Brexit Thread 2

[Moggy]

Uh Oh.

EU warns states to step up preparations for no-deal Brexit scenario

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0713/978465-brexit/

It'll be fine, where else could Germany sell cars?

[KK]

We are all viewing Trump trade statement as a Brexit intervention. But the bigger picture here is Trump's desire to weaken the EU as a trading bloc. That's why he told Macron to leave and why he wants UK to do so. This is not an idle aside, it is US trade strategy.

Or Russia's...

[Lagamorph]

Quick, nobody support May!

[Benzin]

Why would anyone want to know what DM readers get up to in bed?

[Garth]

According to May just now on The Andrew Marr Show, Trump's Brexit negotiation advice was that she should sue the EU.

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1 ... .mp4?tag=3

[Lagamorph]

According to May just now on The Andrew Marr Show, Trump's Brexit negotiation advice was that she should sue the EU.

"If in doubt, sue someone" is a pretty good summary of the American way of life really.

[Garth]

twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018422232534732800

[more heat than light]

What percentage of people think we SHOULD remain in the EU and stop asking the public because the public are strawberry floating stupid.

[Garth]

twitter.com/britainelects/status/1018426064337494016

[Meep]

I have changed my mind on this. I give up. We should just leave. It's useless trying to protect people from themselves. That's not how democracy is supposed to work. It should be about voting and living with the consequences, good or bad. I don't think I am wrong on brexit but I can't go on pretending my view counts for more than anyone else's. Peter Mandelson is correct in that if we pursue the current plan we will just end up with something that is objectively worse than the current arrangement from every possible angle.

My only main concern is the divide between England and other regions of the UK. The English seem to want out of the European social democratic model of high welfare, high taxes and high regulations and to move towards a more liberal, American-style society with a minimal safety net and sacrifice manufacturing to focus more strong on services and the City. Meanwhile, places like Scotland and Northern Ireland seem to want the opposite. It seems increasingly hard to see how we can honour both these stances, both of which are equally legitimate, within the same state.

I think we should go ahead with a clean break from the EU and give time for the various regions of the UK to get used to the new economic model. Then we can have another independence referendum for Scotland and hopefully the change since brexit will have been beneficial through some miracle and they will decide to stay, if not then they can leave and pursue democratic socialism, with NI probably following soon after.

[That]

I genuinely don't think No-Deal Hard Brexit would win in a referendum though?

And our democracy was never supposed to be about referenda in the first place. I question the democratic validity of referenda full stop.

[Squinty]

SUE THE EU!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Meep]

I genuinely don't think No-Deal Hard Brexit would win in a referendum though?

And our democracy was never supposed to be about referenda in the first place. I question the democratic validity of referenda full stop.

People voted to leave the EU. A logical interpretation of that is not to say "okay, let's a have an arrangement worse than the one we have with the EU at present". I think our politician should at least try to create something better, even if it runs counter to established wisdom.

Also, I wouldn't be too worried about hard brexit. It's easy to exaggerate the impact it would have. In the short term it is going to wipe about another 10% off the currency but most of the economic damage will be in manufacturing, which is a comparatively small part of the economy and largely based in areas there are very pro-brexit and so they can't be too upset about it. What we will need to do is accelerate urbanisation and encourage migration to the population to the main cities, which needs support from large scale housing projects, and focus on upping the service side of the economy. This has upsides as running down the population and industrial activity in non-urban areas will have significant environmental benefits and also reduce our dependency on fossil fuels.

Public spending is the second challenge because obviously we are going to need to reduce it as much as possible to remain competitive outside the EU. Currently we have large number of the population sitting on large and valuable assets in the form of housing and I think if they can afford to pay for their own social and health care they probably should. Universal healthcare can be maintained at the point of use by having means tests for those on lower incomes and insurance plans for middle-earners.

It's best to think of it like a rerun of the reforms made in the 80s. There were winners and losers back then and there will be winners and losers this time as well.

[Moggy]

I genuinely don't think No-Deal Hard Brexit would win in a referendum though?

