Karl wrote:The problem with "food will still get imported" is that we don't have the infrastructure to handle that many non-EU food imports. Who checks the manifests and who inspects the food for safety? Can we do that quickly & efficiently enough to keep shelves full of food coming to every supermarket up and down the country? The answer is probably "no". A possibility is that we will end up with no or very lax inspections, and then the shelves will fill again, but we won't have any assurances the food coming in is safe.
Speaking as someone who works for an importer, of both food and non food products, this is only one part of the nightmare scenario Brexit is likely to be.
The port of Felixstowe, the largest shipping port in the UK, and one of the biggest in Northern Europe, is currently still running at about 2/3rds capacity after an IT systems failure over 8 weeks ago. This was a switch to a system that the port owner already operates elsewhere, but it went wrong, knocked out their site communications for a weekend, and they're still struggling to recover. That's a relatively minor (compared to the requirements of Brexit) change, that's caused massive disruption. The biggest threat is going to be the need to implement a new customs system, and the delays that this will cause. It won't just be more stuff requiring customs checks, but whether the current system will work with the increased volume. If not, a new system needs to be in place, which will impact all inbound trade. The current temporary delays are already causing shipping lines to move vessels elsewhere in Europe and omit UK calls, to redeliver stock later, and that's with other UK ports running at full capacity. If customs control delays cause a significant backlog at all ports, that takes a long time to clear, the UK risks being demoted as an important European call. Major vessels calling into the UK will come less frequently, and the stock will take longer to get off the port. Imports of perishables will be much more difficult, or more expensive if they have to pay for faster options, if they're even available.
I also know that port health inspections on food goods are largely dependent on the shipper and the consignee having a good relationship with the port authorities. If we suddenly start importing food from a lot of new origins, port health authorities will want to start checking a lot more boxes coming off boats. This will totally depend on their capacity, though. They can't process more boxes than they have the manpower to check, which means a sudden shift to a lot of new food origins will probably see a lot of food products coming in completely unchecked. It's then up to the individual retailers to decide that they're happy with that stock on their shelves.