The Labour ‘split’ is the wrong thing, for the right reasons. And it almost certainly guarantees that there'll be a hard Brexit.
There is much to admire within Corbyn's policies, but he's been lacking when it comes to tackling antisemitism, and he's wrong to back Brexit. So the breakaway group aren't wrong in feeling frustrated. On antisemitism, Corbyn failed to unify his party and control or discipline those causing the issue. And why wouldn't he; this was a man who defied control and discipline as a party MP previously, frequently ignoring the whip. But in failing to clearly define the boundaries between criticism of religious doctrine and abuse of religious people, or between anti-Israeli and antisemitic views, he allowed the party, particularly at grassroots, to become an uncomfortable and sometimes toxic place to be.
But isn't the point of the Remain argument essentially that it's better to stay in and seek change, than to go it alone without the strength of numbers? So how then can this split be justified? Both the chances of Labour pushing against Brexit, and pushing against antisemitism, are increased by having a larger Remain element opposed to intolerance. By leaving the table these MPs abandon their influence and chance to reform.
And there's an obvious further criticism to make: in seeking a second vote on the issue of Brexit, these MPs make themselves vulnerable to a second vote from their constituents, who voted for them precisely because they're Labour candidates.
By removing the moderate voice from the party, these 7 MPs have simply made it more likely that Labour can pursue its own Brexit and ignore calls for a second referendum. And unless they can cause a similar Tory split (which won't happen, because Tories always stick together no matter what: party first, every time, no matter the issue) then they have no hope of causing change themselves. The only meaningful parliamentary group that could have had a chance of pushing for a second vote, has now had its Remain core diluted. And a hard Brexit will follow; there's no appetite for a soft Brexit leading either party any more.
MPs shot down May's deal either seeking a harder Brexit or a second referendum. But the deal she offered was a harder Brexit than the one offered to voters in the 2016 referendum. Then, single market access was promised. Not any more. The deal was voted down, but those that voted it down in hope of Remaining haven't a chance left; Tories want Brexit, Labour want Brexit. There's only tiny parliamentary arithmetic in favour of staying in now. The game is up. When we leave in March, we'll leave without a deal. And if the rumours of a subsequent June election are true, then the chance of mitigating the impact of a hard Brexit are reduced, because of the decision of the Independent Group.
We’ll either see a Tory victory led by a Brexiteer PM who'll use it as a chance to weaken worker's rights, slash taxes and further widen disparity between rich and poor in our country. Or, an ideologically driven Labour will win, pursuing its own course. With the economy ruined, it'll be too poor to implement its radical 2017 manifesto, instead lumbered with the blame of bringing misery to the nation. Labour will again be seen as the party of economic failure, and the consequence will be subsequent Conservative dominance for another generation.
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I mostly agree with you Dan, but I am not sure this group leaving actually harms Remain. Remain is pretty much dead politically (maybe not publically), Theresa May doesn't want it, Corbyn doesn't want it. Chuka and his band of merry MPs might have been a moderate voice, but they were a very small voice and had been ignored since Corbyn took over.
If they could get some Tory MPs to quit and join the Independent Group, then there might be a chance. But I can't see Tories leaving their party, even Anna Soubry has said before that she would not crash her party to stop Brexit.
I'll believe it when I see it - and I hope I see it - but the one thing the Tories are better than anyone else at is sticking together. Party before country, as we've seen so often recently. They'll not do anything to jeopardise their power.
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May has convinced herself she's in a game of chicken that she can't lose.
In her mind, Either the EU blinks and caves on the backstop, meaning Parliament will pass her deal. Or the EU doesn't blink and, faced with the prospect of no deal, Parliament blinks and in a panic passes her deal to avoid it.
It amazes me that May thinks it's fine to keep going back to Parliament with the same shitty deal, but doesn't think it is right to go back to the public.
At this stage I guess we have to hope her shitty deal goes through. It's appallingly bad, but it is better than No Deal.