And our democracy was never supposed to be about referenda in the first place. I question the democratic validity of referenda full stop.

Those poll results look weird. I find it hard to believe that so many people would have shifted position towards Brexit. It may well be that the majority of people support it, but not in such overwhelming numbers.

[Meep]

Unless there is an overwhelming support for cancelling brexit it won't happen because the polls are biased in favour of remain because A) most polls are taken in areas more likely to be pro-remain and B) the remain vote skews higher the younger the demographic, or in other words in negative correlation with likelihood to actually vote. This is the main reason I have given up hope of stopping it happening.

Also, even if the vote did pass, would the EU even permit the UK to cancel after proving itself such an unreliable partner?

[That]

I genuinely don't think No-Deal Hard Brexit would win in a referendum though?And our democracy was never supposed to be about referenda in the first place. I question the democratic validity of referenda full stop.

People voted to leave the EU. A logical interpretation of that is not to say "okay, let's a have an arrangement worse than the one we have with the EU at present". I think our politician should at least try to create something better, even if it runs counter to established wisdom.

Your despair is centred on the idea that people knew remotely what they were voting for. People actually voted for a load of impossible nonsense. "We'll leave, we'll be better off, we'll have loads more money, it'll save the NHS, the EU will bend over backwards to accommodate us". If you could somehow put it to another more realistic vote that said "Look, we can either stay or get absolutely strawberry floated on every level, there are no upsides, full stop, that's a fact", and the government got that message across without far-right media interference, I really genuinely think Remain would win. (As Moggy remarks, I know there have been some weird polls on this lately. Personally I think they probably reflect something different -- people being sick of hearing about it, maybe.)But that's besides the point because the above demonstrates exactly why referenda are a suboptimal democratic process -- people are too ignorant and are being constantly pounded by too many lies for a referendum on any complicated issue to be fair. That's why we elect representatives and pay them handsomely. They don't always understand what they're talking about but they're better informed than a guy on the street. I would be 100% fine with just ignoring it. Representative democracy is harmed by referenda. The "test" should have been if there was a majority of pro-Leave MPs, and we were absolute light years away from that position. I don't really agree with the rest of your post, I don't think any silver linings - which are hypothetical and speculative - are as important as the things we're losing out on: the growth, the on balance generally pro-consumer and pro-worker EU legislation, the freedom of movement, the institutional links, the development funds, and all that. If we can stay in the customs union and retain some of those, that's objectively better than losing it all. It might not be as good as if we remained completely, but saying "ah well we started to strawberry float everything up so we may as well go all the way" is a fallacy.

[Moggy]

Unless there is an overwhelming support for cancelling brexit it won't happen because the polls are biased in favour of remain because A) most polls are taken in areas more likely to be pro-remain and B) the remain vote skews higher the younger the demographic, or in other words in negative correlation with likelihood to actually vote. This is the main reason I have given up hope of stopping it happening.

I don’t think anybody has suggested we are likely to get it cancelled?

The rest of your post there makes little sense, the poll results posted showed people in favour of hard Brexit and people in favour of no further public vote. That doesn’t tie in with your claimed Remain bias.

Also, even if the vote did pass, would the EU even permit the UK to cancel after proving itself such an unreliable partner?

There’s nothing in Article 50 that stops it being rescinded. I’m sure the EU27 would be asked if Britain tried to rescind it, they’d probably agree and the EU would almost certainly lose in court if they tried to block Britain staying in.

[Tineash]

It's best to think of it like a rerun of the reforms made in the 80s. There were winners and losers back then and there will be winners and losers this time as well.

What the strawberry float am I reading??

[Tineash]

Wait, you really live in Belfast?

Well I hope you enjoy the rolling blackouts while the UK government recalls the emergency power generators from Afghanistan and starts floating them over on barges

[Moggy]

It's best to think of it like a rerun of the reforms made in the 80s. There were winners and losers back then and there will be winners and losers this time as well.

What the strawberry float am I reading??