are far more important than who they're coming from?

As for defending myself, I did enough large-scale defending over the last couple of days, but all I would point out is that while I haven't contributed much, the one time I put serious effort in I found a wolf whom no-one else had even considered, lets see if I can go 2 for 2.

Critiques are fine, I can accept them. For instance, I maintain Shadow is the most innocent player here.

However, I do not need to write an essay for you to summarise your possible guilt.

Pretty active/votes often
Barely ever has voted for wolves.
Now shifting the blame onto the voting block of me and Shadow at the exact time a wolf basically has to.
Has been up for lynch and has avoided death.

The argument against you is pretty strong.

But then, that said...I know you are wrong about me. Its quite funny seeing someone taking so much time to get completely the wrong end of the stick.

Goddamn it playing this game frustrates me.

My votes are in, I'm commited now. Choosing the second was horrible, because I really blind bar my faith in Shadow.

Just over 30 minutes to get your votes in.

In the interests of complete transparency. This is the PM I received from PPM a few minutes before he was killed last night.

PaperMacheMario wrote:I'm starting to suspect DML. I've had a look at his posts in the thread and, despite voting for a mayor with a Wolf in it 5 times (according to his list), they've been some weird votes. Last Saturday he ran on a platform of Ironhide and PCCD, when there was already a platform with a decent amount of support with Ironhide and Jay - two wolves - as the candidates. I see absolutely no reason not to back this and to run on your own platform with Ironhide and another, when he's already stated that he suspects Ironhide.

He backed my platform of Ironhide and Qikz over the more popular platform of Ironhide and Errkal. If he wanted Ironhide lynched, surely he'd vote for the one that's most likely to win? Although Qikz was the one running with those candidates so that could explain it.

http://grcade.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=37834&p=3689513#p3689513 - votes for a mayor lynching Ironhide just after the deadline has passed. Another time he's "voted for a mayor to lynch a Wolf".

Also with the whole Songwriter business, if he was seered as a Villager and therefore entrusted with the information that Songwriter is a Wolf... he can't ignore it, can he? If he's a Wolf, he can't not act on it because the Seer would know something was up.

He also makes a lot of "yeah we got a Wolf" posts and when accused by Dblock passes the attention back to Dblock while laughing it off.

I also think it's the reason I've been left alive so long, and you to a certain extent. He knows we trust him, and obviously wants players who will back him up left in the game to see him to the finish line.

What do you think? I just hope neither of us die tonight because right now you're the only person I completely trust left in the game right now.

Now, I should stress - Every single piece of communication I've had with DML has seemed open and honest. He hasn't given me any reason to suspect he's a wolf.

There's just one thing. Why were PPM, me and DML kept alive over the last few days when Cribs, DBlock and Hyperion were killed. It just doesn't add up, I'm trying to come up with a rationale that makes sense for the wolf to do that.

Could you imagine how easy it would be for the wolf if you took PPM, me and DML out of the game at this point and had DBlock, Hyperion and Cribs in our place?

This is so stressful.

The deadline has now passed. I will have the results up shortly.

I feel sick.

GG wolf

WP

He we go then.

Have you nailed the final Werewolf or is this game going down to the wire?

Let's find out.

PTO.