Are You Infected? Day Fourteen - Emperor BID0

Rightey wrote:This looks confusing but also fun, I'm just worried that the time zone difference will mean that the thread will move very fast while I'm asleep.

I get the feeling that unless there's plenty of special roles or twists the thread might not move that quickly at all - surely there won't be much to discuss? With just one person to look for unless the alpha inexplicably somehow massively manages to slip up then I don't really see what we can talk about beyond a certain extent.

euan707 wrote:I'm panicking pretty similarly to a headless chicken. I imagine I'll only get worse as I get more confused. Feel free to laugh behind my back. And infront of my face.

The game hasn't really started yet

Rocsteady wrote:

Rightey wrote:This looks confusing but also fun, I'm just worried that the time zone difference will mean that the thread will move very fast while I'm asleep.

I get the feeling that unless there's plenty of special roles or twists the thread might not move that quickly at all - surely there won't be much to discuss? With just one person to look for unless the alpha inexplicably somehow massively manages to slip up then I don't really see what we can talk about beyond a certain extent.

We just need to see how it pans out. I'm sure Moggy doesn't even know! I reckon activity will snowball as more people get infected. I like the fact that being infected completely flips your view on the game rather than forcing you out of the game.

MEGATON...


... Well, nah, not really. But it seemed people are having trouble getting a feel for the character of this new format, and there were a few requests for number-crunching, so I ran some simulations and WHAT HAPPENED NEXT WAS SO INSPIRING.



First up, before presenting my results, I should be up-front about what my computer program is and does:

• This was a quick job, and could be all wrong, so please check the code if you're going to somehow use this as a basis for further MEGATONS. (However, in defence of my couple hours of work, I'll remark that the code gives the kind of curves I was expecting to see and so should be at least in the right ball park.)
• It simulates completely random decisions. Random leaders, random lynches, and random infections.
• Only the human, infected, and alpha roles were taken into consideration, as there is no plausible and tractable way to teach a computer program (e.g.) how a seer would act or what might happen if one were infected. (I'm a scientist, not a game AI programmer!)
• I obviously can't account for any special events that Moggy might run.

Here is the complete code to the program so anyone that wants to can critique, fact-check, or update it. In the spirit of good science, it would be great if any player with the ability to read Python looks over this and checks it seems sensible. Please, don't take my word for it: verify it for yourself. You will need the two main Python scientific computing libraries, Numpy and Matplotlib, to run it. Good results can be had from as few as a thousand iterations, but I used one million for the sake of certainty.



The results are as follows:


Probability of a human victory: 38.1%
Probability of an infected victory: 61.9%

Again, this is a rough-and-ready approximation to the actual game and certainly shouldn't be read into too deeply. It should however be remarked upon that, at least in this model, the long-term odds are against us: most games in the simulation ended with infected victory after 24-26 days. However, we are not random actors. With intelligent play over the next three weeks, and by taking care to utilise any special roles or events, I'm sure we have every chance.



Further work: I may update this soon to have more realistic lynches, i.e. if the random leader is an infected then only a human should be targeted. This assumes that the infected will all be informed actors, though, and I wanted to keep it simple for the first attempt.

I couldn't resist adding in intelligent infected before I went to bed. In this new model, leaders are still randomly chosen, but any infected leader will always kill a human. The updated code is available here.





Probability of a human victory: 28.6%
Probability of an infected victory: 71.4%

In theory the odds worsen if the infected coordinate their efforts, and they win most games after 22-24 days in this model...



... However! ...



... It is important to remember that this is a simulation based on random actors. While the theory says it improves their odds, in reality it might be better for us if the infected act coherently, as inevitably that will create a pattern that we could spot and use to our advantage.


I hope this has been helpful; this concludes the Proceedings of the First Conference on the Applied Are You A Werewolf? Sciences. Now I'm going to go to bed.

I don't even understand the graphs, let alone Python code.

Really want this to get going, I don't think it will be at all easy especially as the infected won't know who each other are, which makes them coordinating to kill off humans much much harder as although there are two sides known no one other than the alpha knows who is on which side, so if the infected did want to kill off people they first need to try and work out who is human and not.

The real advantage here is with the Alpha as he is on his won so doesn't need to PM people and find anyone, he can just make a list of humans and work down it effectively as the infected won't want to announce themselves so there isn't much of a need to go for inactives or actives or at least as I see it, just scatter gun you infectids across the player list and see what happens, especially as we can only kill one a day and he can only infect one a day, worse comes to it for him and we hit an infected he can replace it pretty quick.

Waking up on another beautiful Martian morning it appears to our intrepid heroes that they don't have a care in the world.

And then they hear the sound of glass smashing, a loud cursing and a few sneezes....

The Alpha has broken the vial and is currently feeling a little under the weather. He has until 8pm to decide who should join him.

HERE WE GO!!!

7 x 64 = ?

Let's kill Karl as soon as possible. Anything to get rid of those graphs.

Why would we elect a mayor on Mars? I propose we elect a King and just listen to him.

Investigating the smash, curse and sneeze the group end up outside of the laboratory. On the floor they can see a broken vial and some luminous green snot pooled on the floor.

On the lab door there is a note

Dear civilians,

I recently found an alien disease here on Mars and quickly sealed it away in a vial. I did this to protect us all as the disease looks to be a mind controlling parasite that would run amok if allowed to spread through the colony. Through my negligence it appears that I dropped this outside and that one of you has found the vial and has now become infected. This Alpha infected will stop at nothing to infect everyone and will destroy everything if not stopped.

I have acted quickly and have locked up the laboratory. The 3 keycards (blue, red and yellow) that will open the doors have been distributed amongst trusted personnel, however these people may not be trustworthy for long. I have also managed to obtain a sample of the Alpha's blood for analysing and have passed this onto a resourceful chap who has been on several secret missions for me. Finally there is a scientist amongst you who may be able to find a cure if he can manage to open the lab and start work on the blood sample.

By necessity it would be a disaster if the Alpha was to find out who these people are, they will be keeping their identities secret but you might be able to find a way to bring them all together and defeat the parasite by the power of science. strawberry float yeah!

If you can't get into the lab then just kill the Alpha to stop the infection.

I need to investigate some other avenues and will be back as soon as I can to help out.

Yours

Dr Vilos Cohaagen

I feel as though not giving the scientist the keycard to the labs was another mistake in a long list of catastrophic mistakes

Moggy wrote:Interesting stuff

Very good... So there are 5 people who can help bring down this virus as long as they are united? What happens if one of them gets infected? I assume that we lose the chance to cure the virus?

That means we currently have roughly a 1/60 chance of getting the Alpha via a lynch but the Alpha has a 1/12 chance of infecting a crucial human player.

But seen as there is only 1 alpha it means if they make a mistake and we can spot them it gives us the win, so there is a lot of pressure on the Alpha to stay hidden.

Errkal wrote:But seen as there is only 1 alpha it means if they make a mistake and we can spot them it gives us the win, so there is a lot of pressure on the Alpha to stay hidden.

They would have to be a colossal idiot to make that kind of mistake! Hardly difficult to stay hidden. I hope there are some special humans who can help us detect the dirty horrible infectious bastards.

In AYAW, the best way for the wolves to secure a victory is for the Alpha, knowing he can't be seered for his true role, to get out there, network, and identify those special roles that pose a risk to his pack before swiftly eliminating them and taking control of the game.

This game is basically the opposite. As the game starts with only one bad guy I don't believe there is a seer type role present in the mix. If this is true, the Alpha also has no real need to get out there and network, in fact all he has to do is quietly go about his business. He can only be killed via the Mayoral kill - it is in his interest to stay under the radar! Our first instinct when reading the rules is to begin targeting the actives so that the infected can't sway the votes. Once you've delved into it a bit more it actually isn't quite so clear cut.

Moggy wrote:
I have acted quickly and have locked up the laboratory. The 3 keycards (blue, red and yellow) that will open the doors have been distributed amongst trusted personnel, however these people may not be trustworthy for long. I have also managed to obtain a sample of the Alpha's blood for analysing and have passed this onto a resourceful chap who has been on several secret missions for me. Finally there is a scientist amongst you who may be able to find a cure if he can manage to open the lab and start work on the blood sample.

By necessity it would be a disaster if the Alpha was to find out who these people are, they will be keeping their identities secret but you might be able to find a way to bring them all together and defeat the parasite by the power of science. strawberry float yeah!

Could the key carders,sample holder and scientist just all come out in thread, get together and get the cure straight away?

Karl is the Alpha. Clearing trying to hide behind graphs.
Come on people, get your head in the game. T